Daily Papers

Distant and weak supervision allow to obtain large amounts of labeled training data quickly and cheaply, but these automatic annotations tend to contain a high amount of errors. A popular technique to overcome the negative effects of these noisy labels is noise modelling where the underlying noise process is modelled. In this work, we study the quality of these estimated noise models from the theoretical side by deriving the expected error of the noise model. Apart from evaluating the theoretical results on commonly used synthetic noise, we also publish NoisyNER, a new noisy label dataset from the NLP domain that was obtained through a realistic distant supervision technique. It provides seven sets of labels with differing noise patterns to evaluate different noise levels on the same instances. Parallel, clean labels are available making it possible to study scenarios where a small amount of gold-standard data can be leveraged. Our theoretical results and the corresponding experiments give insights into the factors that influence the noise model estimation like the noise distribution and the sampling technique.

When facing data with imbalanced classes or groups, practitioners follow an intriguing strategy to achieve best results. They throw away examples until the classes or groups are balanced in size, and then perform empirical risk minimization on the reduced training set. This opposes common wisdom in learning theory, where the expected error is supposed to decrease as the dataset grows in size. In this work, we leverage extreme value theory to address this apparent contradiction. Our results show that the tails of the data distribution play an important role in determining the worst-group-accuracy of linear classifiers. When learning on data with heavy tails, throwing away data restores the geometric symmetry of the resulting classifier, and therefore improves its worst-group generalization.

Tensor randomized Kaczmarz (TRK) methods are efficient row-action solvers for tensor linear systems under the t-product framework. We study their behavior under a doubly noisy perturbation model. In this model, both the system tensor and the right-hand side tensor are corrupted. We first analyze standard TRK and derive an expected error recursion with two terms. One term is contractive, and the other is a persistent perturbation term. This explains the noise-limited and semi-convergent behavior that can occur when the observed tensor system is inconsistent. We then introduce a spectrally damped tensor randomized Kaczmarz method (SD-TRK). We prove an expected error recursion for SD-TRK that separates error propagation from noise injection. The bound makes explicit a speed-robustness trade-off. We also give an FFT-based implementation that applies the damped update slice-wise in the Fourier domain. This implementation allows frequency-dependent damping parameters in practice. Numerical experiments on synthetic tensor systems illustrate the stabilization behavior of SD-TRK relative to standard TRK in noisy and ill-conditioned settings. We also include a two-pass image reconstruction comparison under the same noisy reconstruction pipeline.

In industrial settings, surface defects on steel can significantly compromise its service life and elevate potential safety risks. Traditional defect detection methods predominantly rely on manual inspection, which suffers from low efficiency and high costs. Although automated defect detection approaches based on Convolutional Neural Networks(e.g., Mask R-CNN) have advanced rapidly, their reliability remains challenged due to data annotation uncertainties during deep model training and overfitting issues. These limitations may lead to detection deviations when processing the given new test samples, rendering automated detection processes unreliable. To address this challenge, we first evaluate the detection model's practical performance through calibration data that satisfies the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) condition with test data. Specifically, we define a loss function for each calibration sample to quantify detection error rates, such as the complement of recall rate and false discovery rate. Subsequently, we derive a statistically rigorous threshold based on a user-defined risk level to identify high-probability defective pixels in test images, thereby constructing prediction sets (e.g., defect regions). This methodology ensures that the expected error rate (mean error rate) on the test set remains strictly bounced by the predefined risk level. Additionally, we observe a negative correlation between the average prediction set size and the risk level on the test set, establishing a statistically rigorous metric for assessing detection model uncertainty. Furthermore, our study demonstrates robust and efficient control over the expected test set error rate across varying calibration-to-test partitioning ratios, validating the method's adaptability and operational effectiveness.

Standard neural networks struggle to generalize under distribution shifts in computer vision. Fortunately, combining multiple networks can consistently improve out-of-distribution generalization. In particular, weight averaging (WA) strategies were shown to perform best on the competitive DomainBed benchmark; they directly average the weights of multiple networks despite their nonlinearities. In this paper, we propose Diverse Weight Averaging (DiWA), a new WA strategy whose main motivation is to increase the functional diversity across averaged models. To this end, DiWA averages weights obtained from several independent training runs: indeed, models obtained from different runs are more diverse than those collected along a single run thanks to differences in hyperparameters and training procedures. We motivate the need for diversity by a new bias-variance-covariance-locality decomposition of the expected error, exploiting similarities between WA and standard functional ensembling. Moreover, this decomposition highlights that WA succeeds when the variance term dominates, which we show occurs when the marginal distribution changes at test time. Experimentally, DiWA consistently improves the state of the art on DomainBed without inference overhead.

An agent can improve its behavior within an unresolved problem by changing how it acts and which experience it retains. We propose MMLA-RSI, a recursive self-improvement scheme with two implementations in Memory-Mediated Learning Architecture: Reasoning-Time Training (RTT) changes the policy state Φ, while Reasoning-Time Memory Adaptation (RTMA) changes authoritative memory M. Each route also makes its adaptation method an object of improvement. A current numerical updater trains the policy proposing its successor; a current memory manager chooses the records available to the process proposing its successor. An independently admitted successor takes over the same role in the next generation. We give bounded executable rule languages, shared task/proposal interfaces, and one algorithm for either route or their composition. The RTT instance changes scalar schedules in a clipped-momentum update. The RTMA instance chooses NULL or a complete-row write with possible eviction. A fixed interpreter, trusted committer, and independent evaluator bound what can change. State versions, read closures, and conditional properties describe causal execution, accepted transitions, and finite work. Existing numerical-component studies motivate the construction. In four-candidate program selection, retaining LARC feedback updates reduces expected error by 24.65 and 36.65 percentage points for two trained initializations. In chronological continuous-integration replay, feedback binding is positive while retention increases loss. Completed SQL studies improve substantially over an unadapted substrate but do not establish the required additional online benefit. These results characterize their declared components. The two recursive routes and their joint realization are specified here; their beneficial recursive chains and discovery efficiency remain to be evaluated.

We develop a rigorous mathematical analysis of zero-shot learning with attributes. In this setting, the goal is to label novel classes with no training data, only detectors for attributes and a description of how those attributes are correlated with the target classes, called the class-attribute matrix. We develop the first non-trivial lower bound on the worst-case error of the best map from attributes to classes for this setting, even with perfect attribute detectors. The lower bound characterizes the theoretical intrinsic difficulty of the zero-shot problem based on the available information -- the class-attribute matrix -- and the bound is practically computable from it. Our lower bound is tight, as we show that we can always find a randomized map from attributes to classes whose expected error is upper bounded by the value of the lower bound. We show that our analysis can be predictive of how standard zero-shot methods behave in practice, including which classes will likely be confused with others.

Self-distillation (SD) is the process of first training a teacher model and then using its predictions to train a student model with the same architecture. Specifically, the student's objective function is big(xi*ell(teacher's predictions, student's predictions) + (1-xi)*ell(given labels, student's predictions)big), where ell is some loss function and xi is some parameter in [0,1]. Empirically, SD has been observed to provide performance gains in several settings. In this paper, we theoretically characterize the effect of SD in two supervised learning problems with noisy labels. We first analyze SD for regularized linear regression and show that in the high label noise regime, the optimal value of xi that minimizes the expected error in estimating the ground truth parameter is surprisingly greater than 1. Empirically, we show that xi > 1 works better than xi leq 1 even with the cross-entropy loss for several classification datasets when 50\% or 30\% of the labels are corrupted. Further, we quantify when optimal SD is better than optimal regularization. Next, we analyze SD in the case of logistic regression for binary classification with random label corruption and quantify the range of label corruption in which the student outperforms the teacher in terms of accuracy. To our knowledge, this is the first result of its kind for the cross-entropy loss.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

ufakzeka-karar is an open Turkish decision model with 182,494,466 parameters. Given a Turkish text and questions of a fixed answer type (a choice, a level on an ordered scale, or yes or no), it returns a temperature-scaled probability for every option and an expected error that serves as a "not sure" signal, without generating text and in one CPU forward pass for up to ten options. Built on the lab's ufakzeka-1-base, its head scores each option blind to the others at shared positions, so the answer does not depend on option order. A sequential head trained with shuffled options was about as accurate but changed 2.3 to 2.8 percent of its answers when only the option order changed; REINFORCE lost 10.2 points (0.102) of macro F1 to cross-entropy. On the open set of HakemBench v1.0 (4,275 questions, 7 tracks) the released model ranks 7th of 16 rows with a composite of 0.660 (95% interval 0.642 to 0.677). Temperature scaling lowers calibration error (smooth ECE) on the development set but raises it on held-out support questions, from 0.027 to 0.045 for the first scored run, which never trained on them; the released model later trained on them, so its 0.036 to 0.064 is not an unseen-question test. The released model is the last of three runs scored on HakemBench, and its numbers are not blind. The second run's new training data was aimed at the first run's errors on the full test set in guardrails, moderation and customer support, and the released run was trained after the second run's guardrail results on the full test set were read, under a protocol fixed in writing before any of its data, code or runs. All its numbers come after these readings; its guardrail, moderation and customer support numbers carry the flag "shaped by reading the test results". With every model scored on the other four tracks only, its composite is 0.678, 6th of 16. Weights and code are under Apache-2.0.

Recent advances in machine learning have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various applications. However, ensuring the calibration of probabilistic predictions remains a significant challenge. Despite efforts to enhance model calibration, the rigorous statistical evaluation of model calibration remains less explored. In this work, we develop confidence intervals the ell_2 Expected Calibration Error (ECE). We consider top-1-to-k calibration, which includes both the popular notion of confidence calibration as well as full calibration. For a debiased estimator of the ECE, we show asymptotic normality, but with different convergence rates and asymptotic variances for calibrated and miscalibrated models. We develop methods to construct asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the ECE, accounting for this behavior as well as non-negativity. Our theoretical findings are supported through extensive experiments, showing that our methods produce valid confidence intervals with shorter lengths compared to those obtained by resampling-based methods.

Large-scale machine learning and data mining methods routinely distribute computations across multiple agents to parallelize processing. The time required for the computations at the agents is affected by the availability of local resources and/or poor channel conditions giving rise to the "straggler problem". As a remedy to this problem, we employ Unequal Error Protection (UEP) codes to obtain an approximation of the matrix product in the distributed computation setting to provide higher protection for the blocks with higher effect on the final result. We characterize the performance of the proposed approach from a theoretical perspective by bounding the expected reconstruction error for matrices with uncorrelated entries. We also apply the proposed coding strategy to the computation of the back-propagation step in the training of a Deep Neural Network (DNN) for an image classification task in the evaluation of the gradients. Our numerical experiments show that it is indeed possible to obtain significant improvements in the overall time required to achieve the DNN training convergence by producing approximation of matrix products using UEP codes in the presence of stragglers.

We propose Dataset Reinforcement, a strategy to improve a dataset once such that the accuracy of any model architecture trained on the reinforced dataset is improved at no additional training cost for users. We propose a Dataset Reinforcement strategy based on data augmentation and knowledge distillation. Our generic strategy is designed based on extensive analysis across CNN- and transformer-based models and performing large-scale study of distillation with state-of-the-art models with various data augmentations. We create a reinforced version of the ImageNet training dataset, called ImageNet+, as well as reinforced datasets CIFAR-100+, Flowers-102+, and Food-101+. Models trained with ImageNet+ are more accurate, robust, and calibrated, and transfer well to downstream tasks (e.g., segmentation and detection). As an example, the accuracy of ResNet-50 improves by 1.7% on the ImageNet validation set, 3.5% on ImageNetV2, and 10.0% on ImageNet-R. Expected Calibration Error (ECE) on the ImageNet validation set is also reduced by 9.9%. Using this backbone with Mask-RCNN for object detection on MS-COCO, the mean average precision improves by 0.8%. We reach similar gains for MobileNets, ViTs, and Swin-Transformers. For MobileNetV3 and Swin-Tiny we observe significant improvements on ImageNet-R/A/C of up to 10% improved robustness. Models pretrained on ImageNet+ and fine-tuned on CIFAR-100+, Flowers-102+, and Food-101+, reach up to 3.4% improved accuracy.

Large Language Models (LLMs) perform well on many reasoning benchmarks, yet existing evaluations rarely assess their ability to distinguish between meaningful semantic relations and genuine unrelatedness. We introduce CORE (Comprehensive Ontological Relation Evaluation), a dataset of 225K multiple-choice questions spanning 74 disciplines, together with a general-domain open-source benchmark of 203 rigorously validated questions (Cohen's Kappa = 1.0) covering 24 semantic relation types with equal representation of unrelated pairs. A human baseline from 1,000+ participants achieves 92.6% accuracy (95.1% on unrelated pairs). In contrast, 29 state-of-the-art LLMs achieve 48.25-70.9% overall accuracy, with near-ceiling performance on related pairs (86.5-100%) but severe degradation on unrelated pairs (0-41.35%), despite assigning similar confidence (92-94%). Expected Calibration Error increases 2-4x on unrelated pairs, and a mean semantic collapse rate of 37.6% indicates systematic generation of spurious relations. On the CORE 225K MCQs dataset, accuracy further drops to approximately 2%, highlighting substantial challenges in domain-specific semantic reasoning. We identify unrelatedness reasoning as a critical, under-evaluated frontier for LLM evaluation and safety.

Single-prompt accuracy is the dominant way to benchmark language models, but it can miss reliability failures that matter. We evaluate a 15-model open-weight corpus, with the main reliability analyses focused on 10 instruct models across five classification and reasoning benchmarks under five prompt variants each, measuring accuracy, token-probability calibration, verbal-confidence calibration, verbal parse rate, and prompt-perturbation spread for every (model x dataset x variant) cell. We find three broad results. First, evaluation design can materially change the conclusion. Switching Expected Calibration Error (ECE) token from a raw to a label-set-normalised definition changes per-cell calibration by a mean absolute 0.149. More strikingly, pairing a chain-of-thought prompt with a first-character evaluator on ARC-Challenge reduces apparent accuracy by 72-88% across all five primary models; two independent repair procedures recover 93.8% and 102.7% of the lost performance, indicating an evaluator-side rather than model-side failure. Second, confidence signals are fragile. On MMLU-Pro, every primary model verbally reports confidence substantially above both its accuracy and its token-probability confidence on the same rows, and verbal parse rate can collapse for a single model on a single prompt variant. Third, prompt robustness does not track parameter count reliably. Across 10 instruct models, the correlation between model size and prompt-perturbation spread ranges from -0.244 to 0.474 across benchmarks. Taken together, these results show that reliability conclusions for small language models depend not only on the model being evaluated, but also on the evaluation pipeline used to measure it. We argue that calibration definitions, evaluator logic, verbal parseability, and prompt robustness should be reported explicitly when making reliability claims.

There are increasing concerns about malicious attacks on autonomous vehicles. In particular, inaudible voice command attacks pose a significant threat as voice commands become available in autonomous driving systems. How to empirically defend against these inaudible attacks remains an open question. Previous research investigates utilizing deep learning-based multimodal fusion for defense, without considering the model uncertainty in trustworthiness. As deep learning has been applied to increasingly sensitive tasks, uncertainty measurement is crucial in helping improve model robustness, especially in mission-critical scenarios. In this paper, we propose the Multimodal Fusion Framework (MFF) as an intelligent security system to defend against inaudible voice command attacks. MFF fuses heterogeneous audio-vision modalities using VGG family neural networks and achieves the detection accuracy of 92.25% in the comparative fusion method empirical study. Additionally, extensive experiments on audio-vision tasks reveal the model's uncertainty. Using Expected Calibration Errors, we measure calibration errors and Monte-Carlo Dropout to estimate the predictive distribution for the proposed models. Our findings show empirically to train robust multimodal models, improve standard accuracy and provide a further step toward interpretability. Finally, we discuss the pros and cons of our approach and its applicability for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems.

Training a model to predict the next step in a concurrent program is harder than it looks: two runs of the same program from the same trace prefix can produce different next events, both valid, because the scheduler is nondeterministic. A model trained against a single label is learning to guess one outcome of a random process. We turn this around and use the nondeterminism as a training signal. We run each program many times, aggregate the observed next events into an empirical distribution, and fine-tune a 7B model to match that distribution with a KL objective. On 798 held-out predictions drawn from real production Go bugs (CockroachDB, Kubernetes, gRPC, etcd), fine-tuning on fewer than a thousand traces reaches 36.2% accuracy, ahead of Gemini 3.5 Flash used zero-shot (34.8%) and the same model without fine-tuning (28.6%). Distribution training matches cross-entropy on accuracy (35.8% vs. 36.2%) while reducing Expected Calibration Error from 0.205 to 0.169. We also derive a formal goroutine-leak signature for a class of select-blocked goroutines where P(GoUnblock)=0 holds by scheduler semantics, not by learning. We release the dataset, trained adapters, and all tooling.

Masked Autoencoders (MAEs) learn generalizable representations for image, text, audio, video, etc., by reconstructing masked input data from tokens of the visible data. Current MAE approaches for videos rely on random patch, tube, or frame-based masking strategies to select these tokens. This paper proposes AdaMAE, an adaptive masking strategy for MAEs that is end-to-end trainable. Our adaptive masking strategy samples visible tokens based on the semantic context using an auxiliary sampling network. This network estimates a categorical distribution over spacetime-patch tokens. The tokens that increase the expected reconstruction error are rewarded and selected as visible tokens, motivated by the policy gradient algorithm in reinforcement learning. We show that AdaMAE samples more tokens from the high spatiotemporal information regions, thereby allowing us to mask 95% of tokens, resulting in lower memory requirements and faster pre-training. We conduct ablation studies on the Something-Something v2 (SSv2) dataset to demonstrate the efficacy of our adaptive sampling approach and report state-of-the-art results of 70.0% and 81.7% in top-1 accuracy on SSv2 and Kinetics-400 action classification datasets with a ViT-Base backbone and 800 pre-training epochs.

Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures calibration remains a challenge: expected calibration error, the most popular metric, has numerous flaws which we outline, and there is no clear empirical understanding of how its choices affect conclusions in practice, and what recommendations there are to counteract its flaws. In this paper, we perform a comprehensive empirical study of choices in calibration measures including measuring all probabilities rather than just the maximum prediction, thresholding probability values, class conditionality, number of bins, bins that are adaptive to the datapoint density, and the norm used to compare accuracies to confidences. To analyze the sensitivity of calibration measures, we study the impact of optimizing directly for each variant with recalibration techniques. Across MNIST, Fashion MNIST, CIFAR-10/100, and ImageNet, we find that conclusions on the rank ordering of recalibration methods is drastically impacted by the choice of calibration measure. We find that conditioning on the class leads to more effective calibration evaluations, and that using the L2 norm rather than the L1 norm improves both optimization for calibration metrics and the rank correlation measuring metric consistency. Adaptive binning schemes lead to more stablity of metric rank ordering when the number of bins vary, and is also recommended. We open source a library for the use of our calibration measures.

Fine-tuning for large language models (LLMs) typically requires substantial amounts of high-quality supervised data, which is both costly and labor-intensive to acquire. While synthetic data generation has emerged as a promising solution, existing approaches frequently suffer from factual inaccuracies, insufficient long-tail coverage, simplistic knowledge structures, and homogenized outputs. To address these challenges, we introduce GraphGen, a knowledge graph-guided framework designed for three key question-answering (QA) scenarios: atomic QA, aggregated QA, and multi-hop QA. It begins by constructing a fine-grained knowledge graph from the source text. It then identifies knowledge gaps in LLMs using the expected calibration error metric, prioritizing the generation of QA pairs that target high-value, long-tail knowledge. Furthermore, GraphGen incorporates multi-hop neighborhood sampling to capture complex relational information and employs style-controlled generation to diversify the resulting QA data. Experimental results on knowledge-intensive tasks under closed-book settings demonstrate that GraphGen outperforms conventional synthetic data methods, offering a more reliable and comprehensive solution to the data scarcity challenge in supervised fine-tuning. The code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/open-sciencelab/GraphGen.

Reliable usage of object detectors require them to be calibrated -- a crucial problem that requires careful attention. Recent approaches towards this involve (1) designing new loss functions to obtain calibrated detectors by training them from scratch, and (2) post-hoc Temperature Scaling (TS) that learns to scale the likelihood of a trained detector to output calibrated predictions. These approaches are then evaluated based on a combination of Detection Expected Calibration Error (D-ECE) and Average Precision. In this work, via extensive analysis and insights, we highlight that these recent evaluation frameworks, evaluation metrics, and the use of TS have notable drawbacks leading to incorrect conclusions. As a step towards fixing these issues, we propose a principled evaluation framework to jointly measure calibration and accuracy of object detectors. We also tailor efficient and easy-to-use post-hoc calibration approaches such as Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression specifically for object detection task. Contrary to the common notion, our experiments show that once designed and evaluated properly, post-hoc calibrators, which are extremely cheap to build and use, are much more powerful and effective than the recent train-time calibration methods. To illustrate, D-DETR with our post-hoc Isotonic Regression calibrator outperforms the recent train-time state-of-the-art calibration method Cal-DETR by more than 7 D-ECE on the COCO dataset. Additionally, we propose improved versions of the recently proposed Localization-aware ECE and show the efficacy of our method on these metrics as well. Code is available at: https://github.com/fiveai/detection_calibration.

Tool-using agents that act in the world need to be both useful and safe. Well-calibrated model confidences can be used to weigh the risk versus reward of potential actions, but prior work shows that many models are poorly calibrated. Inspired by interpretability literature exploring the internals of models, we propose a novel class of model-internal confidence estimators (MICE) to better assess confidence when calling tools. MICE first decodes from each intermediate layer of the language model using logitLens and then computes similarity scores between each layer's generation and the final output. These features are fed into a learned probabilistic classifier to assess confidence in the decoded output. On the simulated trial and error (STE) tool-calling dataset using Llama3 models, we find that MICE beats or matches the baselines on smoothed expected calibration error. Using MICE confidences to determine whether to call a tool significantly improves over strong baselines on a new metric, expected tool-calling utility. Further experiments show that MICE is sample-efficient, can generalize zero-shot to unseen APIs, and results in higher tool-calling utility in scenarios with varying risk levels. Our code is open source, available at https://github.com/microsoft/mice_for_cats.

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) complements the knowledge of Large Language Models (LLMs) by leveraging external information to enhance response accuracy for queries. This approach is widely applied in several fields by taking its advantage of injecting the most up-to-date information, and researchers are focusing on understanding and improving this aspect to unlock the full potential of RAG in such high-stakes applications. However, despite the potential of RAG to address these needs, the mechanisms behind the confidence levels of its outputs remain underexplored, although the confidence of information is very critical in some domains, such as finance, healthcare, and medicine. Our study focuses the impact of RAG on confidence within the medical domain under various configurations and models. We evaluate confidence by treating the model's predicted probability as its output and calculating Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) scores based on the probabilities and accuracy. In addition, we analyze whether the order of retrieved documents within prompts calibrates the confidence. Our findings reveal large variation in confidence and accuracy depending on the model, settings, and the format of input prompts. These results underscore the necessity of optimizing configurations based on the specific model and conditions.

Masked language modeling is a widely used method for learning language representations, where the model predicts a randomly masked word in each input. However, this approach typically considers only a single correct answer during training, ignoring the variety of plausible alternatives that humans might choose. This issue becomes more pronounced when the input text is short, as the possible word distribution tends to have higher entropy, potentially causing the model to become overconfident in its predictions. To mitigate this, we propose a novel confidence regularizer that adaptively adjusts the regularization strength based on the input length. Experiments on the GLUE and SQuAD benchmarks show that our method improves both accuracy and expected calibration error

Deep models for retinal optical coherence tomography (OCT) classification report high accuracy but rarely report whether their confidence can be trusted -- a gap that matters when a wrong-but-confident reading delays sight-saving treatment. We pair a hybrid convolutional-Transformer encoder with a gradient-boosting (XGBoost) classification head and a three-part clinical safety layer: confidence calibration, out-of-distribution (OOD) rejection, and per-prediction uncertainty flagging. On four-class OCT (84,495 scans) the model reaches 95.4% accuracy while cutting calibration error twelve-fold (expected calibration error, ECE = 0.0024), so the confidence it reports tracks its true accuracy. To our knowledge this is the first OCT classifier to validate all three safety mechanisms jointly, with public weights and reproducible multi-seed evaluation.

Immunohistochemistry (IHC) provides information on protein expression in tissue sections and is commonly used to support pathology diagnosis and disease triage. While AI models for H\&E-stained slides show promise, their applicability to IHC is limited due to domain-specific variations. Here we introduce HPA10M, a dataset that contains 10,495,672 IHC images from the Human Protein Atlas with comprehensive metadata included, and encompasses 45 normal tissue types and 20 major cancer types. Based on HPA10M, we trained iSight, a multi-task learning framework for automated IHC staining assessment. iSight combines visual features from whole-slide images with tissue metadata through a token-level attention mechanism, simultaneously predicting staining intensity, location, quantity, tissue type, and malignancy status. On held-out data, iSight achieved 85.5\% accuracy for location, 76.6\% for intensity, and 75.7\% for quantity, outperforming fine-tuned foundation models (PLIP, CONCH) by 2.5--10.2\%. In addition, iSight demonstrates well-calibrated predictions with expected calibration errors of 0.0150-0.0408. Furthermore, in a user study with eight pathologists evaluating 200 images from two datasets, iSight outperformed initial pathologist assessments on the held-out HPA dataset (79\% vs 68\% for location, 70\% vs 57\% for intensity, 68\% vs 52\% for quantity). Inter-pathologist agreement also improved after AI assistance in both held-out HPA (Cohen's κ increased from 0.63 to 0.70) and Stanford TMAD datasets (from 0.74 to 0.76), suggesting expert--AI co-assessment can improve IHC interpretation. This work establishes a foundation for AI systems that can improve IHC diagnostic accuracy and highlights the potential for integrating iSight into clinical workflows to enhance the consistency and reliability of IHC assessment.

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

Miscalibration in Large Language Models (LLMs) undermines their reliability, highlighting the need for accurate confidence estimation. We introduce CCPS (Calibrating LLM Confidence by Probing Perturbed Representation Stability), a novel method analyzing internal representational stability in LLMs. CCPS applies targeted adversarial perturbations to final hidden states, extracts features reflecting the model's response to these perturbations, and uses a lightweight classifier to predict answer correctness. CCPS was evaluated on LLMs from 8B to 32B parameters (covering Llama, Qwen, and Mistral architectures) using MMLU and MMLU-Pro benchmarks in both multiple-choice and open-ended formats. Our results show that CCPS significantly outperforms current approaches. Across four LLMs and three MMLU variants, CCPS reduces Expected Calibration Error by approximately 55% and Brier score by 21%, while increasing accuracy by 5 percentage points, Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve by 4 percentage points, and Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve by 6 percentage points, all relative to the strongest prior method. CCPS delivers an efficient, broadly applicable, and more accurate solution for estimating LLM confidence, thereby improving their trustworthiness.

Predicting mortality-related outcomes from images offers the prospect of accessible, noninvasive, and scalable health screening. We present a method that leverages pretrained vision transformer foundation models to estimate remaining lifespan from facial and whole-body images, alongside robust uncertainty quantification. We show that predictive uncertainty varies systematically with the true remaining lifespan, and that this uncertainty can be effectively modeled by learning a Gaussian distribution for each sample. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art mean absolute error (MAE) of 7.48 years on an established Dataset, and further improves to 4.79 and 5.07 years MAE on two new, higher-quality datasets curated and published in this work. Importantly, our models provide well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, as demonstrated by a bucketed expected calibration error of 0.62 years. While not intended for clinical deployment, these results highlight the potential of extracting medically relevant signals from images. We make all code and datasets available to facilitate further research.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to structured clinical data, yet whether they can recognize the limits of their own knowledge on such tasks remains unexplored. We study this question through the lens of cross-model attribution divergence with the goal of reducing epistemic uncertainty for structured tasks, comparing Qwen 2.5 7B and XGBoost on a prediction task via attribution divergence analysis. We report four findings. First, LLM verbalized confidence is epistemically vacuous, it outputs a near-constant (0.856-0.937) regardless of whether accuracy is 49% or 75.3%, tracking prompt format rather than prediction quality. Second, the LLM exhibits an inverse difficulty effect: accuracy drops to 64.8% when XGBoost is 99% correct, but matches XGBoost (73.8% vs. 73.1%) when it is moderately uncertain. Third, few-shot examples and SHAP-derived feature evidence are orthogonal, super-additive interventions: they reduce the Attribution Disagreement Score (ADS) from 1.54 to 0.38 and improve accuracy from 49% to 75.3% without training. Fourth, a cross-model calibrator that determined LLM reliability using attribution divergence signals reduces expected calibration error from 0.254 to 0.080, replacing uninformative verbalized confidence with patient-specific reliability estimates, without accessing model internals or requiring repeated inference. We frame these findings as a cold start problem for LLMs on structured data and outline a path toward genuine epistemic self-awareness.

Probabilistic decoding in Large Language Models (LLMs) often yields inconsistent outputs, particularly on complex or long-form questions. Self-Consistency (SC) mitigates this for short-form QA by majority voting over exact strings, whereas Universal Self-Consistency (USC) and Weighted Unigram Consistency Score (WUCS) extend to long-form responses but lose accuracy on short-form benchmarks. We introduce Latent Self-Consistency (LSC), which selects the most semantically consistent response using learnable token embeddings. LSC's lightweight forward processing of summary tokens only introduces negligible runtime overhead (at most 0.9%) on top of standard decoding of the base LLM, and requires no changes to the model architecture. Across 6 short-form and 5 long-form reasoning benchmarks (e.g., MATH, MMLU, TruthfulQA), LSC surpasses SC, USC, and WUCS on both short-form and long-form on average performance, while adding negligible computational overhead on vanilla inference. These results position LSC as a reliable consistency-selection method that works effectively across various answer formats. Additionally, LSC provides well-calibrated confidence estimates, maintaining low expected calibration error across both answer formats.

Confidence calibration is central to providing accurate and interpretable uncertainty estimates, especially under safety-critical scenarios. However, we find that existing calibration algorithms often overlook the issue of *proximity bias*, a phenomenon where models tend to be more overconfident in low proximity data (i.e., data lying in the sparse region of the data distribution) compared to high proximity samples, and thus suffer from inconsistent miscalibration across different proximity samples. We examine the problem over 504 pretrained ImageNet models and observe that: 1) Proximity bias exists across a wide variety of model architectures and sizes; 2) Transformer-based models are relatively more susceptible to proximity bias than CNN-based models; 3) Proximity bias persists even after performing popular calibration algorithms like temperature scaling; 4) Models tend to overfit more heavily on low proximity samples than on high proximity samples. Motivated by the empirical findings, we propose ProCal, a plug-and-play algorithm with a theoretical guarantee to adjust sample confidence based on proximity. To further quantify the effectiveness of calibration algorithms in mitigating proximity bias, we introduce proximity-informed expected calibration error (PIECE) with theoretical analysis. We show that ProCal is effective in addressing proximity bias and improving calibration on balanced, long-tail, and distribution-shift settings under four metrics over various model architectures. We believe our findings on proximity bias will guide the development of *fairer and better-calibrated* models, contributing to the broader pursuit of trustworthy AI. Our code is available at: https://github.com/MiaoXiong2320/ProximityBias-Calibration.

Recently, the problem of inaccurate learning targets in crowd counting draws increasing attention. Inspired by a few pioneering work, we solve this problem by trying to predict the indices of pre-defined interval bins of counts instead of the count values themselves. However, an inappropriate interval setting might make the count error contributions from different intervals extremely imbalanced, leading to inferior counting performance. Therefore, we propose a novel count interval partition criterion called Uniform Error Partition (UEP), which always keeps the expected counting error contributions equal for all intervals to minimize the prediction risk. Then to mitigate the inevitably introduced discretization errors in the count quantization process, we propose another criterion called Mean Count Proxies (MCP). The MCP criterion selects the best count proxy for each interval to represent its count value during inference, making the overall expected discretization error of an image nearly negligible. As far as we are aware, this work is the first to delve into such a classification task and ends up with a promising solution for count interval partition. Following the above two theoretically demonstrated criterions, we propose a simple yet effective model termed Uniform Error Partition Network (UEPNet), which achieves state-of-the-art performance on several challenging datasets. The codes will be available at: https://github.com/TencentYoutuResearch/CrowdCounting-UEPNet.

Longitudinal clinical notes contain rich evidence of how patients evolve over time, but converting this signal into training supervision for clinical prediction remains challenging. We extend Foresight Learning to clinical prediction by converting time-ordered MIMIC-III notes into examples consisting of past patient context, a natural-language question about a possible future event, and a label resolved from later documentation. This process yields 6,900 prediction examples from 702 admissions across medications, procedures, organ support, microbiology, and mortality. A small LoRA adapter trained on these examples improves over the prompted base model, reducing expected calibration error from 0.1269 to 0.0398 and Brier score from 0.199 to 0.145, while slightly outperforming GPT-5 point estimates on held-out questions. The approach enables reusable clinical prediction supervision from longitudinal notes without hand-engineered structured features or endpoint-specific classifiers.

Stacking heterogeneous vision backbones (CNNs, ViTs, and hybrids) is the de facto recipe for accuracy, calibration, and robustness, yet two coupled pathologies limit its returns. Prediction-space multicollinearity ill-conditions the meta-learner's Gram matrix, inflating weight variance and producing brittle solutions on a thin manifold. Calibration collapse compounds constituent miscalibration through naive linear stacking, so adding more models can hurt expected calibration error (ECE). Existing remedies, ridge regularization, greedy selection, model soups, and SWAG address at most one of these issues, and none jointly target conditioning and calibration in heterogeneous prediction pools. We introduce CORE-STACK+, a preconditioning pipeline with four components: (i) a kernelized redundancy filter that removes non-linear inter-model dependencies invisible to Pearson correlation, using Centered Kernel Alignment (CKA) [23]; (ii) a <15K-parameter differentiable meta-feature gate that learns per-sample attention over ensemble statistics; (iii) a spectrum-adaptive Ridge penalty lambda^{star}=lmax(Chat)/SNR(Chat) derived from a Marchenko-Pastur signal-noise decomposition, eliminating nested cross-validation; and (iv) a Laplace-approximate Bayesian blender replacing inverse-RMSE heuristics. We prove a PAC-Bayes excess-risk bound that, for the first time, jointly accounts for prediction-space redundancy and meta-learner capacity. Across six benchmarks, CORE-STACK+ delivers +1.8% top-1 on ImageNet-1K, -4.2 mCE on ImageNet-C, +0.9 mIoU on ADE20K, and +1.3 AP on COCO, while reducing retained models by 35-57% and inference FLOPs by up to 41%. ECE improves 2.1times over deep ensembles without post hoc temperature scaling.

Interactive agents repeatedly choose among a finite set of actions, labels, or ordinal outcomes. Generating a free-form response for each choice adds latency and complicates the interface between a model and its environment. We present Intern-Decision, a family of 0.8B, 2B, and 4B multimodal decision models that return structured choices and candidate probabilities from text and optional images. Our autoregressive masked language modeling objective places one decision placeholder per field in a complete assistant JSON skeleton. Ground-truth symbols appear only in supervision, while all fields are evaluated in a single causal forward pass using the backbone's native language-model head. The 4B model achieves a 90.02% unweighted average accuracy across seven evaluation suites, compared with 88.74% for Jev v1.13.0. For a fixed 289-token request with three fields on one RTX 4090, mean latency is 44.16 ms for the 4B model and approximately 33--34 ms for the smaller models. On a separate 96-case known-distribution pilot, temperature scaling reduces expected multiclass Brier from 0.628 to 0.550 and expected calibration error from 0.213 to 0.089. A confidence-based handoff study on 111 public Jevbench-Hard items improves accuracy from 82/111 (73.87%) to 97/111 (87.39%) by routing 42 items to Atria-Dawn-Preview. We also describe qualitative game, visual interface, and browser demonstrations. These results support compact decision models as a practical component of larger agent systems.

The increasing capabilities of large language models (LLMs) raise opportunities for artificial general intelligence but concurrently amplify safety concerns, such as potential misuse of AI systems, necessitating effective AI alignment. Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a promising pathway towards AI alignment but brings forth challenges due to its complexity and dependence on a separate reward model. Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has been proposed as an alternative, and it remains equivalent to RLHF under the reverse KL regularization constraint. This paper presents f-DPO, a generalized approach to DPO by incorporating diverse divergence constraints. We show that under certain f-divergences, including Jensen-Shannon divergence, forward KL divergences and alpha-divergences, the complex relationship between the reward and optimal policy can also be simplified by addressing the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions. This eliminates the need for estimating the normalizing constant in the Bradley-Terry model and enables a tractable mapping between the reward function and the optimal policy. Our approach optimizes LLMs to align with human preferences in a more efficient and supervised manner under a broad set of divergence constraints. Empirically, adopting these divergences ensures a balance between alignment performance and generation diversity. Importantly, f-DPO outperforms PPO-based methods in divergence efficiency, and divergence constraints directly influence expected calibration error (ECE).

Calibration measures and reliability diagrams are two fundamental tools for measuring and interpreting the calibration of probabilistic predictors. Calibration measures quantify the degree of miscalibration, and reliability diagrams visualize the structure of this miscalibration. However, the most common constructions of reliability diagrams and calibration measures -- binning and ECE -- both suffer from well-known flaws (e.g. discontinuity). We show that a simple modification fixes both constructions: first smooth the observations using an RBF kernel, then compute the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of this smoothed function. We prove that with a careful choice of bandwidth, this method yields a calibration measure that is well-behaved in the sense of (B{\l}asiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran 2023a) -- a consistent calibration measure. We call this measure the SmoothECE. Moreover, the reliability diagram obtained from this smoothed function visually encodes the SmoothECE, just as binned reliability diagrams encode the BinnedECE. We also provide a Python package with simple, hyperparameter-free methods for measuring and plotting calibration: `pip install relplot\`.

Deep clustering has exhibited remarkable performance; however, the overconfidence problem, i.e., the estimated confidence for a sample belonging to a particular cluster greatly exceeds its actual prediction accuracy, has been overlooked in prior research. To tackle this critical issue, we pioneer the development of a calibrated deep clustering framework. Specifically, we propose a novel dual-head deep clustering pipeline that can effectively calibrate the estimated confidence and the actual accuracy. The calibration head adjusts the overconfident predictions of the clustering head using regularization methods, generating prediction confidence and pseudo-labels that match the model learning status. This calibration process also guides the clustering head in dynamically selecting reliable high-confidence samples for training. Additionally, we introduce an effective network initialization strategy that enhances both training speed and network robustness. Extensive experiments demonstrate the proposed calibrated deep clustering framework not only surpasses state-of-the-art deep clustering methods by approximately 10 times in terms of expected calibration error but also significantly outperforms them in terms of clustering accuracy.

Current graph neural networks (GNNs) that tackle node classification on graphs tend to only focus on nodewise scores and are solely evaluated by nodewise metrics. This limits uncertainty estimation on graphs since nodewise marginals do not fully characterize the joint distribution given the graph structure. In this work, we propose novel edgewise metrics, namely the edgewise expected calibration error (ECE) and the agree/disagree ECEs, which provide criteria for uncertainty estimation on graphs beyond the nodewise setting. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed edgewise metrics can complement the nodewise results and yield additional insights. Moreover, we show that GNN models which consider the structured prediction problem on graphs tend to have better uncertainty estimations, which illustrates the benefit of going beyond the nodewise setting.

This paper introduces the FinSen dataset that revolutionizes financial market analysis by integrating economic and financial news articles from 197 countries with stock market data. The dataset's extensive coverage spans 15 years from 2007 to 2023 with temporal information, offering a rich, global perspective with 160,000 records on financial market news. Our study leverages causally validated sentiment scores and LSTM models to enhance market forecast accuracy and reliability. Utilizing the FinSen dataset, we introduce an innovative Focal Calibration Loss, reducing Expected Calibration Error (ECE) to 3.34 percent with the DAN 3 model. This not only improves prediction accuracy but also aligns probabilistic forecasts closely with real outcomes, crucial for the financial sector where predicted probability is paramount. Our approach demonstrates the effectiveness of combining sentiment analysis with precise calibration techniques for trustworthy financial forecasting where the cost of misinterpretation can be high. Finsen Data can be found at [this github URL](https://github.com/EagleAdelaide/FinSen_Dataset.git).

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

Deep learning (DL) has become the dominant approach for medical image segmentation, yet ensuring the reliability and clinical applicability of these models requires addressing key challenges such as annotation variability, calibration, and uncertainty estimation. This is why we created the Calibration and Uncertainty for multiRater Volume Assessment in multiorgan Segmentation (CURVAS), which highlights the critical role of multiple annotators in establishing a more comprehensive ground truth, emphasizing that segmentation is inherently subjective and that leveraging inter-annotator variability is essential for robust model evaluation. Seven teams participated in the challenge, submitting a variety of DL models evaluated using metrics such as Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC), Expected Calibration Error (ECE), and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). By incorporating consensus and dissensus ground truth, we assess how DL models handle uncertainty and whether their confidence estimates align with true segmentation performance. Our findings reinforce the importance of well-calibrated models, as better calibration is strongly correlated with the quality of the results. Furthermore, we demonstrate that segmentation models trained on diverse datasets and enriched with pre-trained knowledge exhibit greater robustness, particularly in cases deviating from standard anatomical structures. Notably, the best-performing models achieved high DSC and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. This work underscores the need for multi-annotator ground truth, thorough calibration assessments, and uncertainty-aware evaluations to develop trustworthy and clinically reliable DL-based medical image segmentation models.

Despite their widespread applications, Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle to express uncertainty, posing a challenge for reliable deployment in high stakes and safety critical domains like clinical diagnostics. Existing standard baseline methods such as model logits and elicited probabilities produce overconfident and poorly calibrated estimates. In this work, we propose Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), a likelihood-free Bayesian inference, based approach that treats LLMs as a stochastic simulator to infer posterior distributions over predictive probabilities. We evaluate our ABC approach on two clinically relevant benchmarks: a synthetic oral lesion diagnosis dataset and the publicly available GretelAI symptom-to-diagnosis dataset. Compared to standard baselines, our approach improves accuracy by up to 46.9\%, reduces Brier scores by 74.4\%, and enhances calibration as measured by Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and predictive entropy.

Quantizing the weights of a neural network has two steps: (1) Finding a good low bit-complexity representation for weights (which we call the quantization grid) and (2) Rounding the original weights to values in the quantization grid. In this paper, we study the problem of rounding optimally given any quantization grid. The simplest and most commonly used way to round is Round-to-Nearest (RTN). By rounding in a data-dependent way instead, one can improve the quality of the quantized model significantly. We study the rounding problem from the lens of discrepancy theory, which studies how well we can round a continuous solution to a discrete solution without affecting solution quality too much. We prove that given m=poly(1/ε) samples from the data distribution, we can round all but O(m) model weights such that the expected approximation error of the quantized model on the true data distribution is le ε as long as the space of gradients of the original model is approximately low rank (which we empirically validate). Our proof, which is algorithmic, inspired a simple and practical rounding algorithm called DiscQuant. In our experiments, we demonstrate that DiscQuant significantly improves over the prior state-of-the-art rounding method called GPTQ and the baseline RTN over a range of benchmarks on Phi3mini-3.8B and Llama3.1-8B. For example, rounding Phi3mini-3.8B to a fixed quantization grid with 3.25 bits per parameter using DiscQuant gets 64\% accuracy on the GSM8k dataset, whereas GPTQ achieves 54\% and RTN achieves 31\% (the original model achieves 84\%). We make our code available at https://github.com/jerry-chee/DiscQuant.

While confidence estimation is a promising direction for mitigating hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), current research dominantly focuses on single-turn settings. The dynamics of model confidence in multi-turn conversations, where context accumulates and ambiguity is progressively resolved, remain largely unexplored. Reliable confidence estimation in multi-turn settings is critical for many downstream applications, such as autonomous agents and human-in-the-loop systems. This work presents the first systematic study of confidence estimation in multi-turn interactions, establishing a formal evaluation framework grounded in two key desiderata: per-turn calibration and monotonicity of confidence as more information becomes available. To facilitate this, we introduce novel metrics, including a length-normalized Expected Calibration Error (InfoECE), and a new "Hinter-Guesser" paradigm for generating controlled evaluation datasets. Our experiments reveal that widely-used confidence techniques struggle with calibration and monotonicity in multi-turn dialogues. We propose P(Sufficient), a logit-based probe that achieves comparatively better performance, although the task remains far from solved. Our work provides a foundational methodology for developing more reliable and trustworthy conversational agents.

Fetal ultrasound standard-plane classification underpins reliable prenatal biometry and anomaly screening, yet real-world deployment is limited by domain shift, image noise, and poor calibration of predicted probabilities. This paper presents a practical framework for uncertainty-calibrated explainable AI in fetal plane classification. We synthesize uncertainty estimation methods (Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensembles, evidential learning, and conformal prediction) with post-hoc and uncertainty-aware explanations (Grad-CAM variants, LIME-style local surrogates, and uncertainty-weighted multi-resolution activation maps), and we map these components to a clinician-facing workflow. Using FETAL_PLANES_DB as a reference benchmark, we define a reporting protocol that couples accuracy with calibration and selective prediction, including expected calibration error, Brier score, coverage-risk curves, and structured error analysis with explanations. We also discuss integration points for quality control and human-in-the-loop review, where uncertainty flags trigger re-acquisition or expert confirmation. The goal is a reproducible, clinically aligned blueprint for building fetal ultrasound classifiers whose confidence and explanations remain trustworthy under noisy acquisition conditions.

Neural NLP models are often miscalibrated, assigning high confidence to incorrect predictions, which undermines selective prediction and high-stakes deployment. Post-hoc calibration methods adjust output probabilities but leave internal computation unchanged, while ensemble and Bayesian approaches improve uncertainty at substantial training or storage cost. We propose UAT-LITE, an inference-time framework that makes self-attention uncertainty-aware using approximate Bayesian inference via Monte Carlo dropout in pretrained transformer classifiers. Token-level epistemic uncertainty is estimated from stochastic forward passes and used to modulate self-attention during contextualization, without modifying pretrained weights or training objectives. We additionally introduce a layerwise variance decomposition to diagnose how predictive uncertainty accumulates across transformer depth. Across the SQuAD 2.0 answerability, MNLI, and SST-2, UAT-LITE reduces Expected Calibration Error by approximately 20% on average relative to a fine-tuned BERT-base baseline while preserving task accuracy, and improves selective prediction and robustness under distribution shift.

Modern Transformer-based models frequently suffer from miscalibration, producing overconfident predictions that do not reflect true empirical frequencies. This work investigates the calibration dynamics of LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation and a novel hyper-network-based adaptation framework as parameter-efficient alternatives to full fine-tuning for RoBERTa. Evaluating across the GLUE benchmark, we demonstrate that LoRA-based adaptation consistently achieves calibration parity with (and in specific tasks exceeds) full fine-tuning, while maintaining significantly higher parameter efficiency. We further explore a dynamic approach where a shared hyper-network generates LoRA factors (A and B matrices) to induce structural coupling across layers. This approach produced results similar to standard LoRA fine-tuning, even achieving better MCC on CoLA dataset. Our study also reveal a critical trade-off: constraining the adaptation space (e.g., freezing matrices A) acts as a powerful regularizer that enhances Expected Calibration Error (ECE), but necessitates a carefully balanced sacrifice in downstream task accuracy. To support future research, we provide a unified and reproducible implementation of contemporary calibration metrics, including ECE, MCE, and ACE. Our findings clarify the relationship between parameter efficiency and probabilistic reliability, positioning structured low-rank updates as a viable foundation for uncertainty-aware Transformer architectures. Code available at: https://github.com/btrojan-official/HypeLoRA

Large Language Models for code generation frequently produce hallucinations in Fill-in-the-Middle (FIM) tasks -- plausible but incorrect completions such as invented API methods, invalid parameters, undefined variables, or non-existent imports. These failures pass superficial review yet introduce runtime errors. We introduce Delulu, a verified multi-lingual benchmark of 1,951 FIM samples across 7 languages and 4 hallucination types. Samples are curated through an adversarial pipeline: a frontier LLM generates plausible hallucinations, four diverse judge models evaluate them, embedding-based clustering mines progressively harder examples, self-contained Docker containers verify that golden completions compile while hallucinated variants produce the expected runtime error, and a final human-expert review removes any remaining biased or trivially decidable samples. We evaluate 11 open-weight FIM models from five families spanning 0.5B-32B parameters: a six-point Qwen2.5-Coder scaling slate, plus a cross-family slate (CodeLlama, DeepSeek-Coder-V2, StarCoder2). The strongest model reaches only 84.5% pass@1, no family exceeds 0.77 Edit Similarity, and every family produces hallucination-aligned completions on a non-trivial share of samples, confirming that the difficulty exposed by Delulu is task-intrinsic rather than family-specific. We release the benchmark, containers, and evaluation framework at https://github.com/microsoft/delulu.

Modern end-to-end automatic speech recognition (ASR) models like Whisper not only suffer from reduced recognition accuracy in noise, but also exhibit overconfidence - assigning high confidence to wrong predictions. We conduct a systematic analysis of Whisper's behavior in additive noise conditions and find that overconfident errors increase dramatically at low signal-to-noise ratios, with 10-20% of tokens incorrectly predicted with confidence above 0.7. To mitigate this, we propose a lightweight, post-hoc calibration framework that detects potential overconfidence and applies temperature scaling selectively to those tokens, without altering the underlying ASR model. Evaluations on the R-SPIN dataset demonstrate that, in the low signal-to-noise ratio range (-18 to -5 dB), our method reduces the expected calibration error (ECE) by 58% and triples the normalized cross entropy (NCE), yielding more reliable confidence estimates under severe noise conditions.

Respiratory acoustic foundation models (FMs) are benchmarked exclusively on smartphone recordings, yet clinical deployment increasingly targets body-coupled (BC) wearables whose sensors attenuate high-frequency content through tissue and bone, leaving FM reliability uncharacterised. We introduce BCoughBench, evaluating five FMs (OPERA-CT/CE/GT, HeAR, M2D+Resp) on nine classification tasks (AUROC, sensitivity at 95% specificity, Expected Calibration Error) and three age regression tasks (MAE vs. a mean-predictor baseline) across five EBEN-simulated BC sensor conditions on five labeled cough datasets. Mean AUROC declines from 0.785 (smartphone) to 0.689-0.723, degrading most under temple vibration pickup (Δ = -0.096) and least under the soft in-ear (Δ = -0.062). No FM meets the clinical sensitivity threshold (Se@Sp95 geq 0.20) on most disease tasks under any BC sensor. Sex classification on the CIDRZ cohort collapses (AUROC 0.954 to 0.596-0.628, Δ = -0.341) while COVID detection is nearly unaffected (Δ = -0.004). Age regression is robust, improving under the forehead accelerometer on CoughVID (MAE 9.61 to 8.97 yr); HeAR leads on regression and demographic tasks, M2D+Resp on disease and characteristic tasks. BCoughBench provides a reproducible framework for FM evaluation under wearable conditions.

The global rise in type 2 diabetes underscores the need for scalable and cost-effective screening methods. Current diagnosis requires biochemical assays, which are invasive and costly. Advances in consumer wearables have enabled early explorations of machine learning-based disease detection, but prior studies were limited to controlled settings. We present SweetDeep, a compact neural network trained on physiological and demographic data from 285 (diabetic and non-diabetic) participants in the EU and MENA regions, collected using Samsung Galaxy Watch 7 devices in free-living conditions over six days. Each participant contributed multiple 2-minute sensor recordings per day, totaling approximately 20 recordings per individual. Despite comprising fewer than 3,000 parameters, SweetDeep achieves 82.5% patient-level accuracy (82.1% macro-F1, 79.7% sensitivity, 84.6% specificity) under three-fold cross-validation, with an expected calibration error of 5.5%. Allowing the model to abstain on less than 10% of low-confidence patient predictions yields an accuracy of 84.5% on the remaining patients. These findings demonstrate that combining engineered features with lightweight architectures can support accurate, rapid, and generalizable detection of type 2 diabetes in real-world wearable settings.

LLM cascades and model routing promise lower inference cost by sending easy queries to a small model and escalating hard ones to a large model, but most deployed routers use uncalibrated confidence scores and require per-workload threshold tuning. We present UCCI, a calibration-first router that maps token-level margin uncertainty to a per-query error probability via isotonic regression and selects the escalation threshold by constrained cost minimization. Under three explicit assumptions, threshold policies on the calibrated score are cost-optimal, and isotonic calibration achieves O(n^{-1/3}) sample complexity for expected calibration error (ECE). On a production named entity recognition workload of 75,000 queries served by 4B and 12B instruction-tuned LLMs on H100 GPUs, UCCI cuts inference cost by 31% (95% CI: [27%, 35%]) at micro-F1 = 0.91 while reducing ECE from 0.12 to 0.03. At the same operating point, UCCI beats entropy thresholding, split-conformal routing, and a FrugalGPT-style learned threshold. All cascade results use end-to-end routing on actual model outputs and measured H100 latency, not simulated routing from global accuracies or nominal API prices.

A decision model can give probabilities that sum to one for every question yet disagree with itself when the same decision is broken into smaller steps. We study this form of probabilistic coherence in Jev and the English Laya checkpoint, using 2,500 matched examples per system across TREC, CLINC150, and MASSIVE. Across 72,000 classification questions, we compare direct fine-label predictions with broad-category probabilities and predictions reconstructed through those categories. Both systems show substantial disagreement: mean category-level total variation ranges from 0.219 to 0.349 for Jev and from 0.424 to 0.689 for Laya, on a scale where zero means exact agreement. The consequences differ sharply. On CLINC150, reconstruction reduces Jev's accuracy by 22.9 percentage points (paired 95% bootstrap interval: [-24.9, -20.9]) and improves Laya's by 21.3 points ([18.0, 24.5]). The same directions hold across all three datasets, with all six unadjusted accuracy-change intervals excluding zero. Improved accuracy can also accompany less reliable confidence: on MASSIVE, Laya gains 9.2 accuracy points while its expected calibration error rises from 0.046 to 0.124. Error analysis identifies both broad-category mistakes and within-category confusions. These findings show why decision systems need joint evaluation of accuracy, confidence calibration, and probability coherence in the workflow used by an application.

Search agents repeatedly make short decisions about relevance, evidence sufficiency, and search actions. Using generative language models for these decisions introduces latency and unreliable confidence. We present SearchJev, a fast and calibrated System-1 model that separates search decisions from System-2 reasoning and generation. Given a search state and a decision schema, SearchJev directly scores legal options without autoregressive output generation. We propose Soft-Label Learning for Calibrated Decisions (SLCD) to learn decision probabilities from uncertain supervision and calibrate their confidence. In a dual-system search agent, SearchJev handles short decisions and delegates uncertain judgments to System 2, which retains planning, query generation, and answer composition. We also introduce SearchDecision-Bench, a benchmark unifying six types of search decisions for training and evaluation. On SearchDecision-Bench, SEARCHJEV improves decision quality over same-size Qwen3.5 autoregressive models, achieves 5.2-5.3 times faster decisions, and reduces average expected calibration error by 41-74%. On BrowseComp-Plus, the dual-system agents achieve a 3.7-4.7 times speedup in active search time while improving answer accuracy from 45% to up to 54%.

Ship-form design combines smooth geometric representation, local shape editing, and constraints on the resulting hull. We present the Natural-Language-to-Hull Framework (NL2Hull Framework), which formulates ship-form editing as a typed discrete decision problem and connects language decisions to numerical geometry. Its Constrained Free-Form Deformation Engine (CFFD Engine) represents hull waterlines with non-uniform rational B-splines (NURBS), applies free-form deformation (FFD) to their control points, reconstructs the hull, and checks geometric constraints. We construct the Ship Design Decision Dataset (SDD Dataset) with 134,558 cleaned records and evaluate compared models on its subset Ship Design Decision Benchmark (SDDBench), containing 5,000 records and 43,496 typed questions. We propose Chip, a constrained ship-design decision model for processing natural-language requests. Chip reaches 95.90\% question accuracy and 99.32\% FFD exact match, with a negative log-likelihood of 0.0951, an expected calibration error of 0.0032, and a Brier score of 0.0551. The NL2Hull Framework provides a reproducible interface for evaluating language-based ship-form decisions while identifying the geometry and continuous-control components that require further development. Our code and dataset is available at https://github.com/wenhuahuo/NL2Hull.

When a coordinator compares answers from heterogeneous foundation models, self-reported confidence may have different meanings across responders and changing workloads. This paper presents MARGIN (Multi-Agent Runtime Grading via Incremental Normalisation), a runtime calibration method that learns model-specific confidence corrections from observed answer outcomes without retraining the models or requiring a held-out calibration set. MARGIN tracks recent accuracy and stated confidence within confidence bands, uses their ratio to correct reported confidence, and blends sparse-band corrections toward a model-level estimate. The corrected scores weight candidate answers in a collective decision. Evaluation covers code generation, question answering, and mathematics, using an 18-model pool and a nine-model subset for distribution-shift experiments. On BigCodeBench, model-mean confidence is negatively related to accuracy; among correct/incorrect response pairs, choosing the more confident responder performs below chance. Against five online calibration baselines receiving identical feedback and retaining their learned state across each transition, MARGIN achieves lower post-shift expected calibration error than all five in two code-generation transitions and than four in a question-answering transition; the remaining question-answering comparison is inconclusive. In separate code-generation coordination experiments, calibration improves the ranking of correct responses and increases answer-selection accuracy by 4.3 and 14.0 percentage points on two of three benchmarks relative to uncalibrated confidence weighting. These results support model-specific runtime calibration for coordination under changing workloads when correctness feedback is available for the participating responders.

Multilingual large language models often struggle to reason in low- to mid-resource languages. Prior work has shown that translation can improve multilingual reasoning by helping models access stronger English-centric representations. This raises a central question: How much translation is needed for multilingual large language models to reason reliably, and when does more translation instead trigger interference and overconfidence? Using LLaMA and Qwen models, we run extensive experiments varying text scope and language mode (target-only, English-only, bilingual) to evaluate both accuracy and reliability. Our results reveal a clear trade-off: English context often improve understanding and recover errors caused by non-English comprehension, yet adding redundant bilingual context intensifies interference. We address this trade-off with Reliability-Aware Adaptive Inference (RAAI), a training-free test-time framework that (i) performs Expected Calibration Error (ECE)-aware routing and prompt fusion, and (ii) uses a mid-layer Risk Index (RI) to gate sequential reasoning, allocating compute only when it is likely to help and suppressing harmful bilingual redundancy. Across two model families, RAAI enhances accuracy by 25-37.7% on low-resource languages and lowers calibration error by approximately 3-6%, with the most pronounced benefits in the lowest-resource language tiers.

Controlling an acting LLM agent means deciding, at each step of a long-horizon task, whether to trust its next action, abstain, or hand off to a human. That decision needs a per-step confidence signal predicting whether the current rollout will eventually succeed. The agent's own self-reported verbalized confidence is the natural candidate, but existing reinforcement learning methods calibrate it against the correctness of a decision at the current step. We propose a method to calibrate it against the eventual outcome of a multi-step episode: under GRPO, the group of rollouts for a task supplies success labels, and a proper scoring rule scores each step's confidence against the realized outcome. In offline RL on recorded trajectories of a Qwen2.5-7B agent in ALFWorld, TextWorld, and WebShop environments, the AUROC of step confidence against episode outcome rises from near chance to 0.68-0.85, and the top-10% of steps the agent is most confident about succeed ~4.3x more often than average. In online RL on the live ALFWorld agent, four calibration rewards improve early-step AUROC, expected calibration error goes from 0.42 to below 0.12, and selective execution improves over both the untrained agent and a format-only RL control, without degrading task success. We also introduce an evaluation protocol that separates episode depth, task difficulty, and attempt-level foresight, which shows where the gain lies: the trained agent recognizes from its first step which tasks it will fail, while telling a succeeding attempt from a failing one at the same task is harder, with some early-window signal emerging on TextWorld.

Decision models return probabilities over supplied options, but a deployed agent may also need to reply in words. The present study introduces System X, a large language model (LLM) decision model that adds a text-reply option to the LLM-as-Jev readout. When this option wins, or confidence is low, the same model continues from the decision's key-value (KV) cache, avoiding a repeated prompt prefill. Qwen3-0.6B has been fine-tuned with LoRA on Reason-9k and Bitext reply rows. JevBench accuracy shows no statistically significant change (55.4% to 54.5%, p=0.87), while expected calibration error falls from 0.292 to 0.169. Held-out Bitext routing accuracy reaches 98.3%. Cache reuse saves 15-37% of latency on an Apple M4 Pro, with token-identical replies in the FP32 demonstration cases. Scoring options on copies of the prompt cache matches full-sequence scoring to within 1.4e-6 in probability. Adding dialogue, industry and complaint data (System X+) improves support-task results but lowers IFEval accuracy from 55.5% to 45.0%. System X v4 uses Qwen3-1.7B, rebalanced data and teacher-rewritten reply targets. Against its base LLM, JevBench accuracy rises from 55.0% to 61.0% (p=0.04), with no statistically significant IFEval change (p=0.71). A matched latency test on unadapted Qwen3-1.7B saves 17-39%. One LLM judge prefers v4 replies to an unadapted 1.7B second call (31 to 11 pairs, p=0.003); the other's preference is not significant. These reply comparisons also differ in prompts and generation limits. State conflicts and unsupported reply details remain failure modes. Further studies with several seeds, human raters and real support data are recommended.

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) with low-rank adaptaion (LoRA) is a cost-effective way to incorporate information from a specific dataset. However, it is often unclear how well the fine-tuned LLM will generalize, i.e., how well it will perform on unseen datasets. Methods have been proposed to improve generalization by optimizing with in-context prompts, or by using meta-learning to fine-tune LLMs. However, these methods are expensive in memory and computation, requiring either long-context prompts or saving copies of parameters and using second-order gradient updates. To address these challenges, we propose Amortized Bayesian Meta-Learning for LoRA (ABMLL). This method builds on amortized Bayesian meta-learning for smaller models, adapting this approach to LLMs while maintaining its computational efficiency. We reframe task-specific and global parameters in the context of LoRA and use a set of new hyperparameters to balance reconstruction accuracy and the fidelity of task-specific parameters to the global ones. ABMLL provides effective generalization and scales to large models such as Llama3-8B. Furthermore, as a result of using a Bayesian framework, ABMLL provides improved uncertainty quantification. We test ABMLL on Unified-QA and CrossFit datasets and find that it outperforms existing methods on these benchmarks in terms of both accuracy and expected calibration error.

Autonomous language-model agents increasingly rely on installable skills and tools to complete user tasks. Static skill auditing can expose capability surface before deployment, but it cannot determine whether a particular invocation is unsafe under the current user request and runtime context. We therefore study skill invocation auditing as a continuous-risk estimation problem: given a user request, candidate skill, and runtime context, predict a score that supports ranking and triage before a hard intervention is applied. We introduce STARS, which combines a static capability prior, a request-conditioned invocation risk model, and a calibrated risk-fusion policy. To evaluate this setting, we construct SIA-Bench, a benchmark of 3,000 invocation records with group-safe splits, lineage metadata, runtime context, canonical action labels, and derived continuous-risk targets. On a held-out split of indirect prompt injection attacks, calibrated fusion reaches 0.439 high-risk AUPRC, improving over 0.405 for the contextual scorer and 0.380 for the strongest static baseline, while the contextual scorer remains better calibrated with 0.289 expected calibration error. On the locked in-distribution test split, gains are smaller and static priors remain useful. The resulting claim is therefore narrower: request-conditioned auditing is most valuable as an invocation-time risk-scoring and triage layer rather than as a replacement for static screening. Code is available at https://github.com/123zgj123/STARS.

We consider the problem of finding an input to a stochastic black box function such that the scalar output of the black box function is as close as possible to a target value in the sense of the expected squared error. While the optimization of stochastic black boxes is classic in (robust) Bayesian optimization, the current approaches based on Gaussian processes predominantly focus either on i) maximization/minimization rather than target value optimization or ii) on the expectation, but not the variance of the output, ignoring output variations due to stochasticity in uncontrollable environmental variables. In this work, we fill this gap and derive acquisition functions for common criteria such as the expected improvement, the probability of improvement, and the lower confidence bound, assuming that aleatoric effects are Gaussian with known variance. Our experiments illustrate that this setting is compatible with certain extensions of Gaussian processes, and show that the thus derived acquisition functions can outperform classical Bayesian optimization even if the latter assumptions are violated. An industrial use case in billet forging is presented.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

Quantum error mitigation (QEM) is critical in reducing the impact of noise in the pre-fault-tolerant era, and is expected to complement error correction in fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC). In this paper, we propose a novel QEM approach, Q-Cluster, that uses unsupervised learning (clustering) to reshape the measured bit-string distribution. Our approach starts with a simplified bit-flip noise model. It first performs clustering on noisy measurement results, i.e., bit-strings, based on the Hamming distance. The centroid of each cluster is calculated using a qubit-wise majority vote. Next, the noisy distribution is adjusted with the clustering outcomes and the bit-flip error rates using Bayesian inference. Our simulation results show that Q-Cluster can mitigate high noise rates (up to 40% per qubit) with the simple bit-flip noise model. However, real quantum computers do not fit such a simple noise model. To address the problem, we (a) apply Pauli twirling to tailor the complex noise channels to Pauli errors, and (b) employ a machine learning model, ExtraTrees regressor, to estimate an effective bit-flip error rate using a feature vector consisting of machine calibration data (gate & measurement error rates), circuit features (number of qubits, numbers of different types of gates, etc.) and the shape of the noisy distribution (entropy). Our experimental results show that our proposed Q-Cluster scheme improves the fidelity by a factor of 1.46x, on average, compared to the unmitigated output distribution, for a set of low-entropy benchmarks on five different IBM quantum machines. Our approach outperforms the state-of-art QEM approaches M3 [24], Hammer [35], and QBEEP [33] by 1.29x, 1.47x, and 2.65x, respectively.

We study low-precision computation of C=AB with both factors quantized. We derive an exact finite-dimensional identity for the expected squared product error under independent, zero-mean entrywise errors with known variance fields; it holds exactly for non-overloading subtractive dither and for independent stochastic rounding, and we empirically assess deterministic round-to-nearest (RTN). Using the product-preserving equivalence AB=(AT)(T^{-1}B), we formulate contraction-gauge preconditioning: jointly choosing a factor representation and its sharing pattern before quantization. Preconditioning can reduce product error but may require extra transformed, quantized copies of the opposite operand: a shared transform needs one copy, a block-specific transform up to one per block. Within the bounded family of positive diagonal gauges (folds), a geometric program computes a globally optimal shared fold and a linear program decides whether the identity fold is already optimal. For other families we derive computable selection statistics -- tail index for scaling, profile spread for partitioning, coherence and weighted-Gram energy for rotations, slice-energy covariance for hierarchy depth -- with upper bounds for ranking heuristic candidates. Across twelve linear products from a trained three-block image classifier, median within-product rank correlations between dither-model predictions and deterministic-RTN errors are 0.937 at 8 bits and 0.918 at 4 bits. The GP fold cuts held-out product error over the identity fold by 18.0% (8-bit) and 20.5% (4-bit) in geometric mean, beats a SmoothQuant-style grid baseline at both precisions and on ten of twelve products, and lowers composed logit MSE by 15.4% and 26.4%. We thus provide exact stochastic product-error accounting, certified selection within the diagonal family, and a common objective for evaluating reusable transform candidates under RTN.

Recent works on compression of large language models (LLM) using quantization considered reparameterizing the architecture such that weights are distributed on the sphere. This demonstratively improves the ability to quantize by increasing the mathematical notion of coherence, resulting in fewer weight outliers without affecting the network output. In this work, we aim to further exploit this spherical geometry of the weights when performing quantization by considering Pyramid Vector Quantization (PVQ) for large language models. Arranging points evenly on the sphere is notoriously difficult, especially in high dimensions, and in case approximate solutions exists, representing points explicitly in a codebook is typically not feasible due to its additional memory cost. Instead, PVQ uses a fixed integer lattice on the sphere by projecting points onto the 1-sphere, which allows for efficient encoding and decoding without requiring an explicit codebook in memory. To obtain a practical algorithm, we propose to combine PVQ with scale quantization for which we derive theoretically optimal quantizations, under empirically verified assumptions. Further, we extend pyramid vector quantization to use Hessian information to minimize quantization error under expected feature activations, instead of only relying on weight magnitudes. Experimentally, we achieves state-of-the-art quantization performance with pareto-optimal trade-off between performance and bits per weight and bits per activation, compared to compared methods. On weight-only, we find that we can quantize a Llama-3 70B model to 3.25 bits per weight and retain 98\% accuracy on downstream tasks.

Low-Rank Adaptive Residual Connections (LARC) give a frozen model a compact numerical state that can learn from feedback. The map h+BAh adds a low-rank correction to a hidden representation. A slow state ρ learns starting factors across tasks; a private fast state Φ copies them, changes with feedback, and resets to the trained initialization. This report specifies an input-side realization of the numerical policy carrier in Memory-Mediated Learning Architecture and examines its factor-space dynamics and learning lifetime. We study a rank-4 input residual with 12,288 trainable parameters on a frozen MiniCPM5-1B-SFT substrate. In a four-candidate program-selection task, two feedback-gradient steps reduce expected query execution error by 24.65 and 36.65 percentage points relative to resetting to the respective trained static and post-adaptation initializations. These development results cover 16 parameter groups and three paired training seeds. A direct support-loss selection rule is much more accurate, reaching 0.78125% error. In a repository-balanced chronological replay of public continuous-integration jobs, retaining online updates raises half-Brier loss from 0.1274 to 0.1808. A fixed follow-up intervention records same-batch non-descent and inconsistent future benefit from shrinking updates. Together, the algebra and measurements distinguish residual capacity, adaptation relative to a starting point, and usefulness on later decisions.

Existing deep active learning algorithms achieve impressive sampling efficiency on natural language processing tasks. However, they exhibit several weaknesses in practice, including (a) inability to use uncertainty sampling with black-box models, (b) lack of robustness to labeling noise, and (c) lack of transparency. In response, we propose a transparent batch active sampling framework by estimating the error decay curves of multiple feature-defined subsets of the data. Experiments on four named entity recognition (NER) tasks demonstrate that the proposed methods significantly outperform diversification-based methods for black-box NER taggers, and can make the sampling process more robust to labeling noise when combined with uncertainty-based methods. Furthermore, the analysis of experimental results sheds light on the weaknesses of different active sampling strategies, and when traditional uncertainty-based or diversification-based methods can be expected to work well.

The realization of scalable fault-tolerant quantum computing is expected to hinge on quantum error-correcting codes. In the quest for more efficient quantum fault tolerance, a critical code parameter is the weight of measurements that extract information about errors to enable error correction: as higher measurement weights require higher implementation costs and introduce more errors, it is important in code design to optimize measurement weight. This underlies the surging interest in quantum low-density parity-check (qLDPC) codes, the study of which has primarily focused on the asymptotic (large-code-limit) properties. In this work, we introduce a versatile and computationally efficient approach to stabilizer code weight reduction based on reinforcement learning (RL), which produces new low-weight codes that substantially outperform the state of the art in practically relevant parameter regimes, extending significantly beyond previously accessible small distances. For example, our approach demonstrates savings in physical qubit overhead compared to existing results by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude for weight 6 codes and brings the overhead into a feasible range for near-future experiments. We also investigate the interplay between code parameters using our RL framework, offering new insights into the potential efficiency and power of practically viable coding strategies. Overall, our results demonstrate how RL can effectively advance the crucial yet challenging problem of quantum code discovery and thereby facilitate a faster path to the practical implementation of fault-tolerant quantum technologies.

Although post-training quantization (PTQ) provides an efficient numerical compression scheme for deploying large language models (LLMs) on resource-constrained devices, the representativeness and universality of calibration data remain a core bottleneck in determining the accuracy of quantization parameters. Traditional PTQ methods typically rely on limited samples, making it difficult to capture the activation distribution during the inference phase, leading to biases in quantization parameters. To address this, we propose FAQ (Family-Aware Quantization), a calibration data regeneration framework that leverages prior knowledge from LLMs of the same family to generate high-fidelity calibration samples. Specifically, FAQ first inputs the original calibration samples into a larger LLM from the same family as the target model, regenerating a series of high-fidelity calibration data using a highly consistent knowledge system. Subsequently, this data, carrying Chain-of-Thought reasoning and conforming to the expected activation distribution, undergoes group competition under expert guidance to select the best samples, which are then re-normalized to enhance the effectiveness of standard PTQ. Experiments on multiple model series, including Qwen3-8B, show that FAQ reduces accuracy loss by up to 28.5\% compared to the baseline with original calibration data, demonstrating its powerful potential and contribution.

Benchmarks of the multilingual capabilities of text-to-image (T2I) models compare generated images prompted in a test language to an expected image distribution over a concept set. One such benchmark, "Conceptual Coverage Across Languages" (CoCo-CroLa), assesses the tangible noun inventory of T2I models by prompting them to generate pictures from a concept list translated to seven languages and comparing the output image populations. Unfortunately, we find that this benchmark contains translation errors of varying severity in Spanish, Japanese, and Chinese. We provide corrections for these errors and analyze how impactful they are on the utility and validity of CoCo-CroLa as a benchmark. We reassess multiple baseline T2I models with the revisions, compare the outputs elicited under the new translations to those conditioned on the old, and show that a correction's impactfulness on the image-domain benchmark results can be predicted in the text domain with similarity scores. Our findings will guide the future development of T2I multilinguality metrics by providing analytical tools for practical translation decisions.

Implementing quantum game theory on real hardware is challenging due to noise, decoherence, and limited qubit connectivity, yet such demonstrations are essential to validate theoretical predictions. We present one of the first full experimental realizations of the Battle of the Sexes game under the Eisert-Wilkens-Lewenstein (EWL) framework on IBM Quantum's ibm sherbrooke superconducting processor. Four quantum strategies (I, H, R(pi/4), R(pi)) were evaluated across 31 entanglement values gamma in [0, pi] using 2048 shots per configuration, enabling a direct comparison between analytical predictions and hardware execution. To mitigate noise and variability, we introduce a Guided Circuit Mapping (GCM) method that dynamically selects qubit pairs and optimizes routing based on real-time topology and calibration data. The analytical model forecasts up to 108% payoff improvement over the classical equilibrium, and despite hardware-induced deviations, experimental results with GCM preserve the expected payoff trends within 3.5%-12% relative error. These findings show that quantum advantages in strategic coordination can persist under realistic NISQ conditions, providing a pathway toward practical applications of quantum game theory in multi-agent, economic, and distributed decision-making systems.

Surface normal estimation from a single image is an important task in 3D scene understanding. In this paper, we address two limitations shared by the existing methods: the inability to estimate the aleatoric uncertainty and lack of detail in the prediction. The proposed network estimates the per-pixel surface normal probability distribution. We introduce a new parameterization for the distribution, such that its negative log-likelihood is the angular loss with learned attenuation. The expected value of the angular error is then used as a measure of the aleatoric uncertainty. We also present a novel decoder framework where pixel-wise multi-layer perceptrons are trained on a subset of pixels sampled based on the estimated uncertainty. The proposed uncertainty-guided sampling prevents the bias in training towards large planar surfaces and improves the quality of prediction, especially near object boundaries and on small structures. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art in ScanNet and NYUv2, and that the estimated uncertainty correlates well with the prediction error. Code is available at https://github.com/baegwangbin/surface_normal_uncertainty.

Evaluating the performance of perception modules in autonomous driving is one of the most critical tasks in developing the complex intelligent system. While module-level unit test metrics adopted from traditional computer vision tasks are feasible to some extent, it remains far less explored to measure the impact of perceptual noise on the driving quality of autonomous vehicles in a consistent and holistic manner. In this work, we propose a principled framework that provides a coherent and systematic understanding of the impact an error in the perception module imposes on an autonomous agent's planning that actually controls the vehicle. Specifically, the planning process is formulated as expected utility maximisation, where all input signals from upstream modules jointly provide a world state description, and the planner strives for the optimal action by maximising the expected utility determined by both world states and actions. We show that, under practical conditions, the objective function can be represented as an inner product between the world state description and the utility function in a Hilbert space. This geometric interpretation enables a novel way to analyse the impact of noise in world state estimation on planning and leads to a universal metric for evaluating perception. The whole framework resembles the idea of transcendental idealism in the classical philosophical literature, which gives the name to our approach.

Temporal question answering is an established method for evaluating temporal reasoning in large language models. Expected answers are often numeric (e.g., dates or durations), yet model responses are evaluated like regular text with exact match (EM), unable to distinguish small from large errors. In this investigative work, we frame temporal question answering as a numerical estimation task to assess the shortcomings of EM. We introduce TempAnswerQA, a benchmark distilled from Test of Time and TempTabQA, where all questions require a numerical, temporal answer, allowing us to evaluate models beyond EM. We use the forecasting metrics symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). With sMAPE, we find that error size and EM are decoupled. Models with low EM still have low sMAPE (both ~20%), and some models have high sMAPE despite high EM. Scaling errors by the deviation of the ground truth data with MASE reshuffles model rankings compared to EM, revealing gaps in models' understanding of temporal domain knowledge, especially when trained with synthetic data. Lastly, the models' most frequent error is to deviate by only pm1 from the ground truth. sMAPE and MASE, unlike EM, adequately weight these errors. Our findings underscore the need for specialised metrics for temporal QA tasks. Code and data are available on https://github.com/aauss/temporal-answer-qa.

Recent work has shown that asking language models to generate reasoning steps improves performance on many reasoning tasks. When moving beyond prompting, this raises the question of how we should supervise such models: outcome-based approaches which supervise the final result, or process-based approaches which supervise the reasoning process itself? Differences between these approaches might naturally be expected not just in final-answer errors but also in reasoning errors, which can be difficult to detect and are problematic in many real-world domains such as education. We run the first comprehensive comparison between process- and outcome-based approaches trained on a natural language task, GSM8K. We find that pure outcome-based supervision produces similar final-answer error rates with less label supervision. However, for correct reasoning steps we find it necessary to use process-based supervision or supervision from learned reward models that emulate process-based feedback. In total, we improve the previous best results from 16.8% to 12.7% final-answer error and 14.0% to 3.4% reasoning error among final-answer-correct solutions.

What is happiness for reinforcement learning agents? We seek a formal definition satisfying a list of desiderata. Our proposed definition of happiness is the temporal difference error, i.e. the difference between the value of the obtained reward and observation and the agent's expectation of this value. This definition satisfies most of our desiderata and is compatible with empirical research on humans. We state several implications and discuss examples.

Designing effective game tutorials is crucial for a smooth learning curve for new players, especially in games with many rules and complex core mechanics. Evaluating the effectiveness of these tutorials usually requires multiple iterations with testers who have no prior knowledge of the game. Recent Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated significant capabilities in understanding and interpreting visual content. VLMs can analyze images, provide detailed insights, and answer questions about their content. They can recognize objects, actions, and contexts in visual data, making them valuable tools for various applications, including automated game testing. In this work, we propose an automated game-testing solution to evaluate the quality of game tutorials. Our approach leverages VLMs to analyze frames from video game tutorials, answer relevant questions to simulate human perception, and provide feedback. This feedback is compared with expected results to identify confusing or problematic scenes and highlight potential errors for developers. In addition, we publish complete tutorial videos and annotated frames from different game versions used in our tests. This solution reduces the need for extensive manual testing, especially by speeding up and simplifying the initial development stages of the tutorial to improve the final game experience.

Vision-language models are increasingly integrated into clinical workflows. However, existing benchmarks primarily assess performance on common anatomical presentations and fail to capture the challenges posed by rare variants. To address this gap, we introduce AdversarialAnatomyBench, the first benchmark comprising naturally occurring rare anatomical variants across diverse imaging modalities and anatomical regions. We call such variants that violate learned priors about "typical" human anatomy natural adversarial anatomy. Benchmarking 22 state-of-the-art VLMs with AdversarialAnatomyBench yielded three key insights. First, when queried with basic medical perception tasks, mean accuracy dropped from 74% on typical to 29% on atypical anatomy. Even the best-performing models, GPT-5, Gemini 2.5 Pro, and Llama 4 Maverick, showed performance drops of 41-51%. Second, model errors closely mirrored expected anatomical biases. Third, neither model scaling nor interventions, including bias-aware prompting and test-time reasoning, resolved these issues. These findings highlight a critical and previously unquantified limitation in current VLM: their poor generalization to rare anatomical presentations. AdversarialAnatomyBench provides a foundation for systematically measuring and mitigating anatomical bias in multimodal medical AI systems.

We discuss an unfortunate mistake, for a Dirac free particle, in the last Fermi lecture notes on quantum mechanics, in a course given at the University of Chicago in winter and spring of 1954. As is demonstrated, the correct result can be obtained by a simple matrix multiplication. An attempt to collect a relevant bibliography is made.

Before acting upon an unobservable physical system, an autonomous agent must determine which latent distinctions govern downstream tasks, how many active interventions are necessary to certify them, and when to abstain to prevent catastrophic errors. Classical observability treats state reconstruction as an unconditioned binary predicate, failing when passive observations cannot break latent degeneracies without perturbation, full microscopic inversion is prohibitively costly, and distinguishing task-irrelevant degrees of freedom wastes interaction budgets. We formalize task-conditioned active observability complexity: the minimum worst-case expected interaction cost required to identify task-relevant states under certified error and safe abstention guarantees. We prove that task-predictive equivalence induces the unique minimal sufficient quotient H/!sim_τ, leaving active observability complexity strictly invariant while eliminating superfluous distinctions. In deterministic regimes, this complexity is characterized by an optimal adaptive distinguishing tree and Bellman recursion; in noisy regimes, it obeys a stopped-transcript relative-entropy lower bound and adaptive martingale certificates that compose without independence assumptions. We instantiate a prospective certified observer with staged recovery: a nominal verifier defers candidate compilation, triggering active probing only upon evidence, while a history-measurable score shell prunes hypotheses without sacrificing risk bounds. Stress audits across high-dimensional physical systems and thousands of operational trials demonstrate certified state recovery with zero false acceptances and substantial reductions in sensor reads and model steps.

Neural network pruning and quantization techniques are almost as old as neural networks themselves. However, to date only ad-hoc comparisons between the two have been published. In this paper, we set out to answer the question on which is better: neural network quantization or pruning? By answering this question, we hope to inform design decisions made on neural network hardware going forward. We provide an extensive comparison between the two techniques for compressing deep neural networks. First, we give an analytical comparison of expected quantization and pruning error for general data distributions. Then, we provide lower bounds for the per-layer pruning and quantization error in trained networks, and compare these to empirical error after optimization. Finally, we provide an extensive experimental comparison for training 8 large-scale models on 3 tasks. Our results show that in most cases quantization outperforms pruning. Only in some scenarios with very high compression ratio, pruning might be beneficial from an accuracy standpoint.

Continual learning (CL) has garnered significant attention because of its ability to adapt to new tasks that arrive over time. Catastrophic forgetting (of old tasks) has been identified as a major issue in CL, as the model adapts to new tasks. The Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) model has recently been shown to effectively mitigate catastrophic forgetting in CL, by employing a gating network to sparsify and distribute diverse tasks among multiple experts. However, there is a lack of theoretical analysis of MoE and its impact on the learning performance in CL. This paper provides the first theoretical results to characterize the impact of MoE in CL via the lens of overparameterized linear regression tasks. We establish the benefit of MoE over a single expert by proving that the MoE model can diversify its experts to specialize in different tasks, while its router learns to select the right expert for each task and balance the loads across all experts. Our study further suggests an intriguing fact that the MoE in CL needs to terminate the update of the gating network after sufficient training rounds to attain system convergence, which is not needed in the existing MoE studies that do not consider the continual task arrival. Furthermore, we provide explicit expressions for the expected forgetting and overall generalization error to characterize the benefit of MoE in the learning performance in CL. Interestingly, adding more experts requires additional rounds before convergence, which may not enhance the learning performance. Finally, we conduct experiments on both synthetic and real datasets to extend these insights from linear models to deep neural networks (DNNs), which also shed light on the practical algorithm design for MoE in CL.

Deep autoencoder has been extensively used for anomaly detection. Training on the normal data, the autoencoder is expected to produce higher reconstruction error for the abnormal inputs than the normal ones, which is adopted as a criterion for identifying anomalies. However, this assumption does not always hold in practice. It has been observed that sometimes the autoencoder "generalizes" so well that it can also reconstruct anomalies well, leading to the miss detection of anomalies. To mitigate this drawback for autoencoder based anomaly detector, we propose to augment the autoencoder with a memory module and develop an improved autoencoder called memory-augmented autoencoder, i.e. MemAE. Given an input, MemAE firstly obtains the encoding from the encoder and then uses it as a query to retrieve the most relevant memory items for reconstruction. At the training stage, the memory contents are updated and are encouraged to represent the prototypical elements of the normal data. At the test stage, the learned memory will be fixed, and the reconstruction is obtained from a few selected memory records of the normal data. The reconstruction will thus tend to be close to a normal sample. Thus the reconstructed errors on anomalies will be strengthened for anomaly detection. MemAE is free of assumptions on the data type and thus general to be applied to different tasks. Experiments on various datasets prove the excellent generalization and high effectiveness of the proposed MemAE.

Unsupervised anomaly detection (UAD) has been widely implemented in industrial and medical applications, which reduces the cost of manual annotation and improves efficiency in disease diagnosis. Recently, deep auto-encoder with its variants has demonstrated its advantages in many UAD scenarios. Training on the normal data, these models are expected to locate anomalies by producing higher reconstruction error for the abnormal areas than the normal ones. However, this assumption does not always hold because of the uncontrollable generalization capability. To solve this problem, we present LSGS, a method that builds on Vector Quantised-Variational Autoencoder (VQVAE) with a novel aggregated codebook and transformers with global attention. In this work, the VQVAE focus on feature extraction and reconstruction of images, and the transformers fit the manifold and locate anomalies in the latent space. Then, leveraging the generated encoding sequences that conform to a normal distribution, we can reconstruct a more accurate image for locating the anomalies. Experiments on various datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) enable autonomous GUI navigation, but agents still struggle to process and learn from dense, continuous visual histories. This bottleneck hinders both immediate error correction within a single episode (intra-trial) and experience distillation across multiple attempts (cross-trial). We trace these challenges to an empirical informational asymmetry in GUI navigation: while expected transitions can often be compressed into lightweight textual summaries, unexpected outcomes benefit from preserved screenshots as causal evidence for accurate diagnosis. Building on this insight, we propose AnchorGUI, a unified framework driven by the Cognitive State Anchor (CSA). The CSA acts as a per-step primitive that actively compares expected and observed transitions, converting passive multimodal trajectories into explicit prediction-error signals. These signals orchestrate a dual-scale learning mechanism via an asymmetric memory. For intra-trial correction, a sliding window selectively retains visual evidence for detected mismatches, providing immediate, visually-grounded feedback. For cross-trial distillation, this asymmetric memory focuses the computationally expensive credit assignment search space on likely failure steps. Experiments across four benchmarks validate the effectiveness of our approach. On AndroidWorld, AnchorGUI achieves a 57.3% success rate with a 2.4times token reduction per step. Furthermore, cross-trial distillation reaches 69.2% success (+11.9% gain), significantly outperforming standard reflection methods while maintaining sub-linear context scaling.

The recent wave of generative AI has sparked unprecedented global attention, with both excitement and concern over potentially superhuman levels of artificial intelligence: models now take only seconds to produce outputs that would challenge or exceed the capabilities even of expert humans. At the same time, models still show basic errors in understanding that would not be expected even in non-expert humans. This presents us with an apparent paradox: how do we reconcile seemingly superhuman capabilities with the persistence of errors that few humans would make? In this work, we posit that this tension reflects a divergence in the configuration of intelligence in today's generative models relative to intelligence in humans. Specifically, we propose and test the Generative AI Paradox hypothesis: generative models, having been trained directly to reproduce expert-like outputs, acquire generative capabilities that are not contingent upon -- and can therefore exceed -- their ability to understand those same types of outputs. This contrasts with humans, for whom basic understanding almost always precedes the ability to generate expert-level outputs. We test this hypothesis through controlled experiments analyzing generation vs. understanding in generative models, across both language and image modalities. Our results show that although models can outperform humans in generation, they consistently fall short of human capabilities in measures of understanding, as well as weaker correlation between generation and understanding performance, and more brittleness to adversarial inputs. Our findings support the hypothesis that models' generative capability may not be contingent upon understanding capability, and call for caution in interpreting artificial intelligence by analogy to human intelligence.

Medical multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are increasingly expected to perform complex image understanding tasks, yet their reliability is often compromised by frequent errors in visual interpretation. To systematically trace these failures, we traverse the hierarchy from high-level clinical tasks down to fundamental visual perception. We therefore introduce Perception-Bench, a large-scale benchmark comprising 1.13 million samples that assesses medical MLLMs across six dimensions: attribute judgment, spatial grounding, spatial understanding, disease prediction, anomaly detection, and report generation, spanning both 2D and 3D radiology images. Our analysis on Perception-Bench reveals that existing MLLMs lack the ability to capture even the most basic lesion attributes, such as location, size, and density. This inability to ground clinical outputs in primary visual evidence reveals that the models' diagnostic unreliability is rooted in a critical but overlooked bottleneck in low-level visual perception. Motivated by this, we propose RadSight, a perception-driven MLLM built upon a dual 2D/3D encoder architecture that preserves native imaging spatial structures. RadSight formulates medical image understanding as a four-stage progressive process: visual-language alignment, fine-grained visual perception, clinical diagnosis, and diagnostic interpretation. The model is trained on an 8.37 million perception-oriented corpus using progressive curriculum learning. On Perception-Bench, RadSight consistently outperforms existing MLLMs across all six evaluation dimensions, with particularly strong gains in spatial grounding and clinical diagnosis. It also achieves consistent improvements on public 2D and 3D medical benchmarks, further demonstrating that robust low-level visual perception is a critical foundation for reliable clinical understanding. Code and model will be publicly available.

Many organizations rely on data from government and third-party sources, and those sources rarely follow the same data formatting. This introduces challenges in integrating data from multiple sources or aligning external sources with internal databases. Commercial database systems do not offer adequate support for integrating data from heterogeneous sources, and manual integration is both time-consuming and inefficient. State-of-the-art data integration approaches that rely on similarity functions and textual transformations often fail to handle challenging cases where multiple mappings are required, or the mappings go beyond simple textual transformations. In this paper, we study the potentials of deep neural models for transforming tables for joinability. In particular, we cast the problem as a prediction task and develop a framework that leverages large deep-learning language models to transform tabular data from a source formatting to a desired target representation. Our framework can efficiently learn the patterns for mapping a source formatting into an expected target using just a few examples, which can then be used for tasks such as table joining, filling in missing values, and error detection. Compared to state-of-the-art mapping and joining approaches, our framework delivers noticeably more accurate and scalable performance on both real-world and synthetic datasets. Our experimental evaluation also shows that the performance of the proposed framework using our fine-tuned model is at par or better than large language models such as GPT-3, despite the significant difference in size, and that using large language models within our framework improves their performance.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) with rubric-based rewards has recently shown remarkable progress in enhancing general reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), yet still suffers from ineffective exploration confined to curent policy distribution. In fact, RL optimization can be viewed as steering the policy toward an ideal distribution that maximizes the rewards, while effective exploration should align efforts with desired target. Leveraging this insight, we propose HeRL, a Hindsight experience guided Reinforcement Learning framework to bootstrap effective exploration by explicitly telling LLMs the desired behaviors specified in rewards. Concretely, HeRL treats failed trajectories along with their unmet rubrics as hindsight experience, which serves as in-context guidance for the policy to explore desired responses beyond its current distribution. Additionally, we introduce a bonus reward to incentivize responses with greater potential for improvement under such guidance. HeRL facilitates effective learning from desired high quality samples without repeated trial-and-error from scratch, yielding a more accurate estimation of the expected gradient theoretically. Extensive experiments across various benchmarks demonstrate that HeRL achieves superior performance gains over baselines, and can further benefit from experience guided self-improvement at test time. Our code is available at https://github.com/sikelifei/HeRL.

Despite significant strides in factual reliability, errors -- often termed hallucinations -- remain a major concern for generative AI, especially as LLMs are increasingly expected to be helpful in more complex or nuanced setups. Yet even in the simplest setting -- factoid question-answering with clear ground truth-frontier models without external tools continue to hallucinate. We argue that most factuality gains in this domain have come from expanding the model's knowledge boundary (encoding more facts) rather than improving awareness of that boundary (distinguishing known from unknown). We conjecture that the latter is inherently difficult: models may lack the discriminative power to perfectly separate truths from errors, creating an unavoidable tradeoff between eliminating hallucinations and preserving utility. This tradeoff dissolves under a different framing. If we understand hallucinations as confident errors -- incorrect information delivered without appropriate qualification -- a third path emerges beyond the answer-or-abstain dichotomy: expressing uncertainty. We propose faithful uncertainty: aligning linguistic uncertainty with intrinsic uncertainty. This is one facet of metacognition -- the ability to be aware of one's own uncertainty and to act on it. For direct interaction, acting on uncertainty means communicating it honestly; for agentic systems, it becomes the control layer governing when to search and what to trust. Metacognition is thus essential for LLMs to be both trustworthy and capable; we conclude by highlighting open problems for progress towards this objective.

Annotation noise is widespread in datasets, but manually revising a flawed corpus is time-consuming and error-prone. Hence, given the prior knowledge in Pre-trained Language Models and the expected uniformity across all annotations, we attempt to reduce annotation noise in the corpus through two tasks automatically: (1) Annotation Inconsistency Detection that indicates the credibility of annotations, and (2) Annotation Error Correction that rectifies the abnormal annotations. We investigate how to acquire semantic sensitive annotation representations from Pre-trained Language Models, expecting to embed the examples with identical annotations to the mutually adjacent positions even without fine-tuning. We proposed a novel credibility score to reveal the likelihood of annotation inconsistencies based on the neighbouring consistency. Then, we fine-tune the Pre-trained Language Models based classifier with cross-validation for annotation correction. The annotation corrector is further elaborated with two approaches: (1) soft labelling by Kernel Density Estimation and (2) a novel distant-peer contrastive loss. We study the re-annotation in relation extraction and create a new manually revised dataset, Re-DocRED, for evaluating document-level re-annotation. The proposed credibility scores show promising agreement with human revisions, achieving a Binary F1 of 93.4 and 72.5 in detecting inconsistencies on TACRED and DocRED respectively. Moreover, the neighbour-aware classifiers based on distant-peer contrastive learning and uncertain labels achieve Macro F1 up to 66.2 and 57.8 in correcting annotations on TACRED and DocRED respectively. These improvements are not merely theoretical: Rather, automatically denoised training sets demonstrate up to 3.6% performance improvement for state-of-the-art relation extraction models.

In this article, we present a structured Kalman filter associated with the transformation matrix for observable Kalman canonical decomposition from conventional Kalman filter (CKF) in order to generate a more accurate time scale. The conventional Kalman filter is a special case of the proposed structured Kalman filter which yields the same predicted unobservable or observable states when some conditions are satisfied. We consider an optimization problem respective to the transformation matrix where the objective function is associated with not only the expected value of prediction error but also its variance. We reveal that such an objective function is a convex function and show some conditions under which CKF is nothing but the optimal algorithm if ideal computation is possible without computation error. A numerical example is presented to show the robustness of the proposed method in terms of the initial error covariance

Policy mirror descent (PMD) provides a principled framework for reinforcement learning (RL) by iteratively solving KL-regularized policy improvement subproblems. While this approach has been adopted in training advanced LLMs such as Kimi K1.5/K2, the ideal closed-form PMD updates require reliable partition function estimation, a significant challenge when working with limited rollouts in the vast action spaces of LLMs. We investigate a practical algorithm, termed PMD-mean, that approximates the log-partition term with the mean reward under the sampling policy and performs regression in log-policy space. Specifically, we characterize the population solution of PMD-mean and demonstrate that it implicitly optimizes mirror descent subproblems with an adaptive mixed KL--χ^2 regularizer. This additional χ^2 regularization constrains large probability changes, producing more conservative updates when expected rewards are low and enhancing robustness against finite-sample estimation errors. Experiments on math reasoning tasks show that PMD-mean achieves superior performance with improved stability and time efficiency. These findings deepen our understanding of PMD-mean and illuminate pathways toward principled improvements in RL algorithms for LLMs. Code is available at https://github.com/horizon-rl/OpenKimi.

India's Eighth Schedule recognises 22 languages, yet parallel data is uneven across them, and many language pairs, especially among lower-resource languages such as Bodo, Dogri, Santali and Kashmiri, lack direct bitext. We present BharatSetu 22-Indic 1M, a row-aligned table of 984,764 English sentences, each paired with machine translations into all 22 scheduled languages (21,664,808 Indic cells), generated with the sarvamai/sarvam-translate model family. Because every Indic cell in a row translates the same English sentence, any two columns form a translation pair: 462 directed Indic-to-Indic pairs, or 506 including English, without direct bitext. We call these pivot-derived pairs and propose a confidence layer that lets users choose how strictly each pair is connected. The corpus is machine-generated and not human-verified; quality is expected to vary by language, domain and sentence style, and pivot-derived pairs can inherit errors from both sides. We therefore release BharatSetu as a machine layer and propose a human-correction layer keyed to the same row identifiers, so that each corrected column upgrades every pair that uses it, together with an evaluation protocol. We report no translation-quality results.

We present EMDB, the Electromagnetic Database of Global 3D Human Pose and Shape in the Wild. EMDB is a novel dataset that contains high-quality 3D SMPL pose and shape parameters with global body and camera trajectories for in-the-wild videos. We use body-worn, wireless electromagnetic (EM) sensors and a hand-held iPhone to record a total of 58 minutes of motion data, distributed over 81 indoor and outdoor sequences and 10 participants. Together with accurate body poses and shapes, we also provide global camera poses and body root trajectories. To construct EMDB, we propose a multi-stage optimization procedure, which first fits SMPL to the 6-DoF EM measurements and then refines the poses via image observations. To achieve high-quality results, we leverage a neural implicit avatar model to reconstruct detailed human surface geometry and appearance, which allows for improved alignment and smoothness via a dense pixel-level objective. Our evaluations, conducted with a multi-view volumetric capture system, indicate that EMDB has an expected accuracy of 2.3 cm positional and 10.6 degrees angular error, surpassing the accuracy of previous in-the-wild datasets. We evaluate existing state-of-the-art monocular RGB methods for camera-relative and global pose estimation on EMDB. EMDB is publicly available under https://ait.ethz.ch/emdb

The mainstream of the existing approaches for video prediction builds up their models based on a Single-In-Single-Out (SISO) architecture, which takes the current frame as input to predict the next frame in a recursive manner. This way often leads to severe performance degradation when they try to extrapolate a longer period of future, thus limiting the practical use of the prediction model. Alternatively, a Multi-In-Multi-Out (MIMO) architecture that outputs all the future frames at one shot naturally breaks the recursive manner and therefore prevents error accumulation. However, only a few MIMO models for video prediction are proposed and they only achieve inferior performance due to the date. The real strength of the MIMO model in this area is not well noticed and is largely under-explored. Motivated by that, we conduct a comprehensive investigation in this paper to thoroughly exploit how far a simple MIMO architecture can go. Surprisingly, our empirical studies reveal that a simple MIMO model can outperform the state-of-the-art work with a large margin much more than expected, especially in dealing with longterm error accumulation. After exploring a number of ways and designs, we propose a new MIMO architecture based on extending the pure Transformer with local spatio-temporal blocks and a new multi-output decoder, namely MIMO-VP, to establish a new standard in video prediction. We evaluate our model in four highly competitive benchmarks (Moving MNIST, Human3.6M, Weather, KITTI). Extensive experiments show that our model wins 1st place on all the benchmarks with remarkable performance gains and surpasses the best SISO model in all aspects including efficiency, quantity, and quality. We believe our model can serve as a new baseline to facilitate the future research of video prediction tasks. The code will be released.

As the vocabulary size of modern word-based language models becomes ever larger, many sampling-based training criteria are proposed and investigated. The essence of these sampling methods is that the softmax-related traversal over the entire vocabulary can be simplified, giving speedups compared to the baseline. A problem we notice about the current landscape of such sampling methods is the lack of a systematic comparison and some myths about preferring one over another. In this work, we consider Monte Carlo sampling, importance sampling, a novel method we call compensated partial summation, and noise contrastive estimation. Linking back to the three traditional criteria, namely mean squared error, binary cross-entropy, and cross-entropy, we derive the theoretical solutions to the training problems. Contrary to some common belief, we show that all these sampling methods can perform equally well, as long as we correct for the intended class posterior probabilities. Experimental results in language modeling and automatic speech recognition on Switchboard and LibriSpeech support our claim, with all sampling-based methods showing similar perplexities and word error rates while giving the expected speedups.

To support software developers in finding and fixing software bugs, several automated program repair techniques have been introduced. Given a test suite, standard methods usually either synthesize a repair, or navigate a search space of software edits to find test-suite passing variants. Recent program repair methods are based on deep learning approaches. One of these novel methods, which is not primarily intended for automated program repair, but is still suitable for it, is ChatGPT. The bug fixing performance of ChatGPT, however, is so far unclear. Therefore, in this paper we evaluate ChatGPT on the standard bug fixing benchmark set, QuixBugs, and compare the performance with the results of several other approaches reported in the literature. We find that ChatGPT's bug fixing performance is competitive to the common deep learning approaches CoCoNut and Codex and notably better than the results reported for the standard program repair approaches. In contrast to previous approaches, ChatGPT offers a dialogue system through which further information, e.g., the expected output for a certain input or an observed error message, can be entered. By providing such hints to ChatGPT, its success rate can be further increased, fixing 31 out of 40 bugs, outperforming state-of-the-art.

Designing an optimum portfolio that allocates weights to its constituent stocks in a way that achieves the best trade-off between the return and the risk is a challenging research problem. The classical mean-variance theory of portfolio proposed by Markowitz is found to perform sub-optimally on the real-world stock market data since the error in estimation for the expected returns adversely affects the performance of the portfolio. This paper presents three approaches to portfolio design, viz, the minimum risk portfolio, the optimum risk portfolio, and the Eigen portfolio, for seven important sectors of the Indian stock market. The daily historical prices of the stocks are scraped from Yahoo Finance website from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Three portfolios are built for each of the seven sectors chosen for this study, and the portfolios are analyzed on the training data based on several metrics such as annualized return and risk, weights assigned to the constituent stocks, the correlation heatmaps, and the principal components of the Eigen portfolios. Finally, the optimum risk portfolios and the Eigen portfolios for all sectors are tested on their return over a period of a six-month period. The performances of the portfolios are compared and the portfolio yielding the higher return for each sector is identified.

Continual learning (CL), which aims to learn a sequence of tasks, has attracted significant recent attention. However, most work has focused on the experimental performance of CL, and theoretical studies of CL are still limited. In particular, there is a lack of understanding on what factors are important and how they affect "catastrophic forgetting" and generalization performance. To fill this gap, our theoretical analysis, under overparameterized linear models, provides the first-known explicit form of the expected forgetting and generalization error. Further analysis of such a key result yields a number of theoretical explanations about how overparameterization, task similarity, and task ordering affect both forgetting and generalization error of CL. More interestingly, by conducting experiments on real datasets using deep neural networks (DNNs), we show that some of these insights even go beyond the linear models and can be carried over to practical setups. In particular, we use concrete examples to show that our results not only explain some interesting empirical observations in recent studies, but also motivate better practical algorithm designs of CL.

Speech quality estimation has recently undergone a paradigm shift from human-hearing expert designs to machine-learning models. However, current models rely mainly on supervised learning, which is time-consuming and expensive for label collection. To solve this problem, we propose VQScore, a self-supervised metric for evaluating speech based on the quantization error of a vector-quantized-variational autoencoder (VQ-VAE). The training of VQ-VAE relies on clean speech; hence, large quantization errors can be expected when the speech is distorted. To further improve correlation with real quality scores, domain knowledge of speech processing is incorporated into the model design. We found that the vector quantization mechanism could also be used for self-supervised speech enhancement (SE) model training. To improve the robustness of the encoder for SE, a novel self-distillation mechanism combined with adversarial training is introduced. In summary, the proposed speech quality estimation method and enhancement models require only clean speech for training without any label requirements. Experimental results show that the proposed VQScore and enhancement model are competitive with supervised baselines. The code will be released after publication.

Unit tests (UTs) play an instrumental role in assessing code correctness as well as providing feedback to a large language model (LLM) as it iteratively debugs faulty code, motivating automated test generation. However, we uncover a trade-off between generating unit test inputs that reveal errors when given a faulty code and correctly predicting the unit test output without access to the gold solution. To address this trade-off, we propose UTGen, which teaches LLMs to generate unit test inputs that reveal errors along with their correct expected outputs based on task descriptions and candidate code. We integrate UTGen into UTDebug, a robust debugging pipeline that uses generated tests to help LLMs debug effectively. Since model-generated tests can provide noisy signals (e.g., from incorrectly predicted outputs), UTDebug (i) scales UTGen via test-time compute to improve UT output prediction, and (ii) validates and back-tracks edits based on multiple generated UTs to avoid overfitting. We show that UTGen outperforms UT generation baselines by 7.59% based on a metric measuring the presence of both error-revealing UT inputs and correct UT outputs. When used with UTDebug, we find that feedback from UTGen's unit tests improves pass@1 accuracy of Qwen-2.5 7B on HumanEvalFix and our own harder debugging split of MBPP+ by over 3% and 12.35% (respectively) over other LLM-based UT generation baselines.

AI agents are systems capable of perceiving their environment, autonomously planning and executing tasks. Recent advancements in LLM have introduced a transformative paradigm for AI agents, enabling them to interact with external resources and tools through prompts. In such agents, the workflow integrates developer-written code, which manages framework construction and logic control, with LLM-generated natural language that enhances dynamic decision-making and interaction. However, discrepancies between developer-implemented logic and the dynamically generated content of LLMs in terms of behavior and expected outcomes can lead to defects, such as tool invocation failures and task execution errors. These issues introduce specific risks, leading to various defects in LLM-based AI Agents, such as service interruptions. Despite the importance of these issues, there is a lack of systematic work that focuses on analyzing LLM-based AI Agents to uncover defects in their code. In this paper, we present the first study focused on identifying and detecting defects in LLM Agents. We collected and analyzed 6,854 relevant posts from StackOverflow to define 8 types of agent defects. For each type, we provided detailed descriptions with an example. Then, we designed a static analysis tool, named Agentable, to detect the defects. Agentable leverages Code Property Graphs and LLMs to analyze Agent workflows by efficiently identifying specific code patterns and analyzing natural language descriptions. To evaluate Agentable, we constructed two datasets: AgentSet, consists of 84 real-world Agents, and AgentTest, which contains 78 Agents specifically designed to include various types of defects. Our results show that Agentable achieved an overall accuracy of 88.79% and a recall rate of 91.03%. Furthermore, our analysis reveals the 889 defects of the AgentSet, highlighting the prevalence of these defects.

Software is used in critical applications in our day-to-day life and it is important to ensure its correctness. One popular approach to assess correctness is to evaluate software on tests. If a test fails, it indicates a fault in the software under test; if all tests pass correctly, one may assume that the software is correct. However, the reliability of these results depends on the test suite considered, and there is a risk of false negatives (i.e. software that passes all available tests but contains bugs because some cases are not tested). Therefore, it is important to consider error-inducing test cases when evaluating software. To support data-driven creation of such a test-suite, which is especially of interest for testing software synthesized from large language models, we curate a dataset (Codehacks) of programming problems together with corresponding error-inducing test cases (i.e., "hacks"). This dataset is collected from the wild, in particular, from the Codeforces online judge platform. The dataset comprises 288,617 hacks for 5,578 programming problems, each with a natural language description, as well as the source code for 2,196 submitted solutions to these problems that can be broken with their corresponding hacks. Keywords: competitive programming, language model, dataset

Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) such as GPT-4V and LLaVA have shown remarkable capabilities in visual reasoning with common image styles. However, their robustness against diverse style shifts, crucial for practical applications, remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose a new benchmark, BenchLMM, to assess the robustness of LMMs against three different styles: artistic image style, imaging sensor style, and application style, where each style has five sub-styles. Utilizing BenchLMM, we comprehensively evaluate state-of-the-art LMMs and reveal: 1) LMMs generally suffer performance degradation when working with other styles; 2) An LMM performs better than another model in common style does not guarantee its superior performance in other styles; 3) LMMs' reasoning capability can be enhanced by prompting LMMs to predict the style first, based on which we propose a versatile and training-free method for improving LMMs; 4) An intelligent LMM is expected to interpret the causes of its errors when facing stylistic variations. We hope that our benchmark and analysis can shed new light on developing more intelligent and versatile LMMs.

In Grammatical Error Correction, systems are evaluated by the number of errors they correct. However, no one has assessed whether all error types are equally important. We provide and apply a method to quantify the importance of different grammatical error types to humans. We show that some rare errors are considered disturbing while other common ones are not. This affects possible directions to improve both systems and their evaluation.

Context: The SZZ algorithm is the de facto standard for labeling bug fixing commits and finding inducing changes for defect prediction data. Recent research uncovered potential problems in different parts of the SZZ algorithm. Most defect prediction data sets provide only static code metrics as features, while research indicates that other features are also important. Objective: We provide an empirical analysis of the defect labels created with the SZZ algorithm and the impact of commonly used features on results. Method: We used a combination of manual validation and adopted or improved heuristics for the collection of defect data. We conducted an empirical study on 398 releases of 38 Apache projects. Results: We found that only half of the bug fixing commits determined by SZZ are actually bug fixing. If a six-month time frame is used in combination with SZZ to determine which bugs affect a release, one file is incorrectly labeled as defective for every file that is correctly labeled as defective. In addition, two defective files are missed. We also explored the impact of the relatively small set of features that are available in most defect prediction data sets, as there are multiple publications that indicate that, e.g., churn related features are important for defect prediction. We found that the difference of using more features is not significant. Conclusion: Problems with inaccurate defect labels are a severe threat to the validity of the state of the art of defect prediction. Small feature sets seem to be a less severe threat.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Maybe not. We identify and analyse errors in the popular Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmark. Even though MMLU is widely adopted, our analysis demonstrates numerous ground truth errors that obscure the true capabilities of LLMs. For example, we find that 57% of the analysed questions in the Virology subset contain errors. To address this issue, we introduce a comprehensive framework for identifying dataset errors using a novel error taxonomy. Then, we create MMLU-Redux, which is a subset of 3,000 manually re-annotated questions across 30 MMLU subjects. Using MMLU-Redux, we demonstrate significant discrepancies with the model performance metrics that were originally reported. Our results strongly advocate for revising MMLU's error-ridden questions to enhance its future utility and reliability as a benchmark. Therefore, we open up MMLU-Redux for additional annotation https://huggingface.co/datasets/edinburgh-dawg/mmlu-redux.

Language models have demonstrated remarkable performance in solving reasoning tasks; however, even the strongest models still occasionally make reasoning mistakes. Recently, there has been active research aimed at improving reasoning accuracy, particularly by using pretrained language models to "self-correct" their mistakes via multi-round prompting. In this paper, we follow this line of work but focus on understanding the usefulness of incorporating "error-correction" data directly into the pretraining stage. This data consists of erroneous solution steps immediately followed by their corrections. Using a synthetic math dataset, we show promising results: this type of pretrain data can help language models achieve higher reasoning accuracy directly (i.e., through simple auto-regression, without multi-round prompting) compared to pretraining on the same amount of error-free data. We also delve into many details, such as (1) how this approach differs from beam search, (2) how such data can be prepared, (3) whether masking is needed on the erroneous tokens, (4) the amount of error required, (5) whether such data can be deferred to the fine-tuning stage, and many others.

We introduce a few-shot learning framework for error detection. We show that data augmentation (a form of weak supervision) is key to training high-quality, ML-based error detection models that require minimal human involvement. Our framework consists of two parts: (1) an expressive model to learn rich representations that capture the inherent syntactic and semantic heterogeneity of errors; and (2) a data augmentation model that, given a small seed of clean records, uses dataset-specific transformations to automatically generate additional training data. Our key insight is to learn data augmentation policies from the noisy input dataset in a weakly supervised manner. We show that our framework detects errors with an average precision of ~94% and an average recall of ~93% across a diverse array of datasets that exhibit different types and amounts of errors. We compare our approach to a comprehensive collection of error detection methods, ranging from traditional rule-based methods to ensemble-based and active learning approaches. We show that data augmentation yields an average improvement of 20 F1 points while it requires access to 3x fewer labeled examples compared to other ML approaches.

Error Feedback (EF) is a highly popular and immensely effective mechanism for fixing convergence issues which arise in distributed training methods (such as distributed GD or SGD) when these are enhanced with greedy communication compression techniques such as TopK. While EF was proposed almost a decade ago (Seide et al., 2014), and despite concentrated effort by the community to advance the theoretical understanding of this mechanism, there is still a lot to explore. In this work we study a modern form of error feedback called EF21 (Richtarik et al., 2021) which offers the currently best-known theoretical guarantees, under the weakest assumptions, and also works well in practice. In particular, while the theoretical communication complexity of EF21 depends on the quadratic mean of certain smoothness parameters, we improve this dependence to their arithmetic mean, which is always smaller, and can be substantially smaller, especially in heterogeneous data regimes. We take the reader on a journey of our discovery process. Starting with the idea of applying EF21 to an equivalent reformulation of the underlying problem which (unfortunately) requires (often impractical) machine cloning, we continue to the discovery of a new weighted version of EF21 which can (fortunately) be executed without any cloning, and finally circle back to an improved analysis of the original EF21 method. While this development applies to the simplest form of EF21, our approach naturally extends to more elaborate variants involving stochastic gradients and partial participation. Further, our technique improves the best-known theory of EF21 in the rare features regime (Richtarik et al., 2023). Finally, we validate our theoretical findings with suitable experiments.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

Despite its crucial role in research experiments, code correctness is often presumed only on the basis of the perceived quality of results. This assumption comes with the risk of erroneous outcomes and potentially misleading findings. To address this issue, we posit that the current focus on reproducibility should go hand in hand with the emphasis on software quality. We present a case study in which we identify and fix three bugs in widely used implementations of the state-of-the-art Conformer architecture. Through experiments on speech recognition and translation in various languages, we demonstrate that the presence of bugs does not prevent the achievement of good and reproducible results, which however can lead to incorrect conclusions that potentially misguide future research. As a countermeasure, we propose a Code-quality Checklist and release pangoliNN, a library dedicated to testing neural models, with the goal of promoting coding best practices and improving research software quality within the NLP community.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

Large language models (LLMs) possess impressive linguistic capabilities but often fail to faithfully retain factual knowledge, leading to hallucinations and unreliable outputs. Understanding LLMs' knowledge deficiencies by exhaustively evaluating against full-scale knowledge bases is computationally prohibitive, especially for closed-weight models. We propose stochastic error ascent (SEA), a scalable and efficient framework for discovering knowledge deficiencies (errors) in closed-weight LLMs under a strict query budget. Rather than naively probing all knowledge candidates, SEA formulates error discovery as a stochastic optimization process: it iteratively retrieves new high-error candidates by leveraging the semantic similarity to previously observed failures. To further enhance search efficiency and coverage, SEA employs hierarchical retrieval across document and paragraph levels, and constructs a relation directed acyclic graph to model error propagation and identify systematic failure modes. Empirically, SEA uncovers 40.7x more knowledge errors than Automated Capability Discovery and 26.7% more than AutoBencher, while reducing the cost-per-error by 599x and 9x, respectively. Human evaluation confirms the high quality of generated questions, while ablation and convergence analyses validate the contribution of each component in SEA. Further analysis on the discovered errors reveals correlated failure patterns across LLM families and recurring deficits, highlighting the need for better data coverage and targeted fine-tuning in future LLM development.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capability in solving mathematical problems. However, existing approaches primarily focus on improving the quality of correct training data, e.g., distilling high-quality correct solutions from advanced models, neglecting the value contained in error data, potentially hindering the model's reflective ability. Though some studies attempt to leverage error data, they often involve complex mechanisms, such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to explore error nodes. In this work, we propose to enhance LLMs' reasoning ability by Learning from Errors for Mathematical Advancement (LEMMA). LEMMA constructs data consisting of an incorrect solution with an erroneous step and a reflection connection to a correct solution for fine-tuning. Specifically, we systematically analyze the model-generated error types and introduce an error-type grounded mistake augmentation method to collect diverse and representative errors. Correct solutions are either from fixing the errors or generating a fresh start. Through a model-aware smooth reflection connection, the erroneous solution is transferred to the correct one. By fine-tuning on the constructed dataset, the model is able to self-correct errors autonomously within the generation process without relying on external critique models. Experimental results demonstrate that LEMMA achieves significant performance improvements over other strong baselines.