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Nov 12

ID Balancing: Stable Training of Extremely Sparse MoE via PID-Based Load Control

Scaling Large Language Models (LLMs) via Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) enables massive parameter growth with nearly constant per-token computation. However, further scaling the parameter count requires increasingly sparse routing, where expert load imbalance becomes more severe. This imbalance reduces parameter utilization and training efficiency, and can undermine training stability, becoming a bottleneck to reliable scaling. In this work, we unify two representative auxiliary-loss-free methods as incomplete Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controllers: DeepSeek's loss-free method acts as a fixed-step integral controller, while Kimi K3's Quantile Balancing functions as a generalized proportional controller. Building on this control perspective, we propose ID Balancing, an Integral-Derivative controller. It scales its integral term with load error and activates its derivative term only when imbalance worsens, enabling stronger corrections for large or worsening errors and smaller updates near balance. Evaluated across Top-10, Top-5, and Top-3 routing over 768 experts, ID Balancing reduces worst-case backbone MaxVio and training-average backbone MinVio by over 50% and 12%, respectively, relative to the best baselines in the Top-3 setting. When the total parameter count increases from 18.9B to 69.9B (Top-10-of-768), ID Balancing's worst-case backbone MaxVio remains nearly unchanged and is approximately 89.6% lower than that of the auxiliary-loss baseline. ID Balancing also maintains competitive language-modeling and downstream performance. The advantages of ID Balancing grow as sparsity increases, making it a promising solution for scaling larger, sparser MoE models.

  • 11 authors
·
Sep 30

Relax Within, Balance Across: Geometry-Guided Load Balancing for Vision-Language Mixture-of-Experts

Vision-language MoE batches contain different numbers of image and text tokens. Image resolution, image count, tiling, and prompt length all change this token mix. We call the standard token-level Switch auxiliary loss Std-Aux. Std-Aux balances only the mixed load, so large image and text load errors can cancel at one mix. On our main model, the same trained router shows more than a fivefold change in load imbalance across image resolutions. We hold the image and text load profiles fixed and derive the exact load curve as the token mix varies. The image-text load gap controls sensitivity to the token mix. Physical preprocessing can also change the conditional profiles. The fixed-profile law excludes such changes. To design a remedy, we examine the router input structure. Image and text occupy distinct regions, while visual tokens group strongly by source image. The modality boundary motivates separate image and text terms. The image boundary motivates one equal-weight routing instance per image. ReBA, or Relax Within, Balance Across, implements both choices. Across four split backbones, ReBA lowers load on every reported benchmark input while keeping mean task accuracy comparable to Std-Aux. ReBA also lowers average load over the tested range and worst physical load under resolution and tiling shifts. Code is available at https://github.com/ZiangWu-77/ReBA.

Load Testing for Machine Learning Model Serving Systems at Scale

Machine learning (ML) model serving has become a dominant consumer of GPU infrastructure, yet capacity planning in these systems remains largely ad hoc. Under-provisioning leads to service-level objective (SLO) violations and production incidents, while over-provisioning results in substantial resource waste. This paper presents \sys, an industrial load testing framework for ML serving systems that systematically estimates serving capacity through an adaptive, feedback-driven search strategy. The approach leverages real-time performance signals, incorporating dampening, spike tolerance, and convergence detection to efficiently identify maximum sustainable throughput under SLO constraints. We evaluate \sys through a longitudinal analysis of 14 industrial case studies spanning four ML architecture classes: recommendation, ranking, vision, and NLP. This study demonstrates that systematic load testing leads to substantial improvements in GPU resource efficiency and operational reliability. Prior to adopting \sys, a significant fraction of model launches were under-provisioned, resulting in recurring incidents; these issues were substantially reduced after deployment. Our results show that ML-specific design decisions are critical to accurate capacity estimation: workload calibration using recorded traffic reduces estimation error from approximately 30\% to 2--6\%, while proper warmup handling yields a 22.2\% improvement in accuracy. Further analysis reveals key factors influencing prediction error, including model size and co-location effects. This paper distills six lessons and derive architectural guidelines for ML load testing, offering actionable insights for building reliable and efficient ML serving systems.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 19

IISE PG&E Energy Analytics Challenge 2025: Hourly-Binned Regression Models Beat Transformers in Load Forecasting

Accurate electricity load forecasting is essential for grid stability, resource optimization, and renewable energy integration. While transformer-based deep learning models like TimeGPT have gained traction in time-series forecasting, their effectiveness in long-term electricity load prediction remains uncertain. This study evaluates forecasting models ranging from classical regression techniques to advanced deep learning architectures using data from the ESD 2025 competition. The dataset includes two years of historical electricity load data, alongside temperature and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) across five sites, with a one-day-ahead forecasting horizon. Since actual test set load values remain undisclosed, leveraging predicted values would accumulate errors, making this a long-term forecasting challenge. We employ (i) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction and (ii) frame the task as a regression problem, using temperature and GHI as covariates to predict load for each hour, (iii) ultimately stacking 24 models to generate yearly forecasts. Our results reveal that deep learning models, including TimeGPT, fail to consistently outperform simpler statistical and machine learning approaches due to the limited availability of training data and exogenous variables. In contrast, XGBoost, with minimal feature engineering, delivers the lowest error rates across all test cases while maintaining computational efficiency. This highlights the limitations of deep learning in long-term electricity forecasting and reinforces the importance of model selection based on dataset characteristics rather than complexity. Our study provides insights into practical forecasting applications and contributes to the ongoing discussion on the trade-offs between traditional and modern forecasting methods.

  • 3 authors
·
May 16, 2025

Favicon Trojans: Executable Steganography Via Ico Alpha Channel Exploitation

This paper presents a novel method of executable steganography using the alpha transparency layer of ICO image files to embed and deliver self-decompressing JavaScript payloads within web browsers. By targeting the least significant bit (LSB) of non-transparent alpha layer image values, the proposed method successfully conceals compressed JavaScript code inside a favicon image without affecting visual fidelity. Global web traffic loads 294 billion favicons daily and consume 0.9 petabytes of network bandwidth. A proof-of-concept implementation demonstrates that a 64x64 ICO image can embed up to 512 bytes uncompressed, or 0.8 kilobyte when using lightweight two-fold compression. On page load, a browser fetches the favicon as part of standard behavior, allowing an embedded loader script to extract and execute the payload entirely in memory using native JavaScript APIs and canvas pixel access. This creates a two-stage covert channel requiring no additional network or user requests. Testing across multiple browsers in both desktop and mobile environments confirms successful and silent execution of the embedded script. We evaluate the threat model, relate it to polymorphic phishing attacks that evade favicon-based detection, and analyze evasion of content security policies and antivirus scanners. We map nine example MITRE ATT&CK Framework objectives to single line JavaScript to execute arbitrarily in ICO files. Existing steganalysis and sanitization defenses are discussed, highlighting limitations in detecting or neutralizing alpha-channel exploits. The results demonstrate a stealthy and reusable attack surface that blurs traditional boundaries between static images and executable content. Because modern browsers report silent errors when developers specifically fail to load ICO files, this attack surface offers an interesting example of required web behaviors that in turn compromise security.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 11, 2025 5

PDE-constrained optimization for virtual sensing in structural dynamics: Full-field displacement and force recovery from sparse sensors

Virtual sensing -- recovering full-field structural response from sparse sensor measurements -- is a fundamental challenge in structural health monitoring (SHM). Fracture assessment, fatigue evaluation and remaining useful life (RUL) prognosis all take the applied load as their input, and that load frequently acts on surfaces that cannot be instrumented. An improved load estimate is therefore of direct practical value for SHM and for prognostics and health management (PHM). The mode-based approach reconstructs the displacement field accurately from a small number of sensors and has been applied successfully for that purpose. The load inferred from this reconstructed displacement is far less reliable, because the residual displacement error is amplified when it is mapped back through the dynamic stiffness. This study therefore formulates virtual sensing as a PDE-constrained optimization (PDE-CO) problem in which the elastodynamic equation is an equality constraint and the applied load is the optimization variable, so that displacement and load are estimated together rather than in sequence. To manage the computational cost, the framework separates offline finite element model preparation from online reconstruction. The assembled matrices are reused during online optimization, and the forward and gradient evaluations can use GPU-based parallel computation. The numerical comparisons support improved noise robustness of PDE-CO displacement reconstruction relative to the mode-based approach within the tested settings. These results provide a theoretical and computational foundation for the development of virtual sensing for SHM and PHM.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 7

How to Correctly Make Mistakes: A Framework for Constructing and Benchmarking Mistake Aware Egocentric Procedural Videos

Reliable procedural monitoring in video requires exposure to naturally occurring human errors and the recoveries that follow. In egocentric recordings, mistakes are often partially occluded by hands and revealed through subtle object state changes, while existing procedural datasets provide limited and inconsistent mistake and correction traces. We present PIE-V (Psychologically Inspired Error injection for Videos), a framework for constructing and benchmarking mistake-aware egocentric procedural videos by augmenting clean keystep procedures with controlled, human-plausible deviations. PIE-V combines a psychology-informed error planner conditioned on procedure phase and semantic step load, a correction planner that models recovery behavior, an LLM writer that performs cascade-consistent rewrites, and an LLM judge that validates procedural coherence and repairs failures. For video segment edits, PIE-V synthesizes replacement clips with text-guided video generation and stitches them into the episode to preserve visual plausibility. Applied to 17 tasks and 50 Ego-Exo4D scenarios, PIE-V injects 102 mistakes and generates 27 recovery corrections. For benchmarking, we introduce a unified taxonomy and a human rubric with nine metrics that cover step-level and procedure-level quality, including plausibility, procedure logic with annotator confidence, state change coherence, and grounding between text and video. Using this protocol, we audit several existing resources and compare PIE-V against a freeform LLM generation baseline under the same criteria. Together, the framework and rubric support post-completion verification for egocentric procedural mistake detection and correction.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 15

WattGPU: Predicting Inference Power and Latency on Unseen GPUs and LLMs

Large Language Model (LLM) inference workloads are a rapidly growing contributor to data center energy consumption. Optimizing these deployments requires matching specific LLMs to the most efficient GPUs, but operators currently lack the tools to do so without exhaustively profiling each combination. While some predictive models exist, they still require profiling data and struggle to generalize to hardware unseen during training. To address this, we introduce WattGPU, featuring two predictive models for mean GPU power draw and Inter-Token Latency (ITL). Our approach leverages only publicly available LLM metadata and GPU specifications, eliminating the need for hardware access or profiling while enabling generalization to unseen NVIDIA server-grade GPUs and LLMs. We evaluate our models using rigorous leave-one-GPU-out and leave-one-LLM-out cross-validation on a dataset of 42 open-source LLMs (0.1B--27B parameters) and 8 GPUs under both offline and server scenarios. The mean power draw model achieves a median absolute percentage error of leq3.4% for offline and leq13.5% for server scenarios on unseen GPUs, while the latency model achieves leq8.5% in server mode, both maintaining strong GPU ranking correlations for server scenarios (Kendall τgeq0.76). Compared to standard physically grounded baselines -- Load-Scaled Thermal Design Power (TDP) for power draw and roofline for latency -- our models reduce median absolute percentage error by approximately 4times on unseen LLM-GPU combinations for server scenarios or approximately 2times for completely unseen GPUs. WattGPU's data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/maufadel/wattgpu.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 1

RULSurv: A probabilistic survival-based method for early censoring-aware prediction of remaining useful life in ball bearings

Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of ball bearings is an active area of research, where novel machine learning techniques are continuously being applied to predict degradation trends and anticipate failures before they occur. However, few studies have explicitly addressed the challenge of handling censored data, where information about a specific event (\eg mechanical failure) is incomplete or only partially observed. To address this issue, we introduce a novel and flexible method for early fault detection using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and RUL estimation using survival analysis that naturally supports censored data. We demonstrate our approach in the XJTU-SY dataset using a 5-fold cross-validation strategy across three different operating conditions. When predicting the time to failure for bearings under the highest load (C1, 12.0 kN and 2100 RPM) with 25% random censoring, our approach achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 14.7 minutes (95% CI = 13.6-15.8) using a linear CoxPH model, and an MAE of 12.6 minutes (95% CI = 11.8-13.4) using a nonlinear Random Survival Forests model, compared to an MAE of 18.5 minutes (95% CI = 17.4-19.6) using a linear LASSO model that does not support censoring. Moreover, our approach achieves a mean cumulative relative accuracy (CRA) of 0.7586 over 5 bearings under the highest load, which improves over several state-of-the-art baselines. Our work highlights the importance of considering censored data as part of the model design when building predictive models for early fault detection and RUL estimation.

  • 5 authors
·
May 2, 2024

iSurgARy: A mobile augmented reality solution for ventriculostomy in resource-limited settings

Global disparities in neurosurgical care necessitate innovations addressing affordability and accuracy, particularly for critical procedures like ventriculostomy. This intervention, vital for managing life-threatening intracranial pressure increases, is associated with catheter misplacement rates exceeding 30% when using a freehand technique. Such misplacements hold severe consequences including haemorrhage, infection, prolonged hospital stays, and even morbidity and mortality. To address this issue, we present a novel, stand-alone mobile-based augmented reality system (iSurgARy) aimed at significantly improving ventriculostomy accuracy, particularly in resource-limited settings such as those in low- and middle-income countries. iSurgARy uses landmark based registration by taking advantage of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDaR) to allow for accurate surgical guidance. To evaluate iSurgARy, we conducted a two-phase user study. Initially, we assessed usability and learnability with novice participants using the System Usability Scale (SUS), incorporating their feedback to refine the application. In the second phase, we engaged human-computer interaction (HCI) and clinical domain experts to evaluate our application, measuring Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), System Usability Scale (SUS) and NASA Task Load Index (TLX) metrics to assess accuracy usability, and cognitive workload, respectively

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 12, 2024

EnergyBench: a live, gate-aligned benchmark of day-ahead forecasts for European power markets

Energy forecasting models are usually compared on backtests and fixed public datasets. Backtests can use data that did not yet exist when the forecast would have been made, and a fixed test set, reused across studies and possibly contained in the pretraining data of foundation models, invites overfitting to the benchmark. EnergyBench evaluates every entry live instead. Each day at 11:30 CET/CEST, thirty minutes before the day-ahead (SDAC) gate closes, every model forecasts the next day's price, wind and solar generation and load on the 15-minute grid for six bidding zones (BE, NL, FR, DE-LU, DK1, DK2). Unlike existing live benchmarks, EnergyBench runs the models itself, on one information set that it freezes at the cut-off and publishes, including three numerical weather prediction models, so that foundation models can be compared with and without the same weather covariates under the actual market deadline. Errors are pooled per series against a seasonal-naive baseline, and models are ranked by a Bradley-Terry rating on the Elo scale with a day-bootstrap interval. The field spans baselines, linear and gradient-boosted models on the frozen weather, eighteen time-series foundation models from eleven families, ensembles, and the grid operators' own forecasts. Over the first thirty-two live days, the covariates reduced the error of each of the ten foundation models run with and without them by 37-51% on matched races (64-73% on wind, 48-61% on solar). Used zero-shot, these models match or outperform a LightGBM model trained on the same covariates. Model size, from 3M to 331M parameters, has a much smaller effect, and median ensembles of the covariate models rank highest. The grid operators' pre-gate forecasts remain ahead on wind and solar, where the best single foundation models have 16-22% more error; on load the gap is 4-6%, within the intervals.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 5 1

AgentMath: Empowering Mathematical Reasoning for Large Language Models via Tool-Augmented Agent

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) like o3 and DeepSeek-R1 have achieved remarkable progress in natural language reasoning with long chain-of-thought. However, they remain computationally inefficient and struggle with accuracy when solving problems requiring complex mathematical operations. In this work, we present AgentMath, an agent framework that seamlessly integrates language models' reasoning capabilities with code interpreters' computational precision to efficiently tackle complex mathematical problems. Our approach introduces three key innovations: (1) An automated method that converts natural language chain-of-thought into structured tool-augmented trajectories, generating high-quality supervised fine-tuning (SFT) data to alleviate data scarcity; (2) A novel agentic reinforcement learning (RL) paradigm that dynamically interleaves natural language generation with real-time code execution. This enables models to autonomously learn optimal tool-use strategies through multi-round interactive feedback, while fostering emergent capabilities in code refinement and error correction; (3) An efficient training system incorporating innovative techniques, including request-level asynchronous rollout scheduling, agentic partial rollout, and prefix-aware weighted load balancing, achieving 4-5x speedup and making efficient RL training feasible on ultra-long sequences with scenarios with massive tool invocation. The evaluations show that AgentMath achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging mathematical competition benchmarks including AIME24, AIME25, and HMMT25. Specifically, AgentMath-30B-A3B attains 90.6%, 86.4%, and 73.8% accuracy respectively, achieving advanced performance. The results validate the effectiveness of our approach and pave the way for building more sophisticated and scalable mathematical reasoning agents.

  • 10 authors
·
Dec 23, 2025

CORRECT: COndensed eRror RECognition via knowledge Transfer in multi-agent systems

Multi-agent systems (MAS) are increasingly capable of tackling complex real-world tasks, yet their reliance on inter-agent coordination, tool use, and long-horizon reasoning makes error recognition particularly challenging. Minor errors can propagate across agents, escalating into task failures while producing long, intertwined execution trajectories that impose significant costs for both human developers and automated systems to debug and analyze. Our key insight is that, despite surface differences in failure trajectories (e.g., logs), MAS errors often recur with similar structural patterns. This paper presents CORRECT, the first lightweight, training-free framework that leverages an online cache of distilled error schemata to recognize and transfer knowledge of failure structures across new requests. This cache-based reuse allows LLMs to perform targeted error localization at inference time, avoiding the need for expensive retraining while adapting to dynamic MAS deployments in subseconds. To support rigorous study in this domain, we also introduce CORRECT-Error, a large-scale dataset of over 2,000 annotated trajectories collected through a novel error-injection pipeline guided by real-world distributions, and further validated through human evaluation to ensure alignment with natural failure patterns. Experiments across seven diverse MAS applications show that CORRECT improves step-level error localization up to 19.8% over existing advances while at near-zero overhead, substantially narrowing the gap between automated and human-level error recognition.

  • 7 authors
·
Sep 28, 2025 2

PageRecall: Measuring Page Selection in Literature-Grounded Question Answering

We describe our system for LitTraceQA (GroundLM @ EMNLP 2026): given a research question, retrieve the relevant papers from a pool of 27,487, cite the page and the table or figure where the answer lives, and answer in a requested format. Our main finding is that evidence grounding is limited by retrieval, not by reading. The page selector put the annotator's page, which we call the gold page, in front of the model that locates evidence only about half the time (52.6% gold-page recall), while that model, given the page, cited the right one in 45 of the 48 locators it emitted (94%). When the page was missing it rarely said so: of 45 such cases it returned nothing 14 times, a wrong page 24 times, and a correct page 7 times, so the pipeline failed quietly almost twice as often as it failed visibly. Since the failure was that the right page was never shown, the fix is to stop choosing: each retrieved paper fits in the model's context, so we show it whole. Page ranking survives only as a fallback inside papers too long to fit, which no test-split paper was, and gold-page recall reaches 100% on the papers we can parse. Separately, questions that identify their target by position rather than content, such as "the first author of the 24th reference", are served by parsing rather than retrieval: we resolve the bibliography into an addressable list, which also supplies identifiers the evidence metric scores. The final system scores 0.762 paper F_1, 0.441 evidence F_1 and 0.920 multiple-choice accuracy on the held-out test split. Because the pipeline depends on a closed model without seed control, we release a harness that verifies the paper's central claims against committed artifacts.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 15

Meta-Tool: Efficient Few-Shot Tool Adaptation for Small Language Models

Can small language models achieve strong tool-use performance without complex adaptation mechanisms? This paper investigates this question through Meta-Tool, a controlled empirical study comparing hypernetwork-based LoRA adaptation against carefully designed few-shot prompting. Using a Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct backbone, we evaluate four adaptation mechanisms--few-shot prompting, documentation encoding, hypernetwork-generated LoRA weights, and value-guided beam search--across four diverse benchmarks: Gorilla APIBench, Spider 2.0, WebArena, and InterCode. Our central finding is a well-supported negative result: despite generating non-trivial weight matrices, the 227.8M-parameter hypernetwork provides no measurable improvement over few-shot prompting alone. Comprehensive ablation studies reveal that few-shot examples contribute +21.5% to performance and documentation contributes +5.0%, while the hypernetwork adds 0%. A 3B model with well-designed prompts achieves 79.7% of GPT-5's average performance at 10 times lower latency. Error analysis across 722 failure cases spanning all shot counts (0--5) shows that at the 5-shot configuration (106 failures), failure modes are task-dependent: schema-heavy tasks (Spider 2.0, WebArena) show near-zero format errors with remaining failures semantic, while format errors dominate on Gorilla (100%) and InterCode (70%). These findings redirect practitioners toward prompt engineering and example curation rather than complex adaptation architectures.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 21