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Oct 20

IISE PG&E Energy Analytics Challenge 2025: Hourly-Binned Regression Models Beat Transformers in Load Forecasting

Accurate electricity load forecasting is essential for grid stability, resource optimization, and renewable energy integration. While transformer-based deep learning models like TimeGPT have gained traction in time-series forecasting, their effectiveness in long-term electricity load prediction remains uncertain. This study evaluates forecasting models ranging from classical regression techniques to advanced deep learning architectures using data from the ESD 2025 competition. The dataset includes two years of historical electricity load data, alongside temperature and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) across five sites, with a one-day-ahead forecasting horizon. Since actual test set load values remain undisclosed, leveraging predicted values would accumulate errors, making this a long-term forecasting challenge. We employ (i) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction and (ii) frame the task as a regression problem, using temperature and GHI as covariates to predict load for each hour, (iii) ultimately stacking 24 models to generate yearly forecasts. Our results reveal that deep learning models, including TimeGPT, fail to consistently outperform simpler statistical and machine learning approaches due to the limited availability of training data and exogenous variables. In contrast, XGBoost, with minimal feature engineering, delivers the lowest error rates across all test cases while maintaining computational efficiency. This highlights the limitations of deep learning in long-term electricity forecasting and reinforces the importance of model selection based on dataset characteristics rather than complexity. Our study provides insights into practical forecasting applications and contributes to the ongoing discussion on the trade-offs between traditional and modern forecasting methods.

  • 3 authors
·
May 16, 2025

SPDNet: Seasonal-Periodic Decomposition Network for Advanced Residential Demand Forecasting

Residential electricity demand forecasting is critical for efficient energy management and grid stability. Accurate predictions enable utility companies to optimize planning and operations. However, real-world residential electricity demand data often exhibit intricate temporal variability, including multiple seasonalities, periodicities, and abrupt fluctuations, which pose significant challenges for forecasting models. Previous models that rely on statistical methods, recurrent, convolutional neural networks, and transformers often struggle to capture these intricate temporal dynamics. To address these challenges, we propose the Seasonal-Periodic Decomposition Network (SPDNet), a novel deep learning framework consisting of two main modules. The first is the Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Module (STDM), which decomposes the input data into trend, seasonal, and residual components. The second is the Periodical Decomposition Module (PDM), which employs the Fast Fourier Transform to identify the dominant periods. For each dominant period, 1D input data is reshaped into a 2D tensor, where rows represent periods and columns correspond to frequencies. The 2D representations are then processed through three submodules: a 1D convolution to capture sharp fluctuations, a transformer-based encoder to model global patterns, and a 2D convolution to capture interactions between periods. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world residential electricity load data demonstrate that SPDNet outperforms traditional and advanced models in both forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency. The code is available in this repository: https://github.com/Tims2D/SPDNet.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 27, 2025

Generative 3D Gaussians with Learned Density Control

We present Density-Sampled Gaussians (DeG), a novel 3D representation designed to bridge the gap between adaptive rendering primitives and scalable generative modeling. Unlike existing approaches that constrain 3D Gaussians to fixed voxel grids or arrays, DeG models Gaussian centers as samples from a learnable probability density function defined over an octree. This formulation provides a rigorous mathematical framework for adaptive density control: by jointly optimizing the spatial density and Gaussian attributes under rendering supervision, our model naturally concentrates primitives in regions of high geometric complexity. We achieve this via a new render loss contribution gradient that serves as a fully differentiable analogue to the discrete densification and pruning heuristics used in standard Gaussian Splatting. The resulting representation is highly flexible, supporting variable-resolution decoding from a single latent code by simply adjusting the sampling budget. To enable generative synthesis, we train a latent diffusion model on DeG. We identify a critical challenge in applying diffusion to unordered set-structured latents, which can significantly slow convergence, and propose VecSeq, a canonical re-indexing mechanism that anchors latent tokens to a deterministic 3D Sobol sequence. This transforms the ambiguous set-generation problem into a robust sequence modeling task. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our pipeline achieves state-of-the-art quality in single-image-to-3D generation, combining the structural adaptivity of unstructured primitives with the training stability of grid-based methods.

  • 5 authors
·
May 7 1

Analysis of grid instabilities in particle-in-cell codes based on a meshfree approach

A new method of analyzing grid, or aliasing, instabilities is described, in particle-in-cell (PIC) codes for plasma kinetic theory. It starts with a meshfree approach with N_{p} macroparticles, with N_{p}<infty. Linearization of these equations is done about a uniform density non-drifting equilibrium prescribed by macroparticles on a uniform lattice. Macroparticle positions perturbations are induced about this lattice. The resulting linear equations are analyzed for stability and dispersion relations. The linearized equations are then discretized on a grid of N_{g} points with N_{g} le N_{p}, in both momentum conserving (MCP) and energy conserving (ECP) formulations. For a cold stationary plasma, this leads a dynamical matrix. For ECP, the matrix is symmetric and positive definite (SPD) and immediately shows stability. For MCP, the dynamical matrix is neither symmetric nor positive definite, preventing immediate conclusions on stability. For both MCP and ECP and for a cold stationary plasma, the resulting matrix elements vary relative to the meshfree value, a result of aliasing. This deviation is periodic in the displacement of the particle lattice relative to the grid. In the MCP discretization, eigenvalues occur in complex conjugate pairs for general placement of the particle lattice relative to the grid. These conjugate pairs indicate nonnegative growth rates. The nature of the aliasing is studied and shown to be related to the trapezoidal rule error over the grid. The scaling of the linear growth rates with respect to N_{g} and especially with respect to N_{ppc} is studied. These analytical results are compared with PIC simulations and found to be in excellent agreement. The connection with a cold drifting beam is discussed briefly, specifically, grid-induced instabilities for both the MCP and ECP.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 30

Grid-Mind: An LLM-Orchestrated Multi-Fidelity Agent for Automated Connection Impact Assessment

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable tool-use capabilities, yet their application to power system operations remains largely unexplored. This paper presents Grid-Mind, a domain-specific LLM agent that interprets natural-language interconnection requests and autonomously orchestrates multi-fidelity power system simulations. The LLM-first architecture positions the language model as the central decision-making entity, employing an eleven-tool registry to execute Connection Impact Assessment (CIA) studies spanning steadystate power flow, N-1 contingency analysis, transient stability, and electromagnetic transient screening. A violation inspector grounds every decision in quantitative simulation outputs, while a three-layer anti-hallucination defence mitigates numerical fabrication risk through forced capacity-tool routing and post-response grounding validation. A prompt-level self-correction mechanism extracts distilled lessons from agent failures, yielding progressive accuracy improvements without model retraining. End-to-end evaluation on 50 IEEE 118-bus scenarios (DeepSeek-V3, 2026-02-23) achieved 84.0% tool-selection accuracy and 100% parsing accuracy. A separate 56-scenario self-correction suite passed 49 of 56 cases (87.5%) with a mean score of 89.3. These results establish a reproducible baseline for continued refinement while maintaining auditable, simulation-grounded decision support.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 24

The Role of Deep Learning in Advancing Proactive Cybersecurity Measures for Smart Grid Networks: A Survey

As smart grids (SG) increasingly rely on advanced technologies like sensors and communication systems for efficient energy generation, distribution, and consumption, they become enticing targets for sophisticated cyberattacks. These evolving threats demand robust security measures to maintain the stability and resilience of modern energy systems. While extensive research has been conducted, a comprehensive exploration of proactive cyber defense strategies utilizing Deep Learning (DL) in {SG} remains scarce in the literature. This survey bridges this gap, studying the latest DL techniques for proactive cyber defense. The survey begins with an overview of related works and our distinct contributions, followed by an examination of SG infrastructure. Next, we classify various cyber defense techniques into reactive and proactive categories. A significant focus is placed on DL-enabled proactive defenses, where we provide a comprehensive taxonomy of DL approaches, highlighting their roles and relevance in the proactive security of SG. Subsequently, we analyze the most significant DL-based methods currently in use. Further, we explore Moving Target Defense, a proactive defense strategy, and its interactions with DL methodologies. We then provide an overview of benchmark datasets used in this domain to substantiate the discourse.{ This is followed by a critical discussion on their practical implications and broader impact on cybersecurity in Smart Grids.} The survey finally lists the challenges associated with deploying DL-based security systems within SG, followed by an outlook on future developments in this key field.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 11, 2024

Energy-barrier characterization of secured basins in coupled oscillators with inertia

The second-order Kuramoto model captures rotor dynamics relevant to synchronization in power grids. In actual power grids, violation of angle-stability limits can trigger protective actions that are not included in the model, restricting its validity to trajectories that remain within these limits. We therefore define the secured basin as the region of disturbance space comprising disturbances whose trajectories remain within the angle-stability limits throughout the transient. We then characterize the secured basin through energy barriers, quantifying their characteristic energy scale and heterogeneity across perturbation directions. Across seven power-grid models, this characterization revealed angle-stability vulnerabilities overlooked when stability is assessed solely by the final synchronization state. It also showed that the two energy-barrier measures characterizing the secured basin exhibit distinct associations with structural connectivity and dynamical parameters. This characterization further offers practical advantages, as energy thresholds derived from state-space perturbations remain effective in distinguishing secured and unsecured outcomes under short-duration power disturbances and can be estimated efficiently by concentrating simulations near the secured-basin boundary. Overall, the secured-basin framework provides a useful basis for distinguishing node-level structural and dynamical influences on transient stability in oscillator networks with synchronization constraints.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 7

Coordinate-Aware Modulation for Neural Fields

Neural fields, mapping low-dimensional input coordinates to corresponding signals, have shown promising results in representing various signals. Numerous methodologies have been proposed, and techniques employing MLPs and grid representations have achieved substantial success. MLPs allow compact and high expressibility, yet often suffer from spectral bias and slow convergence speed. On the other hand, methods using grids are free from spectral bias and achieve fast training speed, however, at the expense of high spatial complexity. In this work, we propose a novel way for exploiting both MLPs and grid representations in neural fields. Unlike the prevalent methods that combine them sequentially (extract features from the grids first and feed them to the MLP), we inject spectral bias-free grid representations into the intermediate features in the MLP. More specifically, we suggest a Coordinate-Aware Modulation (CAM), which modulates the intermediate features using scale and shift parameters extracted from the grid representations. This can maintain the strengths of MLPs while mitigating any remaining potential biases, facilitating the rapid learning of high-frequency components. In addition, we empirically found that the feature normalizations, which have not been successful in neural filed literature, proved to be effective when applied in conjunction with the proposed CAM. Experimental results demonstrate that CAM enhances the performance of neural representation and improves learning stability across a range of signals. Especially in the novel view synthesis task, we achieved state-of-the-art performance with the least number of parameters and fast training speed for dynamic scenes and the best performance under 1MB memory for static scenes. CAM also outperforms the best-performing video compression methods using neural fields by a large margin.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 25, 2023

amerta: A Python Library for Idealized 1D Saint--Venant Dam-Break Simulation

The Saint-Venant shallow water equations (SWE) govern depth-integrated free-surface flows arising in dam-break inundation, flood routing, tsunami runup, and estuarine tidal dynamics. Closed-form analytical solutions exist only for highly idealized Riemann configurations, making rigorously verified numerical solvers essential. This work presents amerta, an open-source Python library that solves the one-dimensional frictionless Saint-Venant system on a uniform Cartesian grid using Monotone Upstream-centered Schemes for Conservation Laws (MUSCL) reconstruction with a minmod slope limiter, the Harten-Lax-van Leer-Contact (HLLC) approximate Riemann solver, and two-stage strong-stability-preserving Runge-Kutta (SSP-RK) time integration. Numba just-in-time (JIT) compilation accelerates the performance-critical kernels. The solver is verified end-to-end against the four canonical Riemann configurations: wet-bed dam break, dry-bed dam break, double rarefaction, and double shock. A six-component post-processing pipeline quantifies space-time topology, final-time error norms with empirical quantile decomposition, self-similarity collapse onto the analytical Riemann fan, integral-norm evolution, boundary-flux-corrected mass and energy diagnostics, and phase-plane analysis against analytical wave curves. The implementation conserves discrete mass to floating-point precision, satisfies discrete entropy admissibility identically, and reproduces all four analytical wave-curve geometries to within sub-centimetre accuracy in the depth-velocity phase plane. The complete source code, analytical-solution evaluators, post-processing scripts, and Network Common Data Format (NetCDF) archives are released under the MIT license.

  • 9 authors
·
May 28

Geometric Stability: The Missing Axis of Representations

Representational similarity methods compare the geometries of neural representations, but they do not measure how consistently the geometry of a single representation is recovered from subsets of its feature coordinates. We call this property geometric stability and introduce Shesha, which estimates it by correlating representational dissimilarity matrices from complementary random feature subsets. Shesha is not invariant to orthogonal rotations: representations with identical Gram matrices, and therefore identical linear CKA, can have different geometric stability. Controlled transformations further separate the quantities. Across 2{,}463 encoder configurations spanning seven domains, similarity and stability are positively associated across non-PCA transformations (ρ=+0.75) but negatively associated under PCA-coordinate compression (ρ=-0.47). We further evaluate 170 pretrained vision models across six datasets. DINOv2 combines strong transfer performance with bottom-quartile stability on five of six datasets, showing that transferability and feature-split stability need not coincide. Across random feature subsets, the marginal relationship between Shesha and linear-probe variability is dataset-dependent; after controlling for task alignment with LogME, higher Shesha is associated with lower variability on five of six datasets. These results identify geometric stability as a basis-dependent property that complements representational similarity and task alignment.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 30 2

StableWorld: Towards Stable and Consistent Long Interactive Video Generation

In this paper, we explore the overlooked challenge of stability and temporal consistency in interactive video generation, which synthesizes dynamic and controllable video worlds through interactive behaviors such as camera movements and text prompts. Despite remarkable progress in world modeling, current methods still suffer from severe instability and temporal degradation, often leading to spatial drift and scene collapse during long-horizon interactions. To better understand this issue, we initially investigate the underlying causes of instability and identify that the major source of error accumulation originates from the same scene, where generated frames gradually deviate from the initial clean state and propagate errors to subsequent frames. Building upon this observation, we propose a simple yet effective method, StableWorld, a Dynamic Frame Eviction Mechanism. By continuously filtering out degraded frames while retaining geometrically consistent ones, StableWorld effectively prevents cumulative drift at its source, leading to more stable and temporal consistency of interactive generation. Promising results on multiple interactive video models, \eg, Matrix-Game, Open-Oasis, and Hunyuan-GameCraft, demonstrate that StableWorld is model-agnostic and can be applied to different interactive video generation frameworks to substantially improve stability, temporal consistency, and generalization across diverse interactive scenarios.

  • 9 authors
·
Jan 21

Small-scale proxies for large-scale Transformer training instabilities

Teams that have trained large Transformer-based models have reported training instabilities at large scale that did not appear when training with the same hyperparameters at smaller scales. Although the causes of such instabilities are of scientific interest, the amount of resources required to reproduce them has made investigation difficult. In this work, we seek ways to reproduce and study training stability and instability at smaller scales. First, we focus on two sources of training instability described in previous work: the growth of logits in attention layers (Dehghani et al., 2023) and divergence of the output logits from the log probabilities (Chowdhery et al., 2022). By measuring the relationship between learning rate and loss across scales, we show that these instabilities also appear in small models when training at high learning rates, and that mitigations previously employed at large scales are equally effective in this regime. This prompts us to investigate the extent to which other known optimizer and model interventions influence the sensitivity of the final loss to changes in the learning rate. To this end, we study methods such as warm-up, weight decay, and the muParam (Yang et al., 2022), and combine techniques to train small models that achieve similar losses across orders of magnitude of learning rate variation. Finally, to conclude our exploration we study two cases where instabilities can be predicted before they emerge by examining the scaling behavior of model activation and gradient norms.

  • 16 authors
·
Sep 25, 2023 2

Multi-Grid Post-Training for Long-Form Multi-Shot Video Generation

Generating long-form multi-shot videos requires coherent within-shot motion and visually consistent narratives across shots. Existing video generators favor continuous motion and struggle to present complete shot sets when an entire narrative is packed along one temporal axis. We propose MovieGrid, a Multi-Grid Post-Training paradigm that decomposes a long video into shorter, temporally ordered chunks and arranges them on a spatial grid for joint modeling. This design reduces the number of shots handled by each temporal axis while enabling global information exchange across chunks. We construct the Multi-Grid Long Video (MGLV) dataset from 1,000 long-form videos using source video collection, hierarchical segmentation, grid video construction, and character-aware story annotation, producing 54K grid videos paired with story prompts. Our Noise-Free Random-Grid Training retains a random subset of chunks as clean visual context for denoising the remaining chunks. Grid Embedding encodes grid structure, character-aware Story Prompts link recurring entities, and Grid Boundary Loss stabilizes layouts. Under the same token budget, MovieGrid generates 6.05 times more shots than Temporal Packing in a 1,616-frame video. On a benchmark spanning five real-world categories, it achieves state-of-the-art intra-shot consistency (0.9131 versus 0.8086 for HoloCine) and inter-shot consistency (0.5914 versus 0.5384 for StoryMem). MovieGrid can further scale video length with minimal compromise through single or multiple generations.

  • 11 authors
·
Sep 5 2

DSO: Aligning 3D Generators with Simulation Feedback for Physical Soundness

Most 3D object generators focus on aesthetic quality, often neglecting physical constraints necessary in applications. One such constraint is that the 3D object should be self-supporting, i.e., remains balanced under gravity. Prior approaches to generating stable 3D objects used differentiable physics simulators to optimize geometry at test-time, which is slow, unstable, and prone to local optima. Inspired by the literature on aligning generative models to external feedback, we propose Direct Simulation Optimization (DSO), a framework to use the feedback from a (non-differentiable) simulator to increase the likelihood that the 3D generator outputs stable 3D objects directly. We construct a dataset of 3D objects labeled with a stability score obtained from the physics simulator. We can then fine-tune the 3D generator using the stability score as the alignment metric, via direct preference optimization (DPO) or direct reward optimization (DRO), a novel objective, which we introduce, to align diffusion models without requiring pairwise preferences. Our experiments show that the fine-tuned feed-forward generator, using either DPO or DRO objective, is much faster and more likely to produce stable objects than test-time optimization. Notably, the DSO framework works even without any ground-truth 3D objects for training, allowing the 3D generator to self-improve by automatically collecting simulation feedback on its own outputs.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 28, 2025 2

ConStellaration: A dataset of QI-like stellarator plasma boundaries and optimization benchmarks

Stellarators are magnetic confinement devices under active development to deliver steady-state carbon-free fusion energy. Their design involves a high-dimensional, constrained optimization problem that requires expensive physics simulations and significant domain expertise. Recent advances in plasma physics and open-source tools have made stellarator optimization more accessible. However, broader community progress is currently bottlenecked by the lack of standardized optimization problems with strong baselines and datasets that enable data-driven approaches, particularly for quasi-isodynamic (QI) stellarator configurations, considered as a promising path to commercial fusion due to their inherent resilience to current-driven disruptions. Here, we release an open dataset of diverse QI-like stellarator plasma boundary shapes, paired with their ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equilibria and performance metrics. We generated this dataset by sampling a variety of QI fields and optimizing corresponding stellarator plasma boundaries. We introduce three optimization benchmarks of increasing complexity: (1) a single-objective geometric optimization problem, (2) a "simple-to-build" QI stellarator, and (3) a multi-objective ideal-MHD stable QI stellarator that investigates trade-offs between compactness and coil simplicity. For every benchmark, we provide reference code, evaluation scripts, and strong baselines based on classical optimization techniques. Finally, we show how learned models trained on our dataset can efficiently generate novel, feasible configurations without querying expensive physics oracles. By openly releasing the dataset along with benchmark problems and baselines, we aim to lower the entry barrier for optimization and machine learning researchers to engage in stellarator design and to accelerate cross-disciplinary progress toward bringing fusion energy to the grid.

  • 11 authors
·
Jun 24, 2025

StEik: Stabilizing the Optimization of Neural Signed Distance Functions and Finer Shape Representation

We present new insights and a novel paradigm (StEik) for learning implicit neural representations (INR) of shapes. In particular, we shed light on the popular eikonal loss used for imposing a signed distance function constraint in INR. We show analytically that as the representation power of the network increases, the optimization approaches a partial differential equation (PDE) in the continuum limit that is unstable. We show that this instability can manifest in existing network optimization, leading to irregularities in the reconstructed surface and/or convergence to sub-optimal local minima, and thus fails to capture fine geometric and topological structure. We show analytically how other terms added to the loss, currently used in the literature for other purposes, can actually eliminate these instabilities. However, such terms can over-regularize the surface, preventing the representation of fine shape detail. Based on a similar PDE theory for the continuum limit, we introduce a new regularization term that still counteracts the eikonal instability but without over-regularizing. Furthermore, since stability is now guaranteed in the continuum limit, this stabilization also allows for considering new network structures that are able to represent finer shape detail. We introduce such a structure based on quadratic layers. Experiments on multiple benchmark data sets show that our new regularization and network are able to capture more precise shape details and more accurate topology than existing state-of-the-art.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 10, 2023

Fully Compressible Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations of Solar Convection Zones with CHORUS++

The objective of this study is to develop a fully compressible magnetohydrodynamic solver for fast simulations of the global dynamo of the Sun using unstructured grids and GPUs. Accurate modeling of the Sun's convective layers is vital to predicting the Sun's behavior, including the solar dynamo and sunspot cycles. Currently, there are many efficient codes capable of conducting these large simulations; however, many assume an anealastic density distribution. The anelastic assumption is capable of producing accurate results for low mach numbers; however, it fails in regions with a higher mach number and a fully compressible flow must be considered. To avoid these issues, Wang et al. [1] created a Compressible High-ORder Unstructured Spectral difference (CHORUS) code for simulating fluid dynamics inside stars and planets. CHORUS++ augmented the CHORUS code to adopt a higher degree of polynomials by using cubed-sphere meshing and transfinite mapping to perform simulations on unstructured grids [2]. Recently, CHORUS++ was further developed for parallel magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solutions on GPUs at Clarkson University. In this study the solar benchmark problems presented by Chen et al. [2] are extended to unsteady solar dynamo problems, with two different density scale heights. The CHORUS-MHD code is further accelerated by multiple GPUs and used to successfully solve these solar dynamo benchmark problems. [1] Wang, J., Liang, C., and Miesch, M. S., "A Compressible High-Order Unstructured Spectral Difference Code for Stratified Convection in Rotating Spherical Shells," Journal of Computational Physics, Vol. 290, 2015, pp. 90-111. [2] Chen, K., Liang, C., and Wan, M., "Arbitrarily high-order accurate simulations of compressible rotationally constrained convection using a transfinite mapping on cubed-sphere grids," Physics of Fluids, Vol. 35, 2023, p. 086120.

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 24, 2025

On the transmission of floating-point perturbations in flow-dependent filter-width formulations in Large-Eddy Simulation

Heterogeneous high--performance computing architectures expose numerical algorithms to perturbations arising from the non--associativity of floating--point arithmetic. In Large--Eddy Simulation (LES), similar numerical effects may become relevant when they affect the filter--width entering the subgrid scale (SGS) model. This work investigates this mechanism for the least--squares (LSQ) based filter--width formulation, focusing on how floating--point effects are generated, transmitted, and coupled with the resolved flow. We show that, for fixed resolved kinematics, the LSQ filter--width is logarithmically non-expansive but not strictly contractive with respect to perturbations of the mesh metrics. Consequently, small disturbances may be transmitted with little attenuation through strongly directional filter-width responses. To mitigate this sensitivity, we introduce a scalar max--min compression of the directional mesh scales together with a bounded modulation based on the resolved velocity gradient. The resulting formulation reroutes floating--point perturbations through the filter-width operator, improving robustness while preserving the flow--dependent character of the original LSQ construction. The framework is assessed on heterogeneous CPU and GPU architectures for flow past a circular cylinder at Re=3900 and the Taylor--Green vortex at Re=1600. In the former, nearly one--to--one transmission of relative metric disturbances can become relevant when the transmitted perturbations interact with shear-layer transition. By contrast, on orthogonal Taylor--Green vortex grids, the accumulation pathway is structurally absent and no comparable macroscopic response develops. These results suggest floating--point sensitivity matters for LES filter--width formulations in heterogeneous computing environments.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 30

High-Fidelity Digital Twin Dataset Generation for Inverter-Based Microgrids Under Multi-Scenario Disturbances

Public power-system datasets often lack electromagnetic transient (EMT) waveforms, inverter control dynamics, and diverse disturbance coverage, which limits their usefulness for training surrogate models and studying cyber-physical behavior in inverter-based microgrids. This paper presents a high-fidelity digital twin dataset generated from a MATLAB/Simulink EMT model of a low-voltage AC microgrid with ten inverter-based distributed generators. The dataset records synchronized three-phase PCC voltages and currents, per-DG active power, reactive power, and frequency, together with embedded scenario labels, producing 38 aligned channels sampled at Δt = 2~μs over T = 1~s (N = 500{,}001 samples) per scenario. Eleven operating and disturbance scenarios are included: normal operation, load step, voltage sag (temporary three-phase fault), load ramp, frequency ramp, DG trip, tie-line trip, reactive power step, single-line-to-ground faults, measurement noise injection, and communication delay. To ensure numerical stability without altering sequence length, invalid samples (NaN, Inf, and extreme outliers) are repaired using linear interpolation. Each scenario is further validated using system-level evidence from mean frequency, PCC voltage magnitude, total active power, voltage unbalance, and zero-sequence current to confirm physical observability and correct timing. The resulting dataset provides a consistent, labeled EMT benchmark for surrogate modeling, disturbance classification, robustness testing under noise and delay, and cyber-physical resilience analysis in inverter-dominated microgrids. The dataset and processing scripts will be released upon acceptance

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 9

EAGAN: Efficient Two-stage Evolutionary Architecture Search for GANs

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have proven successful in image generation tasks. However, GAN training is inherently unstable. Although many works try to stabilize it by manually modifying GAN architecture, it requires much expertise. Neural architecture search (NAS) has become an attractive solution to search GANs automatically. The early NAS-GANs search only generators to reduce search complexity but lead to a sub-optimal GAN. Some recent works try to search both generator (G) and discriminator (D), but they suffer from the instability of GAN training. To alleviate the instability, we propose an efficient two-stage evolutionary algorithm-based NAS framework to search GANs, namely EAGAN. We decouple the search of G and D into two stages, where stage-1 searches G with a fixed D and adopts the many-to-one training strategy, and stage-2 searches D with the optimal G found in stage-1 and adopts the one-to-one training and weight-resetting strategies to enhance the stability of GAN training. Both stages use the non-dominated sorting method to produce Pareto-front architectures under multiple objectives (e.g., model size, Inception Score (IS), and Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID)). EAGAN is applied to the unconditional image generation task and can efficiently finish the search on the CIFAR-10 dataset in 1.2 GPU days. Our searched GANs achieve competitive results (IS=8.81pm0.10, FID=9.91) on the CIFAR-10 dataset and surpass prior NAS-GANs on the STL-10 dataset (IS=10.44pm0.087, FID=22.18). Source code: https://github.com/marsggbo/EAGAN.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 29, 2021

A Finite Element Method for the Grad--Mercier Equation

We develop and analyse a conforming piecewise affine finite element method for the Grad--Mercier equation, a nonlocal elliptic model for magnetic equilibria whose source depends on the global rank of a flux function. The principal difficulty is that the unique continuum equilibrium has a maximum plateau of prescribed positive area. The solution therefore samples the rank law only above the plateau mass, while perturbations that separate equal values may distribute this mass over several numerical ranks and thereby alter the non-strict rank source. We exploit the continuum well-posedness structure to replace the rank law by an equivalent clipped, nonnegative law, and replace Lebesgue measure by a mass-lumped nodal measure. Equal nodal values are assigned a common rank interval, thereby retaining the full lumped mass of each tied level. The resulting weighted rearrangement gives a strictly convex discrete energy and hence a unique finite element equilibrium. On meshes satisfying a discrete comparison principle, the discrete equilibrium is nonnegative and bounded above by a computable barrier. A Poisson-preconditioned rearrangement iteration converges on each fixed mesh and admits computable a posteriori energy and energy-norm bounds. As polygonal finite element domains converge to the physical cross-section, the discrete equilibria converge strongly in H^1_0(Ω) and uniformly on overlineΩ to the unique Grad--Mercier equilibrium. Reconstructed equilibrium sources converge weak-* in L^{infty}(Ω) to the original nonlocal source.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 3

The Implicit Regularization of Dynamical Stability in Stochastic Gradient Descent

In this paper, we study the implicit regularization of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) through the lens of {\em dynamical stability} (Wu et al., 2018). We start by revising existing stability analyses of SGD, showing how the Frobenius norm and trace of Hessian relate to different notions of stability. Notably, if a global minimum is linearly stable for SGD, then the trace of Hessian must be less than or equal to 2/eta, where eta denotes the learning rate. By contrast, for gradient descent (GD), the stability imposes a similar constraint but only on the largest eigenvalue of Hessian. We then turn to analyze the generalization properties of these stable minima, focusing specifically on two-layer ReLU networks and diagonal linear networks. Notably, we establish the {\em equivalence} between these metrics of sharpness and certain parameter norms for the two models, which allows us to show that the stable minima of SGD provably generalize well. By contrast, the stability-induced regularization of GD is provably too weak to ensure satisfactory generalization. This discrepancy provides an explanation of why SGD often generalizes better than GD. Note that the learning rate (LR) plays a pivotal role in the strength of stability-induced regularization. As the LR increases, the regularization effect becomes more pronounced, elucidating why SGD with a larger LR consistently demonstrates superior generalization capabilities. Additionally, numerical experiments are provided to support our theoretical findings.

  • 2 authors
·
May 27, 2023

GridFormer: Point-Grid Transformer for Surface Reconstruction

Implicit neural networks have emerged as a crucial technology in 3D surface reconstruction. To reconstruct continuous surfaces from discrete point clouds, encoding the input points into regular grid features (plane or volume) has been commonly employed in existing approaches. However, these methods typically use the grid as an index for uniformly scattering point features. Compared with the irregular point features, the regular grid features may sacrifice some reconstruction details but improve efficiency. To take full advantage of these two types of features, we introduce a novel and high-efficiency attention mechanism between the grid and point features named Point-Grid Transformer (GridFormer). This mechanism treats the grid as a transfer point connecting the space and point cloud. Our method maximizes the spatial expressiveness of grid features and maintains computational efficiency. Furthermore, optimizing predictions over the entire space could potentially result in blurred boundaries. To address this issue, we further propose a boundary optimization strategy incorporating margin binary cross-entropy loss and boundary sampling. This approach enables us to achieve a more precise representation of the object structure. Our experiments validate that our method is effective and outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches under widely used benchmarks by producing more precise geometry reconstructions. The code is available at https://github.com/list17/GridFormer.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 4, 2024

Learning H-Infinity Locomotion Control

Stable locomotion in precipitous environments is an essential capability of quadruped robots, demanding the ability to resist various external disturbances. However, recent learning-based policies only use basic domain randomization to improve the robustness of learned policies, which cannot guarantee that the robot has adequate disturbance resistance capabilities. In this paper, we propose to model the learning process as an adversarial interaction between the actor and a newly introduced disturber and ensure their optimization with H_{infty} constraint. In contrast to the actor that maximizes the discounted overall reward, the disturber is responsible for generating effective external forces and is optimized by maximizing the error between the task reward and its oracle, i.e., "cost" in each iteration. To keep joint optimization between the actor and the disturber stable, our H_{infty} constraint mandates the bound of ratio between the cost to the intensity of the external forces. Through reciprocal interaction throughout the training phase, the actor can acquire the capability to navigate increasingly complex physical disturbances. We verify the robustness of our approach on quadrupedal locomotion tasks with Unitree Aliengo robot, and also a more challenging task with Unitree A1 robot, where the quadruped is expected to perform locomotion merely on its hind legs as if it is a bipedal robot. The simulated quantitative results show improvement against baselines, demonstrating the effectiveness of the method and each design choice. On the other hand, real-robot experiments qualitatively exhibit how robust the policy is when interfering with various disturbances on various terrains, including stairs, high platforms, slopes, and slippery terrains. All code, checkpoints, and real-world deployment guidance will be made public.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 22, 2024 1

Steady-Forcing: Balancing Spatial Persistence and Motion Continuity in Long-Horizon Nature Video Diffusion

Autoregressive video diffusion models enable streaming generation but often degrade over long rollouts: static scene layouts drift, while mechanisms that improve spatial stability tend to suppress motion, causing natural flows such as water, fire, or smoke to stagnate. We study this stability-motion trade-off in fixed-camera long-horizon nature video generation, where the two failure modes can be more clearly separated than in moving-camera settings. We propose Steady-Forcing, a memory and training framework combining a persistent visual anchor (V-Sink), an exponential moving-average motion memory (EMA-Sink), block-relative temporal encoding, periodic cache purification, and distillation from a Wan2.1-14B teacher with motion-rewarded priors under task-focused configurations. Together, these components are designed to preserve background identity while sustaining visually plausible fluid dynamics over multi-minute autoregressive rollouts. Evaluations across seven baselines show that Steady-Forcing improves long horizon background consistency and imaging quality, while a blind user study indicates stronger perceived stability and motion continuity. The benchmark evaluation further suggest that generic VBench aggregate scores under-penalize fixed-camera artifacts as well as rewarding drift-induced optical flow as Dynamic Degree while not directly penalizing texture hardening or flow stagnation - motivating future task-specific benchmarks for static-camera nature-flow evaluation. Project page: https://minar09.github.io/steadyforcing/

MegaScale: Scaling Large Language Model Training to More Than 10,000 GPUs

We present the design, implementation and engineering experience in building and deploying MegaScale, a production system for training large language models (LLMs) at the scale of more than 10,000 GPUs. Training LLMs at this scale brings unprecedented challenges to training efficiency and stability. We take a full-stack approach that co-designs the algorithmic and system components across model block and optimizer design, computation and communication overlapping, operator optimization, data pipeline, and network performance tuning. Maintaining high efficiency throughout the training process (i.e., stability) is an important consideration in production given the long extent of LLM training jobs. Many hard stability issues only emerge at large scale, and in-depth observability is the key to address them. We develop a set of diagnosis tools to monitor system components and events deep in the stack, identify root causes, and derive effective techniques to achieve fault tolerance and mitigate stragglers. MegaScale achieves 55.2% Model FLOPs Utilization (MFU) when training a 175B LLM model on 12,288 GPUs, improving the MFU by 1.34x compared to Megatron-LM. We share our operational experience in identifying and fixing failures and stragglers. We hope by articulating the problems and sharing our experience from a systems perspective, this work can inspire future LLM systems research.

  • 32 authors
·
Feb 23, 2024 2

Unsupervised Domain Adaptive Detection with Network Stability Analysis

Domain adaptive detection aims to improve the generality of a detector, learned from the labeled source domain, on the unlabeled target domain. In this work, drawing inspiration from the concept of stability from the control theory that a robust system requires to remain consistent both externally and internally regardless of disturbances, we propose a novel framework that achieves unsupervised domain adaptive detection through stability analysis. In specific, we treat discrepancies between images and regions from different domains as disturbances, and introduce a novel simple but effective Network Stability Analysis (NSA) framework that considers various disturbances for domain adaptation. Particularly, we explore three types of perturbations including heavy and light image-level disturbances and instancelevel disturbance. For each type, NSA performs external consistency analysis on the outputs from raw and perturbed images and/or internal consistency analysis on their features, using teacher-student models. By integrating NSA into Faster R-CNN, we immediately achieve state-of-the-art results. In particular, we set a new record of 52.7% mAP on Cityscapes-to-FoggyCityscapes, showing the potential of NSA for domain adaptive detection. It is worth noticing, our NSA is designed for general purpose, and thus applicable to one-stage detection model (e.g., FCOS) besides the adopted one, as shown by experiments. https://github.com/tiankongzhang/NSA.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 16, 2023

MetricGrids: Arbitrary Nonlinear Approximation with Elementary Metric Grids based Implicit Neural Representation

This paper presents MetricGrids, a novel grid-based neural representation that combines elementary metric grids in various metric spaces to approximate complex nonlinear signals. While grid-based representations are widely adopted for their efficiency and scalability, the existing feature grids with linear indexing for continuous-space points can only provide degenerate linear latent space representations, and such representations cannot be adequately compensated to represent complex nonlinear signals by the following compact decoder. To address this problem while keeping the simplicity of a regular grid structure, our approach builds upon the standard grid-based paradigm by constructing multiple elementary metric grids as high-order terms to approximate complex nonlinearities, following the Taylor expansion principle. Furthermore, we enhance model compactness with hash encoding based on different sparsities of the grids to prevent detrimental hash collisions, and a high-order extrapolation decoder to reduce explicit grid storage requirements. experimental results on both 2D and 3D reconstructions demonstrate the superior fitting and rendering accuracy of the proposed method across diverse signal types, validating its robustness and generalizability. Code is available at https://github.com/wangshu31/MetricGrids}{https://github.com/wangshu31/MetricGrids.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 12, 2025

"I May Not Have Articulated Myself Clearly": Diagnosing Dynamic Instability in LLM Reasoning at Inference Time

Reasoning failures in large language models (LLMs) are typically measured only at the end of a generation, yet many failures manifest as a process-level breakdown: the model "loses the thread" mid-reasoning. We study whether such breakdowns are detectable from inference-time observables available in standard APIs (token log probabilities), without any training or fine-tuning. We define a simple instability signal that combines consecutive-step distributional shift (JSD) and uncertainty (entropy), summarize each trace by its peak instability strength, and show that this signal reliably predicts failure. Across GSM8K and HotpotQA, instability strength predicts wrong answers with above-chance AUC and yields monotonic bucket-level accuracy decline at scale across model sizes. Crucially, we show that instability is not uniformly harmful: early instability can reflect subsequent stabilization and a correct final answer (corrective instability), whereas late instability is more often followed by failure (destructive instability), even at comparable peak magnitudes, indicating that recoverability depends not only on how strongly the distribution changes but also on when such changes occur relative to the remaining decoding horizon. The method is model-agnostic, training-free, and reproducible, and is presented as a diagnostic lens rather than a corrective or control mechanism.

  • 4 authors
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Feb 2 3

Post-Grokking Collapse at the Representation-Readout Interface in Muon-Trained Transformers

Under the standard split, Muon gets hidden matrices and AdamW embeddings/output head. Muon groks modular addition faster, but its solutions do not hold. All nine configurations on (a+b) bmod 113 grok and later lose generalization. Across five seeds the selected AdamW reference falls below threshold on four, reaching 27.59%. Instability persists across two moduli, two widths, two training fractions, subtraction, and depth. The failure arises at the representation-readout interface, identified only jointly up to an invertible map unselected by the loss. After solving the training set, the gradient falls to order 10^{-6} and the optimizers respond differently: step-size elasticity is -0.03 for Muon versus +1.5 for AdamW, and the Muon group moves 8.0 times faster per parameter. From bit-identical states, freezing either group prevents failure. Freezing embeddings/readout removes it in five runs over 451,400 post-grokking steps and five paired seeds: unfrozen arms record 137-321 sub-threshold evaluations, frozen arms none. Removing Muon's normalization and orthogonalization is no substitute: it collapses representation from 326 effective conjugate pairs to 4, shows no recurrent collapse, and fails terminally. Fourier filtering separates circuit failure from masking. Across 43 checkpoints over five seeds and three regimes, the task-aligned family reaches exactly 100% alone. In circuit failure it no longer solves the task; in masking it remains perfect while the full model reaches 45.85%, giving a positive margin on every example, including errors, but being outvoted by a near-equal adversarial remainder. Rescaling it restores 99.9%; grokking is the same condition resolving upward. The task selects the family, swapping (k,k) for (k,-k) under subtraction. Across an abrupt collapse, standard Fourier support is unchanged and the power-distribution cosine remains 0.9899.

  • 4 authors
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Aug 6

Conservation Constraints and Distributed Advective Memory in a Reduced Model of Atlantic Overturning Hysteresis

Interbasin exchange through the Indo-Pacific gateway supplies salt to the Atlantic and is widely invoked as a control on the stability of the Atlantic overturning circulation. We ask whether that control can act on the equilibrium structure of a conceptual thermohaline model. A closed five-box model with an exact salt invariant is constructed, comprising North Atlantic, upper-limb, Indian, Pacific, and deep reservoirs, with the return flow split between a warm route through the Indian reservoir and a cold route, together with an Indonesian Throughflow branch and an Agulhas retroflection. Adding the steady-state budgets of the gateway reservoirs shows that every internal exchange cancels, so the salt they export to the Atlantic is fixed by the net Atlantic freshwater export alone. This holds independently of the warm-route fraction, the throughflow, the retroflection, and how the export is apportioned among gateway reservoirs; across a parameter sweep the largest departure is of order ten to the minus eleven. The gateway therefore enters as a purely additive forcing and cannot renormalize the salt-advection feedback. Replacing the discrete transit lag by a gamma memory kernel leaves the equilibria unchanged but yields a closed-form threshold for oscillatory instability depending only on kernel shape. Broad memory is strongly stabilizing, and a discrete lag is the least stable member of the family. Because the instantaneous feedback vanishes at the fold, oscillatory instability always precedes the saddle-node, over an interval widening more than tenfold as memory sharpens. Gateways therefore appear to act on transient rather than equilibrium dynamics

  • 6 authors
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Sep 20

Do RUL explanations hold up? Faithfulness and stability of attributions on C-MAPSS

Deep remaining-useful-life (RUL) models on NASA C-MAPSS are now routine, and so are heatmaps that colour sensors and timesteps. A heatmap that looks mechanical is not the same as an explanation an engineer can act on. We train three standard architectures - a 1D CNN, an LSTM, and a small Transformer encoder - on the official FD001 and FD003 splits with the piecewise RUL cap of 125 cycles and the official PHM08 asymmetric score. We then attach three attribution maps (Integrated Gradients, occlusion, last-layer attention) and evaluate them with the checks the XAI-for-PdM literature still under-reports: deletion/insertion faithfulness, Spearman stability under sensor-scale noise, agreement across training seeds, and cosine consistency inside RUL bins. Prediction error is a prerequisite, not the claim. The headline is which explanation method moves the RUL output when its top cells are removed, and which map survives a 5% input perturbation. Integrated Gradients and occlusion are similarly faithful on the LSTM; Transformer attention is cheap and temporally smooth but weakly faithful. All three maps are almost unchanged under 5% input noise, yet IG/occlusion agree only moderately across two LSTM seeds - stability to sensor jitter is not the same as stability to retraining. A secondary tabular check on the AI4I 2020 failure dataset shows the same deletion pattern for tree importances. We recommend occlusion or IG for any C-MAPSS-style report that will be read by a maintenance engineer, and we treat raw attention weights as a visualisation only.

  • 8 authors
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Oct 2

Unstable Features, Reproducible Subspaces: Understanding Seed Dependence in Sparse Autoencoders

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are widely used to interpret neural network representations, but their utility depends on whether the learned features are reproducible across training runs. We study this question through feature stability: for each SAE feature, we estimate the probability that a similar feature reappears in an independently trained SAE. This yields a scalable per-feature signal that separates stable from unstable features. In a large-scale study across seeds, models, layers, dictionary sizes, and SAE variants, we find a pronounced functional asymmetry: stable features carry most of the reconstruction- and prediction-relevant signal, while unstable features have weak marginal impact and are dominated by low-frequency surface-form triggers in both activation statistics and automatic explanations. Geometrically, unstable features are individually non-reproducible but concentrate in reproducible lower-rank subspaces, suggesting that seed dependence often reflects basis ambiguity within a shared region of activation space rather than pure noise. A controlled synthetic model makes this mechanism explicit, showing that low-rank ground-truth features can be recovered at the subspace level while remaining non-identifiable as individual SAE latents across seeds. Finally, by pooling unique cross-seed features, we construct more stable SAEs while preserving explained variance in this setting. Together, these results show that unstable features are not merely failed or noisy latents: they have weak individual functional impact, but reflect reproducible low-dimensional structure that standard SAEs resolve differently across seeds.

t-tech T-Tech
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Jun 9 2

Improving Long-Range Interactions in Graph Neural Simulators via Hamiltonian Dynamics

Learning to simulate complex physical systems from data has emerged as a promising way to overcome the limitations of traditional numerical solvers, which often require prohibitive computational costs for high-fidelity solutions. Recent Graph Neural Simulators (GNSs) accelerate simulations by learning dynamics on graph-structured data, yet often struggle to capture long-range interactions and suffer from error accumulation under autoregressive rollouts. To address these challenges, we propose Information-preserving Graph Neural Simulators (IGNS), a graph-based neural simulator built on the principles of Hamiltonian dynamics. This structure guarantees preservation of information across the graph, while extending to port-Hamiltonian systems allows the model to capture a broader class of dynamics, including non-conservative effects. IGNS further incorporates a warmup phase to initialize global context, geometric encoding to handle irregular meshes, and a multi-step training objective that facilitates PDE matching, where the trajectory produced by integrating the port-Hamiltonian core aligns with the ground-truth trajectory, thereby reducing rollout error. To evaluate these properties systematically, we introduce new benchmarks that target long-range dependencies and challenging external forcing scenarios. Across all tasks, IGNS consistently outperforms state-of-the-art GNSs, achieving higher accuracy and stability under challenging and complex dynamical systems. Our project page: https://thobotics.github.io/neural_pde_matching.

  • 7 authors
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Nov 11, 2025

FISC: A Fluid-Inspired Framework for Decentralized and Scalable Swarm Control

Achieving scalable coordination in large robotic swarms is often constrained by reliance on inter-agent communication, which introduces latency, bandwidth limitations, and vulnerability to failure. To address this gap, a decentralized approach for outer-loop control of large multi-agent systems based on the paradigm of how a fluid moves through a volume is proposed and evaluated. A relationship between fundamental fluidic element properties and individual robotic agent states is developed such that the corresponding swarm "flows" through a space, akin to a fluid when forced via a pressure boundary condition. By ascribing fluid-like properties to subsets of agents, the swarm evolves collectively while maintaining desirable structure and coherence without explicit communication of agent states within or outside of the swarm. The approach is evaluated using simulations involving O(10^3) quadcopter agents and compared against Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solutions for a converging-diverging domain. Quantitative agreement between swarm-derived and CFD fields is assessed using Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE), yielding normalized errors of 0.15-0.9 for velocity, 0.61-0.98 for density, 0-0.937 for pressure. These results demonstrate the feasibility of treating large robotic swarms as continuum systems that retain the macroscopic structure derived from first principles, providing a basis for scalable and decentralized control.

  • 3 authors
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Jan 30

Conflict-Predictive Variable Horizons in Multi-Drone Distributed Model Predictive Control

In distributed model predictive control for multi-drone collision avoidance, a fixed prediction horizon forces a compromise: a short horizon is inexpensive but reacts late to approaching neighbors, whereas a long one anticipates conflicts at a per-step cost that grows superlinearly with its length. We propose a conflict-predictive variable horizon that each drone sets locally, leaving the distributed model predictive control itself unchanged. From a short history of observed positions, a drone extrapolates the flight lines of its neighbors, tests each against its own using confidence funnels that narrow with prediction range, and obtains each time to conflict in closed form. The horizon is then the smallest admissible value whose planning window covers the farthest predicted conflict. It collapses to its minimum in clear airspace and grows only when a conflict lies ahead. Provided this minimum meets a single computable feasibility bound, we prove that recursive feasibility and asymptotic stability are preserved for every horizon the policy can select. These guarantees hold for a linear model, and a cascaded inner loop reduces each quadrotor's translational dynamics to a perturbed double integrator, so they carry over to the linearized quadrotor model and, as practical stability, to the full nonlinear one. In simulation on dense antipodal-swap benchmarks, the variable horizon reduces both per-step solver cost and total computation well below those of a long fixed horizon, and it maintains separation in every run, which a short fixed horizon of comparable per-step cost does not.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 6

OneForecast: A Universal Framework for Global and Regional Weather Forecasting

Accurate weather forecasts are important for disaster prevention, agricultural planning, etc. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods offer physically interpretable high-accuracy predictions but are computationally expensive and fail to fully leverage rapidly growing historical data. In recent years, deep learning models have made significant progress in weather forecasting, but challenges remain, such as balancing global and regional high-resolution forecasts, excessive smoothing in extreme event predictions, and insufficient dynamic system modeling. To address these issues, this paper proposes a global-regional nested weather forecasting framework (OneForecast) based on graph neural networks. By combining a dynamic system perspective with multi-grid theory, we construct a multi-scale graph structure and densify the target region to capture local high-frequency features. We introduce an adaptive messaging mechanism, using dynamic gating units to deeply integrate node and edge features for more accurate extreme event forecasting. For high-resolution regional forecasts, we propose a neural nested grid method to mitigate boundary information loss. Experimental results show that OneForecast performs excellently across global to regional scales and short-term to long-term forecasts, especially in extreme event predictions. Codes link https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/OneForecast.

  • 14 authors
·
Feb 1, 2025

From Orbit to Ground: Generative City Photogrammetry from Extreme Off-Nadir Satellite Images

City-scale 3D reconstruction from satellite imagery presents the challenge of extreme viewpoint extrapolation, where our goal is to synthesize ground-level novel views from sparse orbital images with minimal parallax. This requires inferring nearly 90^circ viewpoint gaps from image sources with severely foreshortened facades and flawed textures, causing state-of-the-art reconstruction engines such as NeRF and 3DGS to fail. To address this problem, we propose two design choices tailored for city structures and satellite inputs. First, we model city geometry as a 2.5D height map, implemented as a Z-monotonic signed distance field (SDF) that matches urban building layouts from top-down viewpoints. This stabilizes geometry optimization under sparse, off-nadir satellite views and yields a watertight mesh with crisp roofs and clean, vertically extruded facades. Second, we paint the mesh appearance from satellite images via differentiable rendering techniques. While the satellite inputs may contain long-range, blurry captures, we further train a generative texture restoration network to enhance the appearance, recovering high-frequency, plausible texture details from degraded inputs. Our method's scalability and robustness are demonstrated through extensive experiments on large-scale urban reconstruction. For example, in our teaser figure, we reconstruct a 4,km^2 real-world region from only a few satellite images, achieving state-of-the-art performance in synthesizing photorealistic ground views. The resulting models are not only visually compelling but also serve as high-fidelity, application-ready assets for downstream tasks like urban planning and simulation. Project page can be found at https://pku-vcl-geometry.github.io/Orbit2Ground/.

  • 13 authors
·
Dec 8, 2025

On the Stability of Expressive Positional Encodings for Graph Neural Networks

Designing effective positional encodings for graphs is key to building powerful graph transformers and enhancing message-passing graph neural networks. Although widespread, using Laplacian eigenvectors as positional encodings faces two fundamental challenges: (1) Non-uniqueness: there are many different eigendecompositions of the same Laplacian, and (2) Instability: small perturbations to the Laplacian could result in completely different eigenspaces, leading to unpredictable changes in positional encoding. Despite many attempts to address non-uniqueness, most methods overlook stability, leading to poor generalization on unseen graph structures. We identify the cause of instability to be a "hard partition" of eigenspaces. Hence, we introduce Stable and Expressive Positional Encodings (SPE), an architecture for processing eigenvectors that uses eigenvalues to "softly partition" eigenspaces. SPE is the first architecture that is (1) provably stable, and (2) universally expressive for basis invariant functions whilst respecting all symmetries of eigenvectors. Besides guaranteed stability, we prove that SPE is at least as expressive as existing methods, and highly capable of counting graph structures. Finally, we evaluate the effectiveness of our method on molecular property prediction, and out-of-distribution generalization tasks, finding improved generalization compared to existing positional encoding methods.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 4, 2023

DRIFT-Net: A Spectral--Coupled Neural Operator for PDEs Learning

Learning PDE dynamics with neural solvers can significantly improve wall-clock efficiency and accuracy compared with classical numerical solvers. In recent years, foundation models for PDEs have largely adopted multi-scale windowed self-attention, with the scOT backbone in Poseidon serving as a representative example. However, because of their locality, truly globally consistent spectral coupling can only be propagated gradually through deep stacking and window shifting. This weakens global coupling and leads to error accumulation and drift during closed-loop rollouts. To address this, we propose DRIFT-Net. It employs a dual-branch design comprising a spectral branch and an image branch. The spectral branch is responsible for capturing global, large-scale low-frequency information, whereas the image branch focuses on local details and nonstationary structures. Specifically, we first perform controlled, lightweight mixing within the low-frequency range. Then we fuse the spectral and image paths at each layer via bandwise weighting, which avoids the width inflation and training instability caused by naive concatenation. The fused result is transformed back into the spatial domain and added to the image branch, thereby preserving both global structure and high-frequency details across scales. Compared with strong attention-based baselines, DRIFT-Net achieves lower error and higher throughput with fewer parameters under identical training settings and budget. On Navier--Stokes benchmarks, the relative L_{1} error is reduced by 7\%--54\%, the parameter count decreases by about 15\%, and the throughput remains higher than scOT. Ablation studies and theoretical analyses further demonstrate the stability and effectiveness of this design. The code is available at https://github.com/cruiseresearchgroup/DRIFT-Net.

Dynamics around non-spherical symmetric bodies - III. The case of a spherical body with a crater

Motivated by the peculiar features of the trans-Neptunian object (TNO) Máni and the discovery of ring systems around Centaurs and trans-Neptunian bodies, we investigate the stability of particles around a small irregular body hosting a deep equatorial crater. This study is the third contribution in a sequence devoted to the dynamics around non-spherically symmetric bodies. Using Máni as a reference model, whose crater depth exceeds 10% of its radius, we map the system stability through complementary methods: Poincaré surfaces of section (PSS), survival maps, and the finite-time Lyapunov exponent (FTLE). In the nominal case, the 1!:!1, 2!:!1, 3!:!1, and 4!:!1 spin-orbit resonances (SORs) are consistently identified by all techniques. The prominent 3!:!1 SOR exhibits a bifurcated structure at high eccentricities, matching structural transitions observed at lower Jacobi constant values in the PSSs. Increasing the rotation rate (λ) and crater mass ratio (μ) enlarges resonance widths and promotes overlap, making the 2!:!1 and 4!:!1 SORs progressively dominant. Lower rotation rates allow stable trajectories to persist at higher eccentricities, whereas the 1!:!1 SOR is highly sensitive to stronger perturbations and disappears in the most extreme cases. In contrast to mass-anomaly models, which can clear the region interior to the 2!:!1 SOR, the crater configuration considered here preserves stable regions in this vicinity, suggesting alternative scenarios for the formation and maintenance of debris structures around irregular minor bodies.

  • 5 authors
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Oct 4

Particle-Grid Neural Dynamics for Learning Deformable Object Models from RGB-D Videos

Modeling the dynamics of deformable objects is challenging due to their diverse physical properties and the difficulty of estimating states from limited visual information. We address these challenges with a neural dynamics framework that combines object particles and spatial grids in a hybrid representation. Our particle-grid model captures global shape and motion information while predicting dense particle movements, enabling the modeling of objects with varied shapes and materials. Particles represent object shapes, while the spatial grid discretizes the 3D space to ensure spatial continuity and enhance learning efficiency. Coupled with Gaussian Splattings for visual rendering, our framework achieves a fully learning-based digital twin of deformable objects and generates 3D action-conditioned videos. Through experiments, we demonstrate that our model learns the dynamics of diverse objects -- such as ropes, cloths, stuffed animals, and paper bags -- from sparse-view RGB-D recordings of robot-object interactions, while also generalizing at the category level to unseen instances. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art learning-based and physics-based simulators, particularly in scenarios with limited camera views. Furthermore, we showcase the utility of our learned models in model-based planning, enabling goal-conditioned object manipulation across a range of tasks. The project page is available at https://kywind.github.io/pgnd .

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 18, 2025

Continual evaluation for lifelong learning: Identifying the stability gap

Time-dependent data-generating distributions have proven to be difficult for gradient-based training of neural networks, as the greedy updates result in catastrophic forgetting of previously learned knowledge. Despite the progress in the field of continual learning to overcome this forgetting, we show that a set of common state-of-the-art methods still suffers from substantial forgetting upon starting to learn new tasks, except that this forgetting is temporary and followed by a phase of performance recovery. We refer to this intriguing but potentially problematic phenomenon as the stability gap. The stability gap had likely remained under the radar due to standard practice in the field of evaluating continual learning models only after each task. Instead, we establish a framework for continual evaluation that uses per-iteration evaluation and we define a new set of metrics to quantify worst-case performance. Empirically we show that experience replay, constraint-based replay, knowledge-distillation, and parameter regularization methods are all prone to the stability gap; and that the stability gap can be observed in class-, task-, and domain-incremental learning benchmarks. Additionally, a controlled experiment shows that the stability gap increases when tasks are more dissimilar. Finally, by disentangling gradients into plasticity and stability components, we propose a conceptual explanation for the stability gap.

  • 3 authors
·
May 26, 2022

Predicting Inference-Time Scaling Gains from Labeled Validation-Set Output Statistics

Best-of-N inference scaling (drawing N candidate answers from a language model and returning the one a reward model ranks highest) improves accuracy by an amount that varies across models, but predicting that amount in advance currently requires running the procedure end-to-end. Prior work links cheap statistics of a model's sampled outputs and validation-set correctness (how often samples agree, how diverse they are, how confident the model is, and where correct samples appear) to model behavior, but does not isolate which of these form a stable, compact predictor of best-of-N gain. We fit ridge predictors on features computed from a single labeled validation-set sampling pass, use bootstrap-Lasso as a stability analysis of the candidate feature set, and give a concentration analysis with an explicit linear-approximation residual. Across three base-model families, six post-training methods, and math and reasoning task domains, the stability analysis identifies a strict three-feature core spanning prompt-level agreement spread, label-assisted first-correct-sample position, and completion-length variance; a compact ridge predictor built from this core plus an entropy add-on reaches Spearman ρ= 0.90 with actual best-of-N gain under a reward-model verifier. The intended use is labeled validation-set screening of candidate configurations before paying the full reward-model scoring cost.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 1

Stress-Testing the Reasoning Competence of LLMs With Proofs Under Minimal Formalism

We introduce ProofGrid, a benchmark suite for evaluating LLM reasoning through machine-checkable proofs rather than final answers alone. ProofGrid contains 15 tasks spanning proof writing, proof checking, proof masking, and proof gap-filling. Tasks are expressed in minimal formal notation, especially NDL, a compact natural-deduction language that fits in short prompts and supports precise, auditable verification. This yields mechanical, reproducible, and fine-grained evaluation rather than judgments by humans or LLMs. ProofGrid covers a calibrated difficulty spectrum, from foundational reasoning tests to structurally rich challenge tasks that no current model solves, while minimizing reliance on domain knowledge, solver delegation, and long-context artifacts. We also develop a comparative framework for reasoning benchmarks and use it to situate ProofGrid relative to existing work in terms of representation, verification guarantees, and reasoning depth. Methodologically, we introduce an instrumented proof-checking pipeline that tolerates minor surface deviations while locating the first substantive reasoning failure, improving measurement resolution and separating proof planning from low-level execution noise. Using this pipeline, we evaluate a broad range of open and proprietary models. Results show rapid progress but substantial remaining limits: frontier models perform well on several foundational tasks, yet difficult tasks, especially those requiring global combinatorial reasoning or low-level proof synthesis, remain far from solved. We also identify epistemic instability, where models generate flawed proofs yet correctly reject those local inferences in isolation, and formalize this with an Epistemic Stability Index. Finally, we complement accuracy with 2PL IRT analyses, Wright maps, and a normalized task-discrimination measure based on Fisher information.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 6 2

A Cumulative Framework for Solid Deformation

A cumulative variational framework for solid deformation is proposed. Its central organizing principle is the recursive combination of three structural components of one material body: a compatible Cosserat component, a distributed-incompatibility component, and a defect-source component. At any prescribed external condition these components constitute a combined material state. They are governed under common physical boundary and initial conditions and are coupled through one cumulative energy and the associated field equations. They are not separate boundary-value problems and need not appear in a prescribed temporal sequence. The cumulative character of the framework concerns the response of the combined state to variation of externally prescribed conditions. For the special case of an initially perfect body, loss of stability may produce successive branches with defect and then source participation. Such a sequence is a bifurcation property of the selected initial state and constitutive energy, rather than a defining hierarchy of the framework. A one-dimensional specialization illustrates structural bifurcation, residual deformation and residual stress produced by retained structure, dependence on the initial combined state, directional memory under reverse loading, parametric cumulative hysteresis, and changes of observable tangent stiffness associated with structural stabilization. A spatial extension introduces defect and source gradient terms and yields a size-dependent structural stability operator. For the stable quartic energy considered, the gradient terms regularize nonuniform perturbations but do not by themselves generate a finite-wavelength localization instability on an already stable three-component branch. The examples thereby distinguish consequences of the cumulative structure and energy from phenomena requiring additional constitutive evolution laws.

  • 1 authors
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Sep 16