Daily Papers

We propose a new partial-observability model for online learning problems where the learner, besides its own loss, also observes some noisy feedback about the other actions, depending on the underlying structure of the problem. We represent this structure by a weighted directed graph, where the edge weights are related to the quality of the feedback shared by the connected nodes. Our main contribution is an efficient algorithm that guarantees a regret of O(α^* T) after T rounds, where α^* is a novel graph property that we call the effective independence number. Our algorithm is completely parameter-free and does not require knowledge (or even estimation) of α^*. For the special case of binary edge weights, our setting reduces to the partial-observability models of Mannor and Shamir (2011) and Alon et al. (2013) and our algorithm recovers the near-optimal regret bounds.

We consider online learning problems under a partial observability model capturing situations where the information conveyed to the learner is between full information and bandit feedback. In the simplest variant, we assume that in addition to its own loss, the learner also gets to observe losses of some other actions. The revealed losses depend on the learner's action and a directed observation system chosen by the environment. For this setting, we propose the first algorithm that enjoys near-optimal regret guarantees without having to know the observation system before selecting its actions. Along similar lines, we also define a new partial information setting that models online combinatorial optimization problems where the feedback received by the learner is between semi-bandit and full feedback. As the predictions of our first algorithm cannot be always computed efficiently in this setting, we propose another algorithm with similar properties and with the benefit of always being computationally efficient, at the price of a slightly more complicated tuning mechanism. Both algorithms rely on a novel exploration strategy called implicit exploration, which is shown to be more efficient both computationally and information-theoretically than previously studied exploration strategies for the problem.

Inference-time planning with large language models frequently breaks under partial observability: when task-critical preconditions are not specified at query time, models tend to hallucinate missing facts or produce plans that violate hard constraints. We introduce Self-Querying Bidirectional Categorical Planning (SQ-BCP), which explicitly represents precondition status (Sat/Viol/Unk) and resolves unknowns via (i) targeted self-queries to an oracle/user or (ii) bridging hypotheses that establish the missing condition through an additional action. SQ-BCP performs bidirectional search and invokes a pullback-based verifier as a categorical certificate of goal compatibility, while using distance-based scores only for ranking and pruning. We prove that when the verifier succeeds and hard constraints pass deterministic checks, accepted plans are compatible with goal requirements; under bounded branching and finite resolution depth, SQ-BCP finds an accepting plan when one exists. Across WikiHow and RecipeNLG tasks with withheld preconditions, SQ-BCP reduces resource-violation rates to 14.9\% and 5.8\% (vs.\ 26.0\% and 15.7\% for the best baseline), while maintaining competitive reference quality.

We propose a stronger formulation of RL on top of RWKV-style recurrent sequence models, in which the fixed-size recurrent state is explicitly interpreted as a belief state rather than an opaque hidden vector. Instead of conditioning policy and value on a single summary h_t, we maintain a compact uncertainty-aware state b_t = (μ_t, Σ_t) derived from RWKV-style recurrent statistics and let control depend on both memory and uncertainty. This design targets a key weakness of plain fixed-state policies in partially observed settings: they may store evidence, but not necessarily confidence. We present the method, a theoretical program, and a pilot RL experiment with hidden episode-level observation noise together with a test-time noise sweep. The pilot shows that belief-state policies nearly match the best recurrent baseline overall while slightly improving return on the hardest in-distribution regime and under a held-out noise shift. Additional ablations show that this simple belief readout is currently stronger than two more structured extensions, namely gated memory control and privileged belief targets, underscoring the need for richer benchmarks.

Past analyses of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) assume that the human fully observes the environment. What happens when human feedback is based only on partial observations? We formally define two failure cases: deception and overjustification. Modeling the human as Boltzmann-rational w.r.t. a belief over trajectories, we prove conditions under which RLHF is guaranteed to result in policies that deceptively inflate their performance, overjustify their behavior to make an impression, or both. To help address these issues, we mathematically characterize how partial observability of the environment translates into (lack of) ambiguity in the learned return function. In some cases, accounting for partial observability makes it theoretically possible to recover the return function and thus the optimal policy, while in other cases, there is irreducible ambiguity. We caution against blindly applying RLHF in partially observable settings and propose research directions to help tackle these challenges.

Embodied AI agents that search for objects in large environments such as households often need to make efficient decisions by predicting object locations based on partial information. We pose this as a new type of link prediction problem: link prediction on partially observable dynamic graphs. Our graph is a representation of a scene in which rooms and objects are nodes, and their relationships are encoded in the edges; only parts of the changing graph are known to the agent at each timestep. This partial observability poses a challenge to existing link prediction approaches, which we address. We propose a novel state representation -- Scene Graph Memory (SGM) -- with captures the agent's accumulated set of observations, as well as a neural net architecture called a Node Edge Predictor (NEP) that extracts information from the SGM to search efficiently. We evaluate our method in the Dynamic House Simulator, a new benchmark that creates diverse dynamic graphs following the semantic patterns typically seen at homes, and show that NEP can be trained to predict the locations of objects in a variety of environments with diverse object movement dynamics, outperforming baselines both in terms of new scene adaptability and overall accuracy. The codebase and more can be found at https://www.scenegraphmemory.com.

A key challenge in training Vision-Language Model (VLM) agents, compared to Language Model (LLM) agents, lies in the shift from textual states to complex visual observations. This transition introduces partial observability and demands robust world modeling. We ask: Can VLM agents construct internal world models through explicit visual state reasoning? To address this question, we architecturally enforce and reward the agent's reasoning process via reinforcement learning (RL), formulating it as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). We find that decomposing the agent's reasoning into State Estimation ("what is the current state?") and Transition Modeling ("what comes next?") is critical for success, as demonstrated through five reasoning strategies. Our investigation into how agents represent internal beliefs reveals that the optimal representation is task-dependent: Natural Language excels at capturing semantic relationships in general tasks, while Structured formats are indispensable for precise manipulation and control. Building on these insights, we design a World Modeling Reward that provides dense, turn-level supervision for accurate state prediction, and introduce Bi-Level General Advantage Estimation (Bi-Level GAE) for turn-aware credit assignment. Through this form of visual state reasoning, a 3B-parameter model achieves a score of 0.82 across five diverse agent benchmarks, representing a 3times improvement over its untrained counterpart (0.21) and outperforming proprietary reasoning models such as GPT-5 (0.75), Gemini 2.5 Pro (0.67) and Claude 4.5 (0.62). All experiments are conducted within our VAGEN framework, a scalable system for training and analyzing multi-turn VLM agents in diverse visual environments. Code and data are publicly available at https://vagen-ai.github.io.

To assist humans over extended periods in real homes, embodied agents must remember user routines, world states, and past interactions. Existing long-term memory benchmarks mainly evaluate language-centric retrieval and question answering, while embodied benchmarks often focus on short-horizon task execution without testing long-term memory use in dynamic environments. We introduce WorldLines, a project-driven benchmark for long-horizon embodied household assistance. It constructs temporally extended household traces with dialogues, actions, execution feedback, object and device state changes, and converts them into evidence-linked samples for Memory QA and Embodied Task Planning. We further propose ObsMem, an observer-grounded memory framework that maintains visibility-aware memories and action-native state trails for state-aware decisions. Experiments reveal persistent challenges in partial observability, overwritten world states, and translating long-term memory into embodied plans, while ObsMem offers a stronger reference architecture for this setting.

It is well-known that inverse dynamics models can improve tracking performance in robot control. These models need to precisely capture the robot dynamics, which consist of well-understood components, e.g., rigid body dynamics, and effects that remain challenging to capture, e.g., stick-slip friction and mechanical flexibilities. Such effects exhibit hysteresis and partial observability, rendering them, particularly challenging to model. Hence, hybrid models, which combine a physical prior with data-driven approaches are especially well-suited in this setting. We present a novel hybrid model formulation that enables us to identify fully physically consistent inertial parameters of a rigid body dynamics model which is paired with a recurrent neural network architecture, allowing us to capture unmodeled partially observable effects using the network memory. We compare our approach against state-of-the-art inverse dynamics models on a 7 degree of freedom manipulator. Using data sets obtained through an optimal experiment design approach, we study the accuracy of offline torque prediction and generalization capabilities of joint learning methods. In control experiments on the real system, we evaluate the model as a feed-forward term for impedance control and show the feedback gains can be drastically reduced to achieve a given tracking accuracy.

Goal-conditioned visual navigation requires a robot to act under partial observability by anticipating how its motion will change the future egocentric view and whether that change brings it closer to the goal. Navigation world models provide such visual foresight, but they remain prediction modules that require an external planner to convert predicted futures into closed-loop control. We propose Navigation World Action Model (NavWAM), a diffusion-transformer policy that turns navigation world-model prediction into executable action by representing future observations, goal-progress values, and action chunks in a shared latent sequence. By learning future prediction jointly with the action and value targets that determine closed-loop behavior, NavWAM makes visual foresight directly usable for robot control. We build NavWAM through simulation pretraining and real-robot adaptation, and evaluate it on image-goal navigation against planning-based world models and a representative direct navigation policy. Across offline benchmarks and closed-loop real-robot deployment, NavWAM improves over planning-based world-model baselines in our evaluations while using the default policy mode without CEM-style action search. Project page: https://dachii-azm.github.io/navwam/

Large language models (LLMs) are being used as policies for autonomous decision-making and planning in many domains. Despite their strong reasoning capabilities, LLMs struggle with long-horizon tasks, especially under partial observability. World models are a promising way to enhance policy performance, both during training and inference. During inference, agents currently use world models to simulate the consequences of candidate actions before choosing an action, which can improve decision-making. However, we argue that simulation alone is an incomplete interface for decision-making under partial observability: simulation does not adequately capture uncertainty about the current state, which agents may need for accurate decision-making. We address this limitation with Belief-Based World Models (BB-WMs), which maintain a belief that LLMs can query to access information on what is known and uncertain about the current state. Before developing methods to learn accurate BB-WMs, this paper focuses on a more fundamental question: does exposing a world model's belief directly to an LLM policy improve decision-making? Our results show that giving LLM agents access to beliefs improves task performance under partial observability, while remaining complementary to existing simulation-based world models. Code: https://github.com/skumar-ml/belief-world-models.

Collectible card games (CCGs) are a difficult genre for AI due to their partial observability, long-term decision-making, and evolving card sets. Due to this, current AI models perform vastly worse than human players at CCG tasks such as deckbuilding and gameplay. In this work, we introduce UrzaGPT, a domain-adapted large language model that recommends real-time drafting decisions in Magic: The Gathering. Starting from an open-weight LLM, we use Low-Rank Adaptation fine-tuning on a dataset of annotated draft logs. With this, we leverage the language modeling capabilities of LLM, and can quickly adapt to different expansions of the game. We benchmark UrzaGPT in comparison to zero-shot LLMs and the state-of-the-art domain-specific model. Untuned, small LLMs like Llama-3-8B are completely unable to draft, but the larger GPT-4o achieves a zero-shot performance of 43%. Using UrzaGPT to fine-tune smaller models, we achieve an accuracy of 66.2% using only 10,000 steps. Despite this not reaching the capability of domain-specific models, we show that solely using LLMs to draft is possible and conclude that using LLMs can enable performant, general, and update-friendly drafting AIs in the future.

Driver alerting from dashcam video requires sequential decision-making under partial observability: a system must decide not only whether a scene is risky, but also when the evidence is sufficient to warn. Most existing accident anticipation models output a binary risk score, leaving ambiguous scenes to be handled by thresholding. We propose VLAlert, a vision-language alerting framework that casts warning generation as a tri-action policy over SILENT, OBSERVE, and ALERT. The OBSERVE action acts as an internal evidence-gathering decision that delays uncertain warnings and changes the next observation window, creating a lightweight perception-action loop for adaptive alerting. VLAlert uses Qwen3-VL-4B as a safety-evidence generator and pools hidden states from structured belief spans to form compact representations for danger estimation and policy prediction. We evaluate VLAlert on VLAlert-Bench, a unified per-tick benchmark from four real-world dashcam alert datasets, and further test transfer to held-out naturalistic ADAS takeover clips. On VLAlert-Bench validation, VLAlert achieves the highest deployment-oriented utility among tested baselines, with DAUS 0.4878 compared with 0.4752 for Open-BADAS, and improves AUROC, AP_tick, F1_t, and balanced accuracy from 0.610, 0.176, 0.276, and 0.581 to 0.689, 0.195, 0.297, and 0.648, respectively. On 221 held-out ADAS-TO-Critic clips, VLAlert improves R@5s from 74.2% to 88.7% and F1 from 0.585 to 0.686. These results indicate that adaptive observation and safety-focused VLM representations provide measurable gains for driver-facing alert decisions.

Vision-based whole-body loco-manipulation on humanoid robots is challenging due to partial observability, contact-rich dynamics, and the difficulty of learning long-horizon behaviors from high-dimensional visual inputs. We present https://github.com/DreamMimic/DreamMimic{DreamMimic}, a framework that distills privileged teacher policies into vision-based humanoid controllers via world-model-assisted distillation. Instead of using a Dreamer-style RSSM for planning, we repurpose it to learn predictive latent dynamics that serve as both a representation space and an action-conditioned multi-step supervision signal, while exposing compact predictive features to the student policy to reduce long-term drift. Beyond standard reconstruction objectives for proprioceptive and visual observations, we add auxiliary prediction heads for privileged state, contact, object state, and reward estimation. These heads provide additional supervision related to agent--object interaction and task progress, encouraging the latent representation to retain signals that are useful for contact-rich loco-manipulation. We further introduce Performance-Conditioned Guidance (PCG), a reward-driven adaptive distillation schedule that computes performance scores for both teacher and student to dynamically balance guidance and exploration. PCG prevents both premature teacher annealing and excessive teacher interference in challenging visual settings. Experiments on OMOMO and BEHAVE show improved tracking-based loco-manipulation performance over strong vision-based baselines, without exposing online privileged interaction states to the student at deployment. Qualitative simulations further examine morphology and simulator changes. These results suggest that world models can provide a useful mechanism for stabilizing visual policy distillation in contact-rich humanoid behaviors.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently shown strong reasoning and generalization capabilities, motivating their use as decision-making policies in complex environments. StarCraft II (SC2), with its massive state-action space and partial observability, is a challenging testbed. However, existing LLM-based SC2 agents primarily focus on improving the policy itself and overlook integrating a learnable, action-conditioned transition model into the decision loop. To bridge this gap, we propose StarWM, the first world model for SC2 that predicts future observations under partial observability. To facilitate learning SC2's hybrid dynamics, we introduce a structured textual representation that factorizes observations into five semantic modules, and construct SC2-Dynamics-50k, the first instruction-tuning dataset for SC2 dynamics prediction. We further develop a multi-dimensional offline evaluation framework for predicted structured observations. Offline results show StarWM's substantial gains over zero-shot baselines, including nearly 60% improvements in resource prediction accuracy and self-side macro-situation consistency. Finally, we propose StarWM-Agent, a world-model-augmented decision system that integrates StarWM into a Generate--Simulate--Refine decision loop for foresight-driven policy refinement. Online evaluation against SC2's built-in AI demonstrates consistent improvements, yielding win-rate gains of 30%, 15%, and 30% against Hard (LV5), Harder (LV6), and VeryHard (LV7), respectively, alongside improved macro-management stability and tactical risk assessment.

Programming robot behavior in a complex world faces challenges on multiple levels, from dextrous low-level skills to high-level planning and reasoning. Recent pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable reasoning ability in few-shot robotic planning. However, it remains challenging to ground LLMs in multimodal sensory input and continuous action output, while enabling a robot to interact with its environment and acquire novel information as its policies unfold. We develop a robot interaction scenario with a partially observable state, which necessitates a robot to decide on a range of epistemic actions in order to sample sensory information among multiple modalities, before being able to execute the task correctly. An interactive perception framework is therefore proposed with an LLM as its backbone, whose ability is exploited to instruct epistemic actions and to reason over the resulting multimodal sensations (vision, sound, haptics, proprioception), as well as to plan an entire task execution based on the interactively acquired information. Our study demonstrates that LLMs can provide high-level planning and reasoning skills and control interactive robot behavior in a multimodal environment, while multimodal modules with the context of the environmental state help ground the LLMs and extend their processing ability. The project website can be found at https://matcha-model.github.io{blue{https://matcha-model.github.io/}}.

Autonomous intelligence requires not only perception and reasoning, but critically, effective interaction with the existing world and its infrastructure. Everyday environments are rich in tangible control interfaces (TCIs), e.g., light switches, appliance panels, and embedded GUIs, that demand commonsense and physics reasoning, but also causal prediction and outcome verification in time and space (e.g., delayed heating, remote lights). Moreover, failures here have potential safety implications, yet current benchmarks rarely test grounding, partial observability (video), or post-hoc verification in situated settings. We introduce SWITCH (Semantic World Interface Tasks for Control and Handling), an embodied, task-driven benchmark created through iterative releases to probe these gaps. Its first iteration, SWITCH-Basic, evaluates five complementary abilities:task-aware VQA, semantic UI grounding, action generation, state-transition prediction, and result verification, under egocentric RGB video input and device diversity. Across 351 tasks spanning 98 real devices and appliances, commercial and open LMMMs exhibit inconsistent performance even on single-step interactions, often over-relying on textual cues and under-using visual or video evidence (and high aggregate scores can mask such failures). SWITCH provides data, code, and held-out splits to enable reproducible evaluation and community contributions toward more challenging future iterations of the benchmark and the creation of training datasets. Benchmark resources are available at: https://github.com/BAAI-Agents/SWITCH.

Egocentric world models present a promising direction for enabling agents to predict and plan, but their performance is constrained by the limited availability of egocentric training data and its inherent partial observability of humans' physical actions. In contrast, exocentric video is abundant and reveals body poses well, but lacks direct alignment with an agent's action space -- and is not egocentric. We propose a method to bridge this gap by extracting structured body pose from exocentric video as a representation of action and transforming the exocentric video to egocentric video, informed by a human kinematics prior. This process unlocks the integration of in-the-wild exocentric data for egocentric world model training. We show that training whole-body action-conditioned egocentric world models with our converted data significantly improves both prediction quality and downstream planning performance, where we infer the sequence of body poses needed to achieve a visual goal state. Our approach paves the way to enlist arbitrary in-the-wild videos for building powerful egocentric world models, furthering applications in robot planning and augmented-reality guidance.

Whether navigating a building, operating a robot, or playing a game, an agent that acts effectively in an environment must first learn an internal model of how that environment works. Partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a flexible modeling class for such internal world models, but learning them from observation-action trajectories alone is challenging and typically requires extensive environment interaction. We ask whether language-model priors can reduce costly interaction by leveraging prior knowledge, and introduce Pinductor (POMDP-inductor): an LLM proposes candidate POMDP models from a few observation-action trajectories and iteratively refines them to optimize a belief-based likelihood score. Despite using strictly less information, Pinductor matches the performance and sample efficiency of LLM-based POMDP learning methods that assume privileged access to the hidden state, while significantly surpassing the sample efficiency of tabular POMDP baselines. Further results show that performance scales with LLM capability and degrades gracefully as semantic information about the environment is withheld. Together, these results position language-model priors as a practical tool for sample-efficient world-model learning under partial observability, and a step toward generalist agents in real-world environments. Code is available at https://github.com/atomresearch/pinductor.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models are gaining attention in robotics, yet their robustness to adversarial attacks remains largely unexplored. Existing work shows that adversarial patches can mislead VLA-based robots but assumes full access to the entire execution trajectory, an unrealistic requirement in practice. We address this limitation by formulating a partially observable threat model, where the adversary can exploit only a short prefix of the trajectory to generate a fixed patch applied to all subsequent frames. Under this setting, we propose a two-phase framework. First, we localize the patch using the model's attention maps to identify visually critical regions that correspond to the full instruction. Then, we optimize the patch to disrupt the semantic grounding of target objects and increase the curvature of action trajectories, thereby compounding failures in both perception and control. Extensive experiments in simulation and real-world robotic environments show that our method sustains adversarial effects under partial observability, inducing long-horizon disruptions and significantly reducing task success rates.

Sequential decision making, commonly formalized as Markov Decision Process (MDP) optimization, is a important challenge in artificial intelligence. Two key approaches to this problem are reinforcement learning (RL) and planning. This paper presents a survey of the integration of both fields, better known as model-based reinforcement learning. Model-based RL has two main steps. First, we systematically cover approaches to dynamics model learning, including challenges like dealing with stochasticity, uncertainty, partial observability, and temporal abstraction. Second, we present a systematic categorization of planning-learning integration, including aspects like: where to start planning, what budgets to allocate to planning and real data collection, how to plan, and how to integrate planning in the learning and acting loop. After these two sections, we also discuss implicit model-based RL as an end-to-end alternative for model learning and planning, and we cover the potential benefits of model-based RL. Along the way, the survey also draws connections to several related RL fields, like hierarchical RL and transfer learning. Altogether, the survey presents a broad conceptual overview of the combination of planning and learning for MDP optimization.

Current applications of self-supervised learning to wireless channel representation often borrow paradigms developed for text and image processing, without fully addressing the unique characteristics and constraints of wireless communications. To bridge this gap, we introduce ContraWiMAE, Wireless Contrastive Masked Autoencoder, a transformer-based foundation model that unifies masked reconstruction and masked contrastive learning for wireless channel representation. Our key innovation is a new wireless-inspired contrastive objective that exploits the inherent characteristics of wireless environment, including noise, fading, and partial observability, as natural augmentation. Through extensive evaluation on unseen scenarios and conditions, we demonstrate our method's effectiveness in multiple downstream tasks, including cross-frequency beam selection, line-of-sight detection, and channel estimation. ContraWiMAE exhibits superior linear separability and adaptability in diverse wireless environments, demonstrating exceptional data efficiency and competitive performance compared with supervised baselines under challenging conditions. Comparative evaluations against a state-of-the-art wireless channel foundation model confirm the superior performance and data efficiency of our approach, highlighting its potential as a powerful baseline for future research in self-supervised wireless channel representation learning. To foster further work in this direction, we release the model weights and training pipeline for ContraWiMAE.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models have advanced robot manipulation through large-scale pretraining, but real-world deployment remains challenging due to partial observability and delayed feedback. Reinforcement learning addresses this via value functions, which assess task progress and guide policy improvement. However, existing value models built on vision-language models (VLMs) struggle to capture temporal dynamics, undermining reliable value estimation in long-horizon tasks. In this paper, we propose ViVa, a video-generative value model that repurposes a pretrained video generator for value estimation. Taking the current observation and robot proprioception as input, ViVa jointly predicts future proprioception and a scalar value for the current state. By leveraging the spatiotemporal priors of a pretrained video generator, our approach grounds value estimation in anticipated embodiment dynamics, moving beyond static snapshots to intrinsically couple value with foresight. Integrated into RECAP, ViVa delivers substantial improvements on real-world box assembly. Qualitative analysis across all three tasks confirms that ViVa produces more reliable value signals, accurately reflecting task progress. By leveraging spatiotemporal priors from video corpora, ViVa also generalizes to novel objects, highlighting the promise of video-generative models for value estimation.

Humans anticipate, from a glance and a contemplated action of their bodies, how the 3D world will respond, a capability that is equally vital for robotic manipulation. We introduce PointWorld, a large pre-trained 3D world model that unifies state and action in a shared 3D space as 3D point flows: given one or few RGB-D images and a sequence of low-level robot action commands, PointWorld forecasts per-pixel displacements in 3D that respond to the given actions. By representing actions as 3D point flows instead of embodiment-specific action spaces (e.g., joint positions), this formulation directly conditions on physical geometries of robots while seamlessly integrating learning across embodiments. To train our 3D world model, we curate a large-scale dataset spanning real and simulated robotic manipulation in open-world environments, enabled by recent advances in 3D vision and simulated environments, totaling about 2M trajectories and 500 hours across a single-arm Franka and a bimanual humanoid. Through rigorous, large-scale empirical studies of backbones, action representations, learning objectives, partial observability, data mixtures, domain transfers, and scaling, we distill design principles for large-scale 3D world modeling. With a real-time (0.1s) inference speed, PointWorld can be efficiently integrated in the model-predictive control (MPC) framework for manipulation. We demonstrate that a single pre-trained checkpoint enables a real-world Franka robot to perform rigid-body pushing, deformable and articulated object manipulation, and tool use, without requiring any demonstrations or post-training and all from a single image captured in-the-wild. Project website at https://point-world.github.io/.

Robot imitation data are often multimodal: similar visual-language observations may be followed by different action chunks because human demonstrators act with different short-horizon intents, task phases, or recent context. Existing frame-conditioned VLA policies infer each chunk from the current observation and instruction alone, so under partial observability they may resample different intents across adjacent replanning steps, leading to inter-chunk conflict and unstable execution. We introduce IntentVLA, a history-conditioned VLA framework that encodes recent visual observations into a compact short-horizon intent representation and uses it to condition chunk generation. We further introduce AliasBench, a 12-task ambiguity-aware benchmark on RoboTwin2 with matched training data and evaluation environments that isolate short-horizon observation aliasing. Across AliasBench, SimplerEnv, LIBERO, and RoboCasa, IntentVLA improves rollout stability and outperforms strong VLA baselines

Vision-language-action (VLA) models predict chunks of future actions from the current observation, an assumption that fails under partial observability, where decisions depend on information no longer visible. Existing memory-augmented VLAs simultaneously introduce recurrence, retrieval, compression modules, auxiliary objectives, hierarchical memory, or task-specific architectural changes, so the contribution of recurrence itself remains entangled with surrounding machinery. We present a controlled isolation study of recurrence in a strong pretrained VLA backbone. Our formulation augments the transformer with a small set of learnable memory tokens carried across timesteps and updated through self-attention, trained end to end with truncated backpropagation through time, with no auxiliary losses and no architectural changes. We instantiate this as μVLA, a family of OpenVLA-OFT variants parameterized by memory width m, TBPTT length K, and the memory update rule (cross-step gradients or a detached EMA), so that recurrence is the only varying factor. On MIKASA-Robo, μVLA improves average success rate on five training tasks from 0.42 to 0.84 at the strongest setting and reaches 0.23 on held-out tasks with the same memory structure versus 0.07 for the memoryless baseline. On tasks requiring different memory structure, performance remains near baseline. On LIBERO, the strongest recurrent variant achieves 96.2% average success, indicating no regression under full observability. We interpret these results as a calibration of the capability envelope of minimal in-backbone recurrence, identifying the regime in which it is sufficient and the regime where additional memory structure is required. Demos and videos can be found in https://avanturist322.github.io/mu-vla/.

Reinforcement learning (RL) for large language models (LLMs) increasingly relies on sparse, outcome-level rewards -- yet determining which actions within a long trajectory caused the outcome remains difficult. This credit assignment (CA) problem manifests in two regimes: reasoning RL, where credit must be distributed across tokens and steps within a single chain-of-thought generation (500--30K+ tokens); and agentic RL, where multi-turn environment interaction introduces stochastic transitions, partial observability, and horizons of 100+ turns (100K--1M tokens), making episode-level credit increasingly uninformative. We survey 47 CA methods (41 core, 6 adjacent enablers) published between 2024 and early 2026, organizing them in a two-dimensional taxonomy by assignment granularity (token, segment, step, turn, multi-agent) and methodology (Monte Carlo, temporal difference, model-based, game-theoretic, information-theoretic). Beyond the survey itself, we contribute three reusable resources: (1) a structured, machine-readable paper inventory with taxonomy labels, baseline families, and evidence levels; (2) a reporting checklist for future CA papers, validated against the reviewed literature to identify systematic methodological gaps; and (3) a benchmark protocol specification with task families, metadata requirements, and controlled bifurcation tasks, accompanied by a method selection decision tree. Our synthesis suggests that the shift from reasoning to agentic RL complicates and reshapes the credit assignment landscape: reasoning CA is maturing around process reward models and critic-free group comparison, while agentic CA is driving genuinely new approaches -- hindsight counterfactual analysis, privileged asymmetric critics, and turn-level MDP reformulations -- that have no direct precedent in reasoning RL.

AI agents in partially observable environments need to coordinate active sensing with working memory to maintain an evolving perceptual state. However, existing benchmarks struggle to isolate this perceptual-state construction and interpretation capability because they introduce physical and control complexities. We address this with MNIST-PRO, a benchmark that isolates agentic perception by converting MNIST digit recognition into a sequential, glimpse-based search task with lookback constraints. We evaluate ten multimodal models across four memory representations, including raw visual history, textual states, structured metric grid maps, and a consolidated visual canvas. While models excel under full observability, partial observability exposes a clear performance gap. We identify three distinct bottlenecks. First, perceptual-state construction and interpretation present a challenge, as agents struggle to integrate fragmented glimpses. Second, agents often stop exploring before they see the full sequence. Third, models often fail to revise early, incorrect beliefs even when faced with subsequent contradictory evidence. These results show that simply acquiring visual evidence is not enough. Agents must also be able to build and update a reliable perceptual state.

Hybrid reasoning systems that combine learned components with model-based inference are increasingly deployed in tool-augmented decision loops, yet their runtime behavior under partial observability and sustained evidence mismatch remains poorly understood. In practice, failures often arise as gradual divergence of internal reasoning dynamics rather than as isolated prediction errors. This work studies runtime stability in hybrid reasoning systems from a Kalman-inspired perspective. We model reasoning as a stochastic inference process driven by an internal innovation signal and introduce cognitive drift as a measurable runtime phenomenon. Stability is defined in terms of detectability, bounded divergence, and recoverability rather than task-level correctness. We propose a runtime stability framework that monitors innovation statistics, detects emerging instability, and triggers recovery-aware control mechanisms. Experiments on multi-step, tool-augmented reasoning tasks demonstrate reliable instability detection prior to task failure and show that recovery, when feasible, re-establishes bounded internal behavior within finite time. These results emphasize runtime stability as a system-level requirement for reliable reasoning under uncertainty.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) can integrate long visual histories, reason under partial observability, and infer behavior from a few examples. Yet vision-language-action (VLA) models generally inherit pretrained representations without using this contextual capacity as episode memory. Memory-dependent policies address this gap through purpose-built history mechanisms. PonderPounce instead reuses an MLLM's native causal context as robot memory. Ponder, a System2 MLLM, accumulates episode observations, demonstrations, and prior cognition in its native causal context and can generate subgoal text and demonstration reasoning for internal use. Pounce, a System1 VLA, receives the current observation, instruction, and proprioception directly; through the Ponder--Pounce interface, it asynchronously receives only the newest continuous cognition token and its age. Both are jointly trained end to end without a purpose-built memory module or separate bridge pretraining. Optimized serving achieves p50 latencies of 78ms for cognition refresh and 25ms for action-model invocation, supporting 20Hz action playback. On RoboMME with base-scale training data, PonderPounce reaches 60.83% with 9B and 50.04% with 0.8B under the same Pounce architecture and interface, versus 44.51% for FrameSamp+Modul and 17.93% for the current-observation π_{0.5}. With 9x data, it reaches 75.54% versus 57.88% for FrameSamp+Modul. On RoboCasa-DC, the same interface learns from action supervision alone and reaches 12.5% versus 11.6% for the strongest published demonstration-conditioned baseline, falling to 8.6% when cognition is replaced by a learned null state.

Most existing spatial reasoning benchmarks focus on static or globally observable environments, failing to capture the challenges of long-horizon reasoning and memory utilization under partial observability and dynamic changes. We introduce two dynamic spatial benchmarks, locally observable maze navigation and match-2 elimination that systematically evaluate models' abilities in spatial understanding and adaptive planning when local perception, environment feedback, and global objectives are tightly coupled. Each action triggers structural changes in the environment, requiring continuous update of cognition and strategy. We further propose a subjective experience-based memory mechanism for cross-task experience transfer and validation. Experiments show that our benchmarks reveal key limitations of mainstream models in dynamic spatial reasoning and long-term memory, providing a comprehensive platform for future methodological advances. Our code and data are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/EvoEmpirBench-143C/.

Understanding TTPs (Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures) in malware binaries is essential for security analysis and threat intelligence, yet remains challenging in practice. Real-world malware binaries are typically stripped of symbols, contain large numbers of functions, and distribute malicious behavior across multiple code regions, making TTP attribution difficult. Recent large language models (LLMs) offer strong code understanding capabilities, but applying them directly to this task faces challenges in identifying analysis entry points, reasoning under partial observability, and misalignment with TTP-specific decision logic. We present TTPDetect, the first LLM agent for recognizing TTPs in stripped malware binaries. TTPDetect combines dense retrieval with LLM-based neural retrieval to narrow the space of analysis entry points. TTPDetect further employs a function-level analyzing agent consisting of a Context Explorer that performs on-demand, incremental context retrieval and a TTP-Specific Reasoning Guideline that achieves inference-time alignment. We build a new dataset that labels decompiled functions with TTPs across diverse malware families and platforms. TTPDetect achieves 93.25% precision and 93.81% recall on function-level TTP recognition, outperforming baselines by 10.38% and 18.78%, respectively. When evaluated on real world malware samples, TTPDetect recognizes TTPs with a precision of 87.37%. For malware with expert-written reports, TTPDetect recovers 85.7% of the documented TTPs and further discovers, on average, 10.5 previously unreported TTPs per malware.

Large language models (LLMs) encode a vast amount of world knowledge acquired from massive text datasets. Recent studies have demonstrated that LLMs can assist an embodied agent in solving complex sequential decision making tasks by providing high-level instructions. However, interactions with LLMs can be time-consuming. In many practical scenarios, they require a significant amount of storage space that can only be deployed on remote cloud server nodes. Additionally, using commercial LLMs can be costly since they may charge based on usage frequency. In this paper, we explore how to enable intelligent cost-effective interactions between the agent and an LLM. We propose When2Ask, a reinforcement learning based approach that learns when it is necessary to query LLMs for high-level instructions to accomplish a target task. Experiments on MiniGrid and Habitat environments that entail planning sub-goals demonstrate that When2Ask learns to solve target tasks with only a few necessary interactions with an LLM, and significantly reduces interaction costs in testing environments compared with baseline methods. Experiment results also suggest that by learning a mediator model to interact with the LLM, the agent's performance becomes more robust against partial observability of the environment. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZJLAB-AMMI/LLM4RL.

Conversational AI systems built on Large Language Models (LLMs) require routing mechanisms that balance answer quality and response latency at scale. However, existing LLM routing benchmarks assume full observability of all candidate model outcomes, under-emphasize latency as a first-class metric, and fragment evaluation across heterogeneous protocols misaligned with real-world settings. We introduce RouterWorld, a comprehensive benchmark for LLM routing in conversational GenAI. RouterWorld unifies 371k single-turn responses and 76k multi-turn agentic trajectories, adopts natural user interactions with a standardized LLM-as-a-judge protocol, and decouples efficiency from transient pricing via hardware-grounded latency annotations. Crucially, RouterWorld formalizes routing under partial observability through two setups: Cold-Start, which restricts learning to sparse, static logs, and Voyager, which models continuous data streams where routing decisions shape future training distributions. Evaluating 13 routing baselines, we find that most routers over-emphasize accuracy while ignoring latency under partial observability. Code and benchmark data are publicly available.

Coding harnesses such as Claude Code and OpenHands wrap foundation models with tools, memory, and planning, but no equivalent exists for embodied agents' long-horizon partial-observability decision-making. We first report our Gemini Plays Pokemon (GPP) experiments. With iterative human-in-the-loop harness refinement, GPP became the first AI system to complete Pokemon Blue, Yellow Legacy on hard mode, and Crystal without a lost battle. In the hardest stages, the agent itself began iterating on its strategy through long-context memory, surfacing emergent self-improvement signals alongside human-in-the-loop refinement. Continual Harness removes the human fully from this loop: a reset-free self-improving harness for embodied agents that formalizes and automates what we observed. Starting from only a minimal environment interface, the agent alternates between acting and refining its own prompt, sub-agents, skills, and memory, drawing on any past trajectory data. Prompt-optimization methods require episode resets; Continual Harness adapts online within a single run. On Pokemon Red and Emerald across frontier models, Continual Harness starting from scratch substantially reduces button-press cost relative to the minimalist baseline and recovers a majority of the gap to a hand-engineered expert harness, with capability-dependent gains, despite starting from the same raw interface with no curated knowledge, no hand-crafted tools, and no domain scaffolding. We then close the loop with the model itself: an online process-reward co-learning loop, in which an open-source agent's rollouts through the refining harness are relabeled by a frontier teacher and used to update the model, drives sustained in-game milestone progress on Pokemon Red without resetting the environment between training iterations.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed on long-horizon tasks in partially observable environments, where they must act while inferring and tracking a complex environment state over many steps. This leads to two challenges: partial observability requires maintaining uncertainty over unobserved world attributes, and long interaction history causes context to grow without bound, diluting task-relevant information. A principled solution to both challenges is a belief state: a posterior distribution over environment states given past observations and actions, which compactly encodes history for decision making regardless of episode length. In LLM agents, however, the open-ended nature of text makes it unclear how to represent such a distribution. Therefore, we introduce Agent-BRACE: Agent Belief state Representation via Abstraction and Confidence Estimation, a method that decouples an LLM agent into a belief state model and a policy model, jointly optimized via reinforcement learning. The belief state model produces a structured approximation of the belief distribution: a set of atomic natural language claims about the environment, each annotated with an ordinal verbalized certainty label ranging from certain to unknown. The policy model conditions on this compact, structured approximate belief rather than the full history, learning to select actions under explicit uncertainty. Across long-horizon, partially observable embodied language environments, Agent-BRACE achieves an average absolute improvement of +14.5% (Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct) and +5.3% (Qwen3-4B-Instruct), outperforming strong RL baselines while maintaining a near-constant context window independent of episode length. Further analysis shows that the learned belief becomes increasingly calibrated over the course of an episode as evidence accumulates.

In many reinforcement learning (RL) applications one cannot easily let the agent act in the world; this is true for autonomous vehicles, healthcare applications, and even some recommender systems, to name a few examples. Offline RL provides a way to train agents without real-world exploration, but is often faced with biases due to data distribution shifts, limited coverage, and incomplete representation of the environment. To address these issues, practical applications have tried to combine simulators with grounded offline data, using so-called hybrid methods. However, constructing a reliable simulator is in itself often challenging due to intricate system complexities as well as missing or incomplete information. In this work, we outline four principal challenges for combining offline data with imperfect simulators in RL: simulator modeling error, partial observability, state and action discrepancies, and hidden confounding. To help drive the RL community to pursue these problems, we construct ``Benchmarks for Mechanistic Offline Reinforcement Learning'' (B4MRL), which provide dataset-simulator benchmarks for the aforementioned challenges. Our results suggest the key necessity of such benchmarks for future research.

Vision-language models (VLMs) have shown impressive capabilities across diverse tasks, motivating efforts to leverage these models to supervise robot learning. However, when used as evaluators in reinforcement learning (RL), today's strongest models often fail under partial observability and distribution shift, enabling policies to exploit perceptual errors rather than solve the task. To address this limitation, we introduce SOLE-R1 (Self-Observing LEarner), a video-language reasoning model explicitly designed to serve as the sole reward signal for online RL. Given only raw video observations and a natural-language goal, SOLE-R1 performs per-timestep spatiotemporal chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning and produces dense estimates of task progress that can be used directly as rewards. To train SOLE-R1, we develop a large-scale video trajectory and reasoning synthesis pipeline that generates temporally grounded CoT traces aligned with continuous progress supervision. This data is combined with foundational spatial and multi-frame temporal reasoning, and used to train the model with a hybrid framework that couples supervised fine-tuning with RL from verifiable rewards. Across four different simulation environments and a real-robot setting, SOLE-R1 enables zero-shot online RL from random initialization: robots learn previously unseen manipulation tasks without ground-truth rewards, success indicators, demonstrations, or task-specific tuning. SOLE-R1 succeeds on 24 unseen tasks and substantially outperforms strong vision-language rewarders, including GPT-5 and Gemini-3-Pro, while exhibiting markedly greater robustness to reward hacking.

Planning has been very successful for control tasks with known environment dynamics. To leverage planning in unknown environments, the agent needs to learn the dynamics from interactions with the world. However, learning dynamics models that are accurate enough for planning has been a long-standing challenge, especially in image-based domains. We propose the Deep Planning Network (PlaNet), a purely model-based agent that learns the environment dynamics from images and chooses actions through fast online planning in latent space. To achieve high performance, the dynamics model must accurately predict the rewards ahead for multiple time steps. We approach this using a latent dynamics model with both deterministic and stochastic transition components. Moreover, we propose a multi-step variational inference objective that we name latent overshooting. Using only pixel observations, our agent solves continuous control tasks with contact dynamics, partial observability, and sparse rewards, which exceed the difficulty of tasks that were previously solved by planning with learned models. PlaNet uses substantially fewer episodes and reaches final performance close to and sometimes higher than strong model-free algorithms.

Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) has been studied mainly in either discrete or continuous settings, with little attention to dynamic, crowded environments. We present HA-VLN 2.0, a unified benchmark introducing explicit social-awareness constraints. Our contributions are: (i) a standardized task and metrics capturing both goal accuracy and personal-space adherence; (ii) HAPS 2.0 dataset and simulators modeling multi-human interactions, outdoor contexts, and finer language-motion alignment; (iii) benchmarks on 16,844 socially grounded instructions, revealing sharp performance drops of leading agents under human dynamics and partial observability; and (iv) real-world robot experiments validating sim-to-real transfer, with an open leaderboard enabling transparent comparison. Results show that explicit social modeling improves navigation robustness and reduces collisions, underscoring the necessity of human-centric approaches. By releasing datasets, simulators, baselines, and protocols, HA-VLN 2.0 provides a strong foundation for safe, socially responsible navigation research.

We present a unified framework for studying the identifiability of representations learned from simultaneously observed views, such as different data modalities. We allow a partially observed setting in which each view constitutes a nonlinear mixture of a subset of underlying latent variables, which can be causally related. We prove that the information shared across all subsets of any number of views can be learned up to a smooth bijection using contrastive learning and a single encoder per view. We also provide graphical criteria indicating which latent variables can be identified through a simple set of rules, which we refer to as identifiability algebra. Our general framework and theoretical results unify and extend several previous works on multi-view nonlinear ICA, disentanglement, and causal representation learning. We experimentally validate our claims on numerical, image, and multi-modal data sets. Further, we demonstrate that the performance of prior methods is recovered in different special cases of our setup. Overall, we find that access to multiple partial views enables us to identify a more fine-grained representation, under the generally milder assumption of partial observability.

Spatial embodied intelligence requires agents to act to acquire information under partial observability. While multimodal foundation models excel at passive perception, their capacity for active, self-directed exploration remains understudied. We propose Theory of Space, defined as an agent's ability to actively acquire information through self-directed, active exploration and to construct, revise, and exploit a spatial belief from sequential, partial observations. We evaluate this through a benchmark where the goal is curiosity-driven exploration to build an accurate cognitive map. A key innovation is spatial belief probing, which prompts models to reveal their internal spatial representations at each step. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art models reveals several critical bottlenecks. First, we identify an Active-Passive Gap, where performance drops significantly when agents must autonomously gather information. Second, we find high inefficiency, as models explore unsystematically compared to program-based proxies. Through belief probing, we diagnose that while perception is an initial bottleneck, global beliefs suffer from instability that causes spatial knowledge to degrade over time. Finally, using a false belief paradigm, we uncover Belief Inertia, where agents fail to update obsolete priors with new evidence. This issue is present in text-based agents but is particularly severe in vision-based models. Our findings suggest that current foundation models struggle to maintain coherent, revisable spatial beliefs during active exploration.

Recent developments in the field of model-based RL have proven successful in a range of environments, especially ones where planning is essential. However, such successes have been limited to deterministic fully-observed environments. We present a new approach that handles stochastic and partially-observable environments. Our key insight is to use discrete autoencoders to capture the multiple possible effects of an action in a stochastic environment. We use a stochastic variant of Monte Carlo tree search to plan over both the agent's actions and the discrete latent variables representing the environment's response. Our approach significantly outperforms an offline version of MuZero on a stochastic interpretation of chess where the opponent is considered part of the environment. We also show that our approach scales to DeepMind Lab, a first-person 3D environment with large visual observations and partial observability.

Large language models (LLMs) provide a flexible interface for long-horizon robot planning, but generated plans often fail to respect embodiment constraints, recover from planning errors, or reason effectively under partial observability. We present GAVEL, a framework for verifying and repairing long-horizon LLM planning built around an explicit graph world model. The graph represents relevant object-relations, action pre-conditions and effects, and probabilistic beliefs over unobserved object locations. This model can predict the consequences of LLM-generated actions before execution, detect violations, and repair those whose corrections follow directly from the world model. This method also reserves LLM replanning solely for errors requiring semantic reasoning. For multi-task instructions, GAVEL reasons over distributions of possible object locations to reorder remaining subtasks and minimize expected search cost. We evaluate GAVEL on BEHAVIOR-1K across 100 single long-horizon tasks and 500 multi-task instructions. With Qwen3-8B, GAVEL improves single-task success from 41.2% to 91.8% and multi-task success from 19.9% to 92.6%. Distributional belief reasoning also reduces travel distance by approximately 5.4% compared with a static variant. These improvements show that an explicit graph world model harness can substantially improve the reliability and efficiency of long-horizon embodied planning across compact and frontier hosted LLM capabilities.

Text-agent environments are typically modeled as partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), assuming that the simulator's latent state and transition dynamics are hidden from the agent. Yet little work has examined whether executable code can be induced to serve as a world model for prediction and planning under partial observability. We introduce PatchWorld, a gradient-free framework that turns offline trajectories into executable Python world models through counterexample-guided code repair. Instead of predicting the next observation with a black-box model, PatchWorld induces symbolic belief-state programs whose action updates can be inspected, replayed, and locally patched. Across seven AgentGym environments, PatchWorld-Simple achieves the highest code-based planning score among evaluated methods, reaching 76.4\% macro success in live one-step lookahead while invoking no LLM calls inside the world-model prediction module itself. We further find that a human-specified residual-memory bias improves surface observation fidelity but weakens decision utility. This exposes a tradeoff in executable world models, since improving observation fidelity can come at the expense of action-discriminative dynamics, and vice versa. Code is available at https://github.com/HKBU-KnowComp/PatchWorld.

Most imitation learning methods assume full observability in table-top settings. In practice, objects are often occluded, requiring robots to both search and act, and learning this coupled behavior from limited demonstrations remains challenging. We propose See2Act, an imitation learning approach that conditions action prediction on a sequence of actively-inferred viewpoints at test time, by coupling action denoising with viewpoint refinement. The policy is trained using camera poses anchored to keyframe actions from offline demonstrations, enabling implicit learning of where to see, while learning how to act. We empirically demonstrate that in Ravens the policy recovers informative viewpoints under severe occlusions, and on RLBench tasks it improves performance by up to 34% over prior methods. In the real world, we collect 50 demonstrations in a digital twin and achieve zero-shot sim-to-real transfer on pick-and-place tasks using depth observations. The policy handles significant occlusions, showing that learned viewpoint reasoning enables robust manipulation under partial observability.

Large foundation models have accelerated progress toward general-purpose agents that interact with humans and other agents through language and multimodal signals. However, robust multi-agent decision-making requires reasoning about what other agents know, intend, and are likely to do under partial observability. Current agentic systems often operate through prompt design, memory, or end-to-end behavioral shaping, but typically do not learn an explicit partner-state representation that can be reused as a decision variable across tasks. We introduce mental-model-enabled agents, a framework that equips an agent with a latent mental model of its counterpart, allowing it to infer hidden beliefs, intentions, and likely reactions from the observed history and use these inferences to guide action selection. Our method learns an amortized recursive Theory-of-Mind representation, with first- and second-order mental-state structure, jointly with a belief-conditioned reward model that evaluates candidate actions relative to the inferred partner state. A policy is then learned under this belief-aware signal, yielding an agent that can act independently at inference time while retaining the benefits of explicit partner modeling. We evaluate the same framework on both language-only and multimodal benchmarks. Across these settings, explicit mental-state modeling consistently improves interaction quality and Theory-of-Mind performance over base agentic systems, showing that structured partner modeling is a useful inductive bias for general multi-agent systems. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/hananshafi/Mental-Models

Robust coordination is critical for effective decision-making in multi-agent systems, especially under partial observability. A central question in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) is whether to engineer communication protocols or learn them end-to-end. We investigate this dichotomy using embodied world models. We propose and compare two communication strategies for a cooperative task-allocation problem. The first, Learned Direct Communication (LDC), learns a protocol end-to-end, with agents generating messages and actions concurrently. The second, Intention Communication, uses an engineered inductive bias: a compact, learned world model, the Imagined Trajectory Generation Module (ITGM), to simulate future states. Agents then communicate a summary of this plan. We evaluate these approaches on goal-directed interaction in a grid world, a canonical abstraction for embodied AI problems. Our experiments reveal that while emergent communication is viable in simple settings, the engineered, world model-based approach shows superior performance, sample efficiency, and scalability as complexity increases. These findings advocate for integrating structured, predictive models into MARL agents to enable active, goal-driven coordination.

Occlusion-aware prediction remains a critical challenge in autonomous driving due to the inherent uncertainty of unobserved regions. Existing approaches either overestimate risk based on reachable states or struggle to predict accurate trajectories under high occlusion uncertainty. To address these limitations, we propose a unified risk map modeling and learning framework for partially observable environments. Our method integrates traffic flow risk and collision risk through spatiotemporal modeling, enabling fine-grained assessment of occlusion-induced hazards. To address the scarcity of scenarios involving occluded interactions, we introduce a diffusion-based scenario generation framework that produces realistic yet adversarial scenarios. We integrate the modeling and learning of a unified risk map into a framework that supports risk-aware planning under partial observability. Experiments on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset show that our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art occlusion-aware baseline, improving minimum time-to-collision by 0.78 times and average time-to-collision by 1.67 times. The proposed framework offers a comprehensive and practical solution for risk-aware planning in partially observable environments.

Reinforcement learning (RL) techniques have achieved impressive performance on simulated benchmarks such as Atari100k, yet recent advances remain largely confined to simulation and show limited transfer to real-world domains. A central obstacle is environmental stochasticity, as real systems involve noisy observations, unpredictable dynamics, and non-stationary conditions that undermine the stability of current methods. Existing benchmarks rarely capture these uncertainties and favor simplified settings where algorithms can be tuned to succeed. The absence of a well-defined taxonomy of stochasticity further complicates evaluation, as robustness to one type of stochastic perturbation, such as sticky actions, does not guarantee robustness to other forms of uncertainty. To address this critical gap, we introduce STORI (STOchastic-ataRI), a benchmark that systematically incorporates diverse stochastic effects and enables rigorous evaluation of RL techniques under different forms of uncertainty. We propose a comprehensive five-type taxonomy of environmental stochasticity and demonstrate systematic vulnerabilities in state-of-the-art model-based RL algorithms through targeted evaluation of DreamerV3 and STORM. Our findings reveal that world models dramatically underestimate environmental variance, struggle with action corruption, and exhibit unreliable dynamics under partial observability. We release the code and benchmark publicly at https://github.com/ARY2260/stori, providing a unified framework for developing more robust RL systems.

As embodied agents operate in increasingly complex environments, the ability to perceive, track, and reason about individual object instances over time becomes essential, especially in tasks requiring sequenced interactions with visually similar objects. In these non-Markovian settings, key decision cues are often hidden in object-specific histories rather than the current scene. Without persistent memory of prior interactions (what has been interacted with, where it has been, or how it has changed) visuomotor policies may fail, repeat past actions, or overlook completed ones. To surface this challenge, we introduce LIBERO-Mem, a non-Markovian task suite for stress-testing robotic manipulation under object-level partial observability. It combines short- and long-horizon object tracking with temporally sequenced subgoals, requiring reasoning beyond the current frame. However, vision-language-action (VLA) models often struggle in such settings, with token scaling quickly becoming intractable even for tasks spanning just a few hundred frames. We propose Embodied-SlotSSM, a slot-centric VLA framework built for temporal scalability. It maintains spatio-temporally consistent slot identities and leverages them through two mechanisms: (1) slot-state-space modeling for reconstructing short-term history, and (2) a relational encoder to align the input tokens with action decoding. Together, these components enable temporally grounded, context-aware action prediction. Experiments show Embodied-SlotSSM's baseline performance on LIBERO-Mem and general tasks, offering a scalable solution for non-Markovian reasoning in object-centric robotic policies.

The growth in the number of parameters of Large Language Models (LLMs) has led to a significant surge in computational requirements, making them challenging and costly to deploy. Speculative decoding (SD) leverages smaller models to efficiently propose future tokens, which are then verified by the LLM in parallel. Small models that utilise activations from the LLM currently achieve the fastest decoding speeds. However, we identify several limitations of SD models including the lack of on-policyness during training and partial observability. To address these shortcomings, we propose a more grounded architecture for small models by introducing a Mixture of Attentions for SD. Our novel architecture can be applied in two scenarios: a conventional single device deployment and a novel client-server deployment where the small model is hosted on a consumer device and the LLM on a server. In a single-device scenario, we demonstrate state-of-the-art speedups improving EAGLE-2 by 9.5% and its acceptance length by 25%. In a client-server setting, our experiments demonstrate: 1) state-of-the-art latencies with minimal calls to the server for different network conditions, and 2) in the event of a complete disconnection, our approach can maintain higher accuracy compared to other SD methods and demonstrates advantages over API calls to LLMs, which would otherwise be unable to continue the generation process.

Influence maximization (IM) in real platforms is challenged by incomplete, noisy social graphs and non-stationary diffusion dynamics. We propose SP-GCRL, a social-propagation-aware graph contrastive reinforcement learning framework that learns end-to-end seed selection under partial observability.We first introduce a social-propagation-aware nonlinear diffusion function to model reinforcement/diminishing effects and probability drift under repeated exposure; we then construct dual structural views and perform contrastive learning to obtain node representations robust to missing edges and weak ties, while replacing expensive strategy metrics with a GAT-based regression surrogate to improve efficiency and scalability; finally, we use DDQN to learn an end-to-end seed selection policy on top of these representations. Experiments on multiple real-world networks show that SP-GCRL achieves significant gains over heuristic and learning-based baselines across budgets and topologies, while maintaining strong large-scale scalability.

We introduce Pok\'eChamp, a minimax agent powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) for Pok\'emon battles. Built on a general framework for two-player competitive games, Pok\'eChamp leverages the generalist capabilities of LLMs to enhance minimax tree search. Specifically, LLMs replace three key modules: (1) player action sampling, (2) opponent modeling, and (3) value function estimation, enabling the agent to effectively utilize gameplay history and human knowledge to reduce the search space and address partial observability. Notably, our framework requires no additional LLM training. We evaluate Pok\'eChamp in the popular Gen 9 OU format. When powered by GPT-4o, it achieves a win rate of 76% against the best existing LLM-based bot and 84% against the strongest rule-based bot, demonstrating its superior performance. Even with an open-source 8-billion-parameter Llama 3.1 model, Pok\'eChamp consistently outperforms the previous best LLM-based bot, Pok\'ellmon powered by GPT-4o, with a 64% win rate. Pok\'eChamp attains a projected Elo of 1300-1500 on the Pok\'emon Showdown online ladder, placing it among the top 30%-10% of human players. In addition, this work compiles the largest real-player Pok\'emon battle dataset, featuring over 3 million games, including more than 500k high-Elo matches. Based on this dataset, we establish a series of battle benchmarks and puzzles to evaluate specific battling skills. We further provide key updates to the local game engine. We hope this work fosters further research that leverage Pok\'emon battle as benchmark to integrate LLM technologies with game-theoretic algorithms addressing general multiagent problems. Videos, code, and dataset available at https://sites.google.com/view/pokechamp-llm.

The framework of reinforcement learning or optimal control provides a mathematical formalization of intelligent decision making that is powerful and broadly applicable. While the general form of the reinforcement learning problem enables effective reasoning about uncertainty, the connection between reinforcement learning and inference in probabilistic models is not immediately obvious. However, such a connection has considerable value when it comes to algorithm design: formalizing a problem as probabilistic inference in principle allows us to bring to bear a wide array of approximate inference tools, extend the model in flexible and powerful ways, and reason about compositionality and partial observability. In this article, we will discuss how a generalization of the reinforcement learning or optimal control problem, which is sometimes termed maximum entropy reinforcement learning, is equivalent to exact probabilistic inference in the case of deterministic dynamics, and variational inference in the case of stochastic dynamics. We will present a detailed derivation of this framework, overview prior work that has drawn on this and related ideas to propose new reinforcement learning and control algorithms, and describe perspectives on future research.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is pivotal for the continuous evolution of GUI agents, yet existing evaluation paradigms face significant limitations. Rule-based methods suffer from poor scalability and cannot handle open-ended tasks, while LLM-as-a-Judge approaches rely on passive visual observation, often failing to capture latent system states due to partial state observability. To address these challenges, we advocate for a paradigm shift from passive evaluation to Agentic Interactive Verification. We introduce VAGEN, a framework that employs a verifier agent equipped with interaction tools to autonomously plan verification strategies and proactively probe the environment for evidence of task completion. Leveraging the insight that GUI tasks are typically "easy to verify but hard to solve", VAGEN overcomes the bottlenecks of visual limitations. Experimental results on OSWorld-Verified and AndroidWorld benchmarks demonstrate that VAGEN significantly improves evaluation accuracy compared to LLM-as-a-Judge baselines and further enhances performance through test-time scaling strategies.

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are used to model environments where the full state cannot be perceived by an agent. As such the agent needs to reason taking into account the past observations and actions. However, simply remembering the full history is generally intractable due to the exponential growth in the history space. Maintaining a probability distribution that models the belief over what the true state is can be used as a sufficient statistic of the history, but its computation requires access to the model of the environment and is often intractable. While SOTA algorithms use Recurrent Neural Networks to compress the observation-action history aiming to learn a sufficient statistic, they lack guarantees of success and can lead to sub-optimal policies. To overcome this, we propose the Wasserstein Belief Updater, an RL algorithm that learns a latent model of the POMDP and an approximation of the belief update. Our approach comes with theoretical guarantees on the quality of our approximation ensuring that our outputted beliefs allow for learning the optimal value function.

Planning under partial observability is an essential capability of autonomous robots. The Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) provides a powerful framework for planning under partial observability problems, capturing the stochastic effects of actions and the limited information available through noisy observations. POMDP solving could benefit tremendously from massive parallelization of today's hardware, but parallelizing POMDP solvers has been challenging. They rely on interleaving numerical optimization over actions with the estimation of their values, which creates dependencies and synchronization bottlenecks between parallel processes that can quickly offset the benefits of parallelization. In this paper, we propose Vectorized Online POMDP Planner (VOPP), a novel parallel online solver that leverages a recent POMDP formulation that analytically solves part of the optimization component, leaving only the estimation of expectations for numerical computation. VOPP represents all data structures related to planning as a collection of tensors and implements all planning steps as fully vectorized computations over this representation. The result is a massively parallel solver with no dependencies and synchronization bottlenecks between parallel computations. Experimental results indicate that VOPP is at least 20X more efficient in computing near-optimal solutions compared to an existing state-of-the-art parallel online solver.

Before acting upon an unobservable physical system, an autonomous agent must determine which latent distinctions govern downstream tasks, how many active interventions are necessary to certify them, and when to abstain to prevent catastrophic errors. Classical observability treats state reconstruction as an unconditioned binary predicate, failing when passive observations cannot break latent degeneracies without perturbation, full microscopic inversion is prohibitively costly, and distinguishing task-irrelevant degrees of freedom wastes interaction budgets. We formalize task-conditioned active observability complexity: the minimum worst-case expected interaction cost required to identify task-relevant states under certified error and safe abstention guarantees. We prove that task-predictive equivalence induces the unique minimal sufficient quotient H/!sim_τ, leaving active observability complexity strictly invariant while eliminating superfluous distinctions. In deterministic regimes, this complexity is characterized by an optimal adaptive distinguishing tree and Bellman recursion; in noisy regimes, it obeys a stopped-transcript relative-entropy lower bound and adaptive martingale certificates that compose without independence assumptions. We instantiate a prospective certified observer with staged recovery: a nominal verifier defers candidate compilation, triggering active probing only upon evidence, while a history-measurable score shell prunes hypotheses without sacrificing risk bounds. Stress audits across high-dimensional physical systems and thousands of operational trials demonstrate certified state recovery with zero false acceptances and substantial reductions in sensor reads and model steps.

We study reinforcement learning with function approximation for large-scale Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) where the state space and observation space are large or even continuous. Particularly, we consider Hilbert space embeddings of POMDP where the feature of latent states and the feature of observations admit a conditional Hilbert space embedding of the observation emission process, and the latent state transition is deterministic. Under the function approximation setup where the optimal latent state-action Q-function is linear in the state feature, and the optimal Q-function has a gap in actions, we provide a computationally and statistically efficient algorithm for finding the exact optimal policy. We show our algorithm's computational and statistical complexities scale polynomially with respect to the horizon and the intrinsic dimension of the feature on the observation space. Furthermore, we show both the deterministic latent transitions and gap assumptions are necessary to avoid statistical complexity exponential in horizon or dimension. Since our guarantee does not have an explicit dependence on the size of the state and observation spaces, our algorithm provably scales to large-scale POMDPs.

We consider learning to play multiplayer imperfect-information games with simultaneous moves and large state-action spaces. Previous attempts to tackle such challenging games have largely focused on model-free learning methods, often requiring hundreds of years of experience to produce competitive agents. Our approach is based on model-based planning. We tackle the problem of partial observability by first building an (oracle) planner that has access to the full state of the environment and then distilling the knowledge of the oracle to a (follower) agent which is trained to play the imperfect-information game by imitating the oracle's choices. We experimentally show that planning with naive Monte Carlo tree search does not perform very well in large combinatorial action spaces. We therefore propose planning with a fixed-depth tree search and decoupled Thompson sampling for action selection. We show that the planner is able to discover efficient playing strategies in the games of Clash Royale and Pommerman and the follower policy successfully learns to implement them by training on a few hundred battles.

POMDPs capture a broad class of decision making problems, but hardness results suggest that learning is intractable even in simple settings due to the inherent partial observability. However, in many realistic problems, more information is either revealed or can be computed during some point of the learning process. Motivated by diverse applications ranging from robotics to data center scheduling, we formulate a Hindsight Observable Markov Decision Process (HOMDP) as a POMDP where the latent states are revealed to the learner in hindsight and only during training. We introduce new algorithms for the tabular and function approximation settings that are provably sample-efficient with hindsight observability, even in POMDPs that would otherwise be statistically intractable. We give a lower bound showing that the tabular algorithm is optimal in its dependence on latent state and observation cardinalities.

Much has been said about observability in system theory and control; however, it has been recently that observability in complex networks has seriously attracted the attention of researchers. This paper examines the state-of-the-art and discusses some issues raised due to "complexity" and "stochasticity". These unresolved issues call for a new practical methodology. For stochastic systems, a degree of observability may be defined and the observability problem is not a binary (i.e., yes-no) question anymore. Here, we propose to employ a goal-seeking system to play a supervisory role in the network. Hence, improving the degree of observability would be a valid objective for the supervisory system. Towards this goal, the supervisor dynamically optimizes the observation process by reconfiguring the sensory parts in the network. A cognitive dynamic system is suggested as a proper choice for the supervisory system. In this framework, the network itself is viewed as the environment with which the cognitive dynamic system interacts. Computer experiments confirm the potential of the proposed approach for addressing some of the issues raised in networks due to complexity and stochasticity.

This paper studies the fundamental limits of reinforcement learning (RL) in the challenging partially observable setting. While it is well-established that learning in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) requires exponentially many samples in the worst case, a surge of recent work shows that polynomial sample complexities are achievable under the revealing condition -- A natural condition that requires the observables to reveal some information about the unobserved latent states. However, the fundamental limits for learning in revealing POMDPs are much less understood, with existing lower bounds being rather preliminary and having substantial gaps from the current best upper bounds. We establish strong PAC and regret lower bounds for learning in revealing POMDPs. Our lower bounds scale polynomially in all relevant problem parameters in a multiplicative fashion, and achieve significantly smaller gaps against the current best upper bounds, providing a solid starting point for future studies. In particular, for multi-step revealing POMDPs, we show that (1) the latent state-space dependence is at least Omega(S^{1.5}) in the PAC sample complexity, which is notably harder than the Theta(S) scaling for fully-observable MDPs; (2) Any polynomial sublinear regret is at least Omega(T^{2/3}), suggesting its fundamental difference from the single-step case where O(T) regret is achievable. Technically, our hard instance construction adapts techniques in distribution testing, which is new to the RL literature and may be of independent interest.

Recently, partial Bayesian neural networks (pBNNs), which only consider a subset of the parameters to be stochastic, were shown to perform competitively with full Bayesian neural networks. However, pBNNs are often multi-modal in the latent-variable space and thus challenging to approximate with parametric models. To address this problem, we propose an efficient sampling-based training strategy, wherein the training of a pBNN is formulated as simulating a Feynman--Kac model. We then describe variations of sequential Monte Carlo samplers that allow us to simultaneously estimate the parameters and the latent posterior distribution of this model at a tractable computational cost. We show on various synthetic and real-world datasets that our proposed training scheme outperforms the state of the art in terms of predictive performance.

Recent reinforcement learning (RL) methods have achieved success in various domains. However, multi-agent RL (MARL) remains a challenge in terms of decentralization, partial observability and scalability to many agents. Meanwhile, collective behavior requires resolution of the aforementioned challenges, and remains of importance to many state-of-the-art applications such as active matter physics, self-organizing systems, opinion dynamics, and biological or robotic swarms. Here, MARL via mean field control (MFC) offers a potential solution to scalability, but fails to consider decentralized and partially observable systems. In this paper, we enable decentralized behavior of agents under partial information by proposing novel models for decentralized partially observable MFC (Dec-POMFC), a broad class of problems with permutation-invariant agents allowing for reduction to tractable single-agent Markov decision processes (MDP) with single-agent RL solution. We provide rigorous theoretical results, including a dynamic programming principle, together with optimality guarantees for Dec-POMFC solutions applied to finite swarms of interest. Algorithmically, we propose Dec-POMFC-based policy gradient methods for MARL via centralized training and decentralized execution, together with policy gradient approximation guarantees. In addition, we improve upon state-of-the-art histogram-based MFC by kernel methods, which is of separate interest also for fully observable MFC. We evaluate numerically on representative collective behavior tasks such as adapted Kuramoto and Vicsek swarming models, being on par with state-of-the-art MARL. Overall, our framework takes a step towards RL-based engineering of artificial collective behavior via MFC.

This paper studies the sample-efficiency of learning in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), a challenging problem in reinforcement learning that is known to be exponentially hard in the worst-case. Motivated by real-world settings such as loading in game playing, we propose an enhanced feedback model called ``multiple observations in hindsight'', where after each episode of interaction with the POMDP, the learner may collect multiple additional observations emitted from the encountered latent states, but may not observe the latent states themselves. We show that sample-efficient learning under this feedback model is possible for two new subclasses of POMDPs: multi-observation revealing POMDPs and distinguishable POMDPs. Both subclasses generalize and substantially relax revealing POMDPs -- a widely studied subclass for which sample-efficient learning is possible under standard trajectory feedback. Notably, distinguishable POMDPs only require the emission distributions from different latent states to be different instead of linearly independent as required in revealing POMDPs.

Model-based reinforcement learning agents utilizing transformers have shown improved sample efficiency due to their ability to model extended context, resulting in more accurate world models. However, for complex reasoning and planning tasks, these methods primarily rely on continuous representations. This complicates modeling of discrete properties of the real world such as disjoint object classes between which interpolation is not plausible. In this work, we introduce discrete abstract representations for transformer-based learning (DART), a sample-efficient method utilizing discrete representations for modeling both the world and learning behavior. We incorporate a transformer-decoder for auto-regressive world modeling and a transformer-encoder for learning behavior by attending to task-relevant cues in the discrete representation of the world model. For handling partial observability, we aggregate information from past time steps as memory tokens. DART outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods that do not use look-ahead search on the Atari 100k sample efficiency benchmark with a median human-normalized score of 0.790 and beats humans in 9 out of 26 games. We release our code at https://pranaval.github.io/DART/.

Virtual sensing techniques allow for inferring signals at new unmonitored locations by exploiting spatio-temporal measurements coming from physical sensors at different locations. However, as the sensor coverage becomes sparse due to costs or other constraints, physical proximity cannot be used to support interpolation. In this paper, we overcome this challenge by leveraging dependencies between the target variable and a set of correlated variables (covariates) that can frequently be associated with each location of interest. From this viewpoint, covariates provide partial observability, and the problem consists of inferring values for unobserved channels by exploiting observations at other locations to learn how such variables can correlate. We introduce a novel graph-based methodology to exploit such relationships and design a graph deep learning architecture, named GgNet, implementing the framework. The proposed approach relies on propagating information over a nested graph structure that is used to learn dependencies between variables as well as locations. GgNet is extensively evaluated under different virtual sensing scenarios, demonstrating higher reconstruction accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art.

Learning a good history representation is one of the core challenges of reinforcement learning (RL) in partially observable environments. Recent works have shown the advantages of various auxiliary tasks for facilitating representation learning. However, the effectiveness of such auxiliary tasks has not been fully convincing, especially in partially observable environments that require long-term memorization and inference. In this empirical study, we investigate the effectiveness of future prediction for learning the representations of histories, possibly of extensive length, in partially observable environments. We first introduce an approach that decouples the task of learning history representations from policy optimization via future prediction. Then, our main contributions are two-fold: (a) we demonstrate that the performance of reinforcement learning is strongly correlated with the prediction accuracy of future observations in partially observable environments, and (b) our approach can significantly improve the overall end-to-end approach by preventing high-variance noisy signals from reinforcement learning objectives to influence the representation learning. We illustrate our claims on three types of benchmarks that necessitate the ability to process long histories for high returns.

The availability of challenging benchmarks has played a key role in the recent progress of machine learning. In cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning, the StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge (SMAC) has become a popular testbed for centralised training with decentralised execution. However, after years of sustained improvement on SMAC, algorithms now achieve near-perfect performance. In this work, we conduct new analysis demonstrating that SMAC lacks the stochasticity and partial observability to require complex *closed-loop* policies. In particular, we show that an *open-loop* policy conditioned only on the timestep can achieve non-trivial win rates for many SMAC scenarios. To address this limitation, we introduce SMACv2, a new version of the benchmark where scenarios are procedurally generated and require agents to generalise to previously unseen settings (from the same distribution) during evaluation. We also introduce the extended partial observability challenge (EPO), which augments SMACv2 to ensure meaningful partial observability. We show that these changes ensure the benchmark requires the use of *closed-loop* policies. We evaluate state-of-the-art algorithms on SMACv2 and show that it presents significant challenges not present in the original benchmark. Our analysis illustrates that SMACv2 addresses the discovered deficiencies of SMAC and can help benchmark the next generation of MARL methods. Videos of training are available at https://sites.google.com/view/smacv2.

Stochastic partial observability poses a major challenge for decentralized coordination in multi-agent reinforcement learning but is largely neglected in state-of-the-art research due to a strong focus on state-based centralized training for decentralized execution (CTDE) and benchmarks that lack sufficient stochasticity like StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge (SMAC). In this paper, we propose Attention-based Embeddings of Recurrence In multi-Agent Learning (AERIAL) to approximate value functions under stochastic partial observability. AERIAL replaces the true state with a learned representation of multi-agent recurrence, considering more accurate information about decentralized agent decisions than state-based CTDE. We then introduce MessySMAC, a modified version of SMAC with stochastic observations and higher variance in initial states, to provide a more general and configurable benchmark regarding stochastic partial observability. We evaluate AERIAL in Dec-Tiger as well as in a variety of SMAC and MessySMAC maps, and compare the results with state-based CTDE. Furthermore, we evaluate the robustness of AERIAL and state-based CTDE against various stochasticity configurations in MessySMAC.

Despite much progress in training distributed artificial intelligence (AI), building cooperative multi-agent systems with multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) faces challenges in sample efficiency, interpretability, and transferability. Unlike traditional learning-based methods that require extensive interaction with the environment, large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities in zero-shot planning and complex reasoning. However, existing LLM-based approaches heavily rely on text-based observations and struggle with the non-Markovian nature of multi-agent interactions under partial observability. We present COMPASS, a novel multi-agent architecture that integrates vision-language models (VLMs) with a dynamic skill library and structured communication for decentralized closed-loop decision-making. The skill library, bootstrapped from demonstrations, evolves via planner-guided tasks to enable adaptive strategies. COMPASS propagates entity information through multi-hop communication under partial observability. Evaluations on the improved StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge (SMACv2) demonstrate COMPASS's strong performance against state-of-the-art MARL baselines across both symmetric and asymmetric scenarios. Notably, in the symmetric Protoss 5v5 task, COMPASS achieved a 57\% win rate, representing a 30 percentage point advantage over QMIX (27\%). Project page can be found at https://stellar-entremet-1720bb.netlify.app/.

A robot's instantaneous sensory observations do not always reveal task-relevant state information. Under such partial observability, optimal behavior typically involves explicitly acting to gain the missing information. Today's standard robot learning techniques struggle to produce such active perception behaviors. We propose a simple real-world robot learning recipe to efficiently train active perception policies. Our approach, asymmetric advantage weighted regression (AAWR), exploits access to "privileged" extra sensors at training time. The privileged sensors enable training high-quality privileged value functions that aid in estimating the advantage of the target policy. Bootstrapping from a small number of potentially suboptimal demonstrations and an easy-to-obtain coarse policy initialization, AAWR quickly acquires active perception behaviors and boosts task performance. In evaluations on 8 manipulation tasks on 3 robots spanning varying degrees of partial observability, AAWR synthesizes reliable active perception behaviors that outperform all prior approaches. When initialized with a "generalist" robot policy that struggles with active perception tasks, AAWR efficiently generates information-gathering behaviors that allow it to operate under severe partial observability for manipulation tasks. Website: https://penn-pal-lab.github.io/aawr/

Dynamical models of cognition play an increasingly important role in driving theoretical and experimental research in psychology. Therefore, parameter estimation, model analysis and comparison of dynamical models are of essential importance. Here we propose a maximum-likelihood approach for model analysis in a fully dynamical framework that includes time-ordered experimental data. Our methods can be applied to dynamical models for the prediction of discrete behavior (e.g., movement onsets), in particular, we use a dynamical model of saccade generation in scene viewing as a case study for our approach. For this model, the likelihood function can be computed directly by numerical simulation, which enables more efficient parameter estimation including Bayesian inference to obtain reliable estimates and corresponding credible intervals. Using hierarchical models inference is even possible for individual observers. Furthermore, our likelihood approach can be used to compare different models. In our example, the dynamical framework is shown to outperform non-dynamical statistical models. Additionally, the likelihood based evaluation differentiates model variants, which produced indistinguishable predictions on hitherto used statistics. Our results indicate that the likelihood approach is a promising framework for dynamical cognitive models.

We study the problem of cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning with a single joint reward signal. This class of learning problems is difficult because of the often large combined action and observation spaces. In the fully centralized and decentralized approaches, we find the problem of spurious rewards and a phenomenon we call the "lazy agent" problem, which arises due to partial observability. We address these problems by training individual agents with a novel value decomposition network architecture, which learns to decompose the team value function into agent-wise value functions. We perform an experimental evaluation across a range of partially-observable multi-agent domains and show that learning such value-decompositions leads to superior results, in particular when combined with weight sharing, role information and information channels.

Many control tasks exhibit similar dynamics that can be modeled as having common latent structure. Hidden-Parameter Markov Decision Processes (HiP-MDPs) explicitly model this structure to improve sample efficiency in multi-task settings. However, this setting makes strong assumptions on the observability of the state that limit its application in real-world scenarios with rich observation spaces. In this work, we leverage ideas of common structure from the HiP-MDP setting, and extend it to enable robust state abstractions inspired by Block MDPs. We derive instantiations of this new framework for both multi-task reinforcement learning (MTRL) and meta-reinforcement learning (Meta-RL) settings. Further, we provide transfer and generalization bounds based on task and state similarity, along with sample complexity bounds that depend on the aggregate number of samples across tasks, rather than the number of tasks, a significant improvement over prior work that use the same environment assumptions. To further demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method, we empirically compare and show improvement over multi-task and meta-reinforcement learning baselines.

The Koopman operator provides a powerful framework for modeling dynamical systems and has attracted growing interest from the machine learning community. However, its infinite-dimensional nature makes identifying suitable finite-dimensional subspaces challenging, especially for deep architectures. We argue that these difficulties come from suboptimal representation learning, where latent variables fail to balance expressivity and simplicity. This tension is closely related to the information bottleneck (IB) dilemma: constructing compressed representations that are both compact and predictive. Rethinking Koopman learning through this lens, we demonstrate that latent mutual information promotes simplicity, yet an overemphasis on simplicity may cause latent space to collapse onto a few dominant modes. In contrast, expressiveness is sustained by the von Neumann entropy, which prevents such collapse and encourages mode diversity. This insight leads us to propose an information-theoretic Lagrangian formulation that explicitly balances this tradeoff. Furthermore, we propose a new algorithm based on the Lagrangian formulation that encourages both simplicity and expressiveness, leading to a stable and interpretable Koopman representation. Beyond quantitative evaluations, we further visualize the learned manifolds under our representations, observing empirical results consistent with our theoretical predictions. Finally, we validate our approach across a diverse range of dynamical systems, demonstrating improved performance over existing Koopman learning methods. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/Wenxuan52/InformationKoopman.

Autonomous systems often operate in environments where the behavior of multiple agents is coordinated by a shared global state. Reliable estimation of the global state is thus critical for successfully operating in a multi-agent setting. We introduce agent-aware state estimation -- a framework for calculating indirect estimations of state given observations of the behavior of other agents in the environment. We also introduce transition-independent agent-aware state estimation -- a tractable class of agent-aware state estimation -- and show that it allows the speed of inference to scale linearly with the number of agents in the environment. As an example, we model traffic light classification in instances of complete loss of direct observation. By taking into account observations of vehicular behavior from multiple directions of traffic, our approach exhibits accuracy higher than that of existing traffic light-only HMM methods on a real-world autonomous vehicle data set under a variety of simulated occlusion scenarios.

Auto-regressive models have emerged as powerful tools for sequential data, from language to video. Understanding how and why these models learn latent representations remains an open theoretical question. In this work, we demonstrate that when trained by empirical risk minimization on data from partially observed linear dynamical systems, two-layer linear auto-regressive models naturally learn to approximate Kalman filtering. In particular, we show that the learned hidden representation coincides, up to a similarity transformation, with the state estimates produced by the optimal (Kalman) filter, even though the model has no explicit knowledge of the underlying dynamics or state. The result follows from three main insights. First, we establish that the Kalman filter is well approximated by an auto-regressive model with bounded truncation error. Second, we show that despite non-convexity, the two-layer optimization landscape is benign, i.e., all stationary points are either strict saddles or global minima. Finally, as our main contributions, we provide finite-sample guarantees on prediction error, parameter estimation error, and latent state recovery. Numerical simulations support the theoretical results and demonstrate that the latent representations of auto-regressive models recover state estimates.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

Modern enterprises generate vast streams of time series metrics when monitoring complex systems, known as observability data. Unlike conventional time series from domains such as weather, observability data are zero-inflated, highly stochastic, and exhibit minimal temporal structure. Despite their importance, observability datasets are underrepresented in public benchmarks due to proprietary restrictions. Existing datasets are often anonymized and normalized, removing scale information and limiting their use for tasks beyond forecasting, such as anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and multi-modal reasoning. To address this gap, we introduce TelecomTS, a large-scale observability dataset derived from a 5G telecommunications network. TelecomTS features heterogeneous, de-anonymized covariates with explicit scale information and supports a suite of downstream tasks, including anomaly detection, root-cause analysis, and a question-answering benchmark requiring multi-modal reasoning. Benchmarking state-of-the-art time series, language, and reasoning models reveals that existing approaches struggle with the abrupt, noisy, and high-variance dynamics of observability data. Our experiments also underscore the importance of preserving covariates' absolute scale, emphasizing the need for foundation time series models that natively leverage scale information for practical observability applications.

The general sequential decision-making problem, which includes Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) as special cases, aims at maximizing a cumulative reward by making a sequence of decisions based on a history of observations and actions over time. Recent studies have shown that the sequential decision-making problem is statistically learnable if it admits a low-rank structure modeled by predictive state representations (PSRs). Despite these advancements, existing approaches typically involve oracles or steps that are computationally intractable. On the other hand, the upper confidence bound (UCB) based approaches, which have served successfully as computationally efficient methods in bandits and MDPs, have not been investigated for more general PSRs, due to the difficulty of optimistic bonus design in these more challenging settings. This paper proposes the first known UCB-type approach for PSRs, featuring a novel bonus term that upper bounds the total variation distance between the estimated and true models. We further characterize the sample complexity bounds for our designed UCB-type algorithms for both online and offline PSRs. In contrast to existing approaches for PSRs, our UCB-type algorithms enjoy computational tractability, last-iterate guaranteed near-optimal policy, and guaranteed model accuracy.

Selective state space models (SSM), such as Mamba, have gained prominence for their effectiveness in modeling sequential data. Despite their outstanding empirical performance, a comprehensive theoretical understanding of deep selective SSM remains elusive, hindering their further development and adoption for applications that need high fidelity. In this paper, we investigate the dynamical properties of tokens in a pre-trained Mamba model. In particular, we derive the dynamical system governing the continuous-time limit of the Mamba model and characterize the asymptotic behavior of its solutions. In the one-dimensional case, we prove that only one of the following two scenarios happens: either all tokens converge to zero, or all tokens diverge to infinity. We provide criteria based on model parameters to determine when each scenario occurs. For the convergent scenario, we empirically verify that this scenario negatively impacts the model's performance. For the divergent scenario, we prove that different tokens will diverge to infinity at different rates, thereby contributing unequally to the updates during model training. Based on these investigations, we propose two refinements for the model: excluding the convergent scenario and reordering tokens based on their importance scores, both aimed at improving practical performance. Our experimental results validate these refinements, offering insights into enhancing Mamba's effectiveness in real-world applications.

When the environment is partially observable (PO), a deep reinforcement learning (RL) agent must learn a suitable temporal representation of the entire history in addition to a strategy to control. This problem is not novel, and there have been model-free and model-based algorithms proposed for this problem. However, inspired by recent success in model-free image-based RL, we noticed the absence of a model-free baseline for history-based RL that (1) uses full history and (2) incorporates recent advances in off-policy continuous control. Therefore, we implement recurrent versions of DDPG, TD3, and SAC (RDPG, RTD3, and RSAC) in this work, evaluate them on short-term and long-term PO domains, and investigate key design choices. Our experiments show that RDPG and RTD3 can surprisingly fail on some domains and that RSAC is the most reliable, reaching near-optimal performance on nearly all domains. However, one task that requires systematic exploration still proved to be difficult, even for RSAC. These results show that model-free RL can learn good temporal representation using only reward signals; the primary difficulty seems to be computational cost and exploration. To facilitate future research, we have made our PyTorch implementation publicly available at https://github.com/zhihanyang2022/off-policy-continuous-control.

In a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), an agent typically uses a representation of the past to approximate the underlying MDP. We propose to utilize a frozen Pretrained Language Transformer (PLT) for history representation and compression to improve sample efficiency. To avoid training of the Transformer, we introduce FrozenHopfield, which automatically associates observations with pretrained token embeddings. To form these associations, a modern Hopfield network stores these token embeddings, which are retrieved by queries that are obtained by a random but fixed projection of observations. Our new method, HELM, enables actor-critic network architectures that contain a pretrained language Transformer for history representation as a memory module. Since a representation of the past need not be learned, HELM is much more sample efficient than competitors. On Minigrid and Procgen environments HELM achieves new state-of-the-art results. Our code is available at https://github.com/ml-jku/helm.

The Mamba layer offers an efficient selective state space model (SSM) that is highly effective in modeling multiple domains including NLP, long-range sequences processing, and computer vision. Selective SSMs are viewed as dual models, in which one trains in parallel on the entire sequence via IO-aware parallel scan, and deploys in an autoregressive manner. We add a third view and show that such models can be viewed as attention-driven models. This new perspective enables us to compare the underlying mechanisms to that of the self-attention layers in transformers and allows us to peer inside the inner workings of the Mamba model with explainability methods. Our code is publicly available.

Planning in textual environments have been shown to be a long-standing challenge even for current models. A recent, promising line of work uses LLMs to generate a formal representation of the environment that can be solved by a symbolic planner. However, existing methods rely on a fully-observed environment where all entity states are initially known, so a one-off representation can be constructed, leading to a complete plan. In contrast, we tackle partially-observed environments where there is initially no sufficient information to plan for the end-goal. We propose PDDLEGO that iteratively construct a planning representation that can lead to a partial plan for a given sub-goal. By accomplishing the sub-goal, more information is acquired to augment the representation, eventually achieving the end-goal. We show that plans produced by few-shot PDDLEGO are 43% more efficient than generating plans end-to-end on the Coin Collector simulation, with strong performance (98%) on the more complex Cooking World simulation where end-to-end LLMs fail to generate coherent plans (4%).

We introduce Adaptive LeWorldModel (ALeWM), a world model based on a joint-embedding predictive architecture (JEPA) that learns to concentrate predictive information in compact prefixes of a wide latent representation. To encourage this ordering, ALeWM learns a sequence-conditioned distribution over prefix lengths and trains the predictor to estimate the full next embedding from a sampled input prefix. As standard anti-collapse objectives encourage variation across latent coordinates and do not organize them by predictive importance, we also introduce MixSIGReg. MixSIGReg regularizes the masked embeddings against a prior-weighted mixture with Gaussian active prefixes and zeros in the remaining coordinates. As a result, the ALeWM objective encourages early coordinates to retain information useful for prediction and recursive planning. Our analysis shows that the mixture distribution used by MixSIGReg assigns higher variance to earlier coordinate blocks and lower variance to later ones. In addition, we show that, under specified assumptions, prediction error is minimized by placing the information most useful for prediction in earlier blocks. Empirically, we study the behavior of ALeWM in a controlled dynamical system with known state variables and in goal-conditioned visual control. We show that ALeWM consistently achieves higher mean success rates than tuned fixed-width LeWM, with lower planning capacity on average.

We verify that persistent observers in causally invariant hypergraph substrates satisfy the conditions of the Conant-Ashby Good Regulator Theorem. Building on Wolfram's hypergraph physics and Vanchurin's neural network cosmology, we formalize persistent observers as entities that minimize prediction error at their boundary with the environment. Applying a modern reformulation of the Conant-Ashby theorem, we demonstrate that hypergraph observers satisfy Good Regulator conditions, requiring them to maintain internal models. Once an internal model with loss function exists, the emergence of a Fisher information metric follows from standard information geometry. Invoking Amari's uniqueness theorem for reparameterization-invariant gradients, we show that natural gradient descent is the unique admissible learning rule. Under the ansatz M=F^2 for exponential family observers and one specific convergence time functional, we derive a closed-form formula for the regime parameter alpha in Vanchurin's Type II framework, with a quantum-classical threshold at kappa(F)=2. However, three alternative convergence models do not reproduce this result, so this prediction is strongly model-dependent. We further introduce the directional regime parameter alpha_{v_k} and the trace-free deviation tensor, showing that a single observer can simultaneously occupy different Vanchurin regimes along different eigendirections of the Fisher metric. This connects Wolfram and Vanchurin frameworks through established theorems, providing approximately 25-30% novel contribution.

Recent work has shown that, under certain assumptions, zero-shot reinforcement learning (RL) methods can generalise to any unseen task in an environment after reward-free pre-training. Access to Markov states is one such assumption, yet, in many real-world applications, the Markov state is only partially observable. Here, we explore how the performance of standard zero-shot RL methods degrades when subjected to partially observability, and show that, as in single-task RL, memory-based architectures are an effective remedy. We evaluate our memory-based zero-shot RL methods in domains where the states, rewards and a change in dynamics are partially observed, and show improved performance over memory-free baselines. Our code is open-sourced via: https://enjeeneer.io/projects/bfms-with-memory/.

We study nonlinear filtering with misspecified initial distributions and dynamics, but a correctly specified observation model. Observations are treated as a random process generated by the true model, rather than as fixed realizations, and both the correct filter and the misspecified filter are analyzed under this common observation law. Our main result is a Bayesian total variation balance identity for the expected change in total variation distance under a Bayesian update: a covariance term minus a non-negative remainder. The identity characterizes conditional and averaged update non-expansivity. Combined with prediction contraction, it yields finite-time bounds separating the initialization error from accumulated dynamical discrepancies, while allowing expansive updates. When the averaged updates are non-expansive and a uniform joint prediction--update coefficient is less than one, a persistent dynamical misspecification yields an asymptotic error bound proportional to the one-step discrepancy. When the conditional updates are non-expansive, we characterize an accumulated joint contraction that implies almost-sure and \(L^1\) coalescence of the true and misspecified filters. Finally, we verify update non-expansivity for scalar Gaussian predictive laws under a variance-ordering condition and, separately, derive explicit prediction contraction bounds for truncated kernels and bounded transition functions with elliptically symmetric noise.

This monograph develops a unified account of training and inference in Power Law Decoder Representation language models (PLDR-LLMs). Exact finite work identities decompose changes in the absolute energy of the row-centered learned map into parameter contributions, signed interactions, and numerical observation defects. Positive affine blocking retains restarts at the row-constant face, while the augmented AdamW state supplies the complete dynamical description. Predictive renormalization acts on the complete conditional training law for a single pass over distinct corpus target blocks, retaining optimizer memory, remaining data, schedule, and numerical policy. Autonomous reductions require closure; approximate reductions carry successor and emission errors. Finite-population covariance, matched physical clocks, matrix fluxes, and signed temporal energy connect row dynamics to model-wide observations. Absolute row collapse, relative row concentration, operator stabilization, and predictive accuracy are distinguished. Experiments reveal observer and optimizer dependence, reject the tested autonomous row-state candidates, and support finite conditional prediction and state-specific operator reduction. Independent single-pass families exhibit moving finite fluctuation regions without establishing a thermodynamic critical class. Conditional symmetry, head limits, covariance flows, and readout error budgets specify assumptions needed to transfer scaling laws to inference. The theory separates exact identities, conditional dynamical claims, and finite empirical findings, with proofs, selected formal checks, and compact numerical evidence.

Structured state space sequence (S4) models have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance on long-range sequence modeling tasks. These models also have fast inference speeds and parallelisable training, making them potentially useful in many reinforcement learning settings. We propose a modification to a variant of S4 that enables us to initialise and reset the hidden state in parallel, allowing us to tackle reinforcement learning tasks. We show that our modified architecture runs asymptotically faster than Transformers in sequence length and performs better than RNN's on a simple memory-based task. We evaluate our modified architecture on a set of partially-observable environments and find that, in practice, our model outperforms RNN's while also running over five times faster. Then, by leveraging the model's ability to handle long-range sequences, we achieve strong performance on a challenging meta-learning task in which the agent is given a randomly-sampled continuous control environment, combined with a randomly-sampled linear projection of the environment's observations and actions. Furthermore, we show the resulting model can adapt to out-of-distribution held-out tasks. Overall, the results presented in this paper show that structured state space models are fast and performant for in-context reinforcement learning tasks. We provide code at https://github.com/luchris429/popjaxrl.

Representation learning and exploration are among the key challenges for any deep reinforcement learning agent. In this work, we provide a singular value decomposition based method that can be used to obtain representations that preserve the underlying transition structure in the domain. Perhaps interestingly, we show that these representations also capture the relative frequency of state visitations, thereby providing an estimate for pseudo-counts for free. To scale this decomposition method to large-scale domains, we provide an algorithm that never requires building the transition matrix, can make use of deep networks, and also permits mini-batch training. Further, we draw inspiration from predictive state representations and extend our decomposition method to partially observable environments. With experiments on multi-task settings with partially observable domains, we show that the proposed method can not only learn useful representation on DM-Lab-30 environments (that have inputs involving language instructions, pixel images, and rewards, among others) but it can also be effective at hard exploration tasks in DM-Hard-8 environments.

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number of latent variables in the model and the strong temporal dependencies between them. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in Bayesian GPSSMs, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous approaches, namely over-simplified assumptions, and high computational requirements. Our method is based on free-form variational inference via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo within the inducing-variable formalism. Furthermore, by exploiting our proposed variational distribution, we provide a collapsed extension of our method where the inducing variables are marginalized analytically. We also showcase results when combining our framework with particle MCMC methods. We show that, on six real-world datasets, our approach can learn transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.

Despite their stellar performance on a wide range of tasks, including in-context tasks only revealed during inference, vanilla transformers and variants trained for next-token predictions (a) do not learn an explicit world model of their environment which can be flexibly queried and (b) cannot be used for planning or navigation. In this paper, we consider partially observed environments (POEs), where an agent receives perceptually aliased observations as it navigates, which makes path planning hard. We introduce a transformer with (multiple) discrete bottleneck(s), TDB, whose latent codes learn a compressed representation of the history of observations and actions. After training a TDB to predict the future observation(s) given the history, we extract interpretable cognitive maps of the environment from its active bottleneck(s) indices. These maps are then paired with an external solver to solve (constrained) path planning problems. First, we show that a TDB trained on POEs (a) retains the near perfect predictive performance of a vanilla transformer or an LSTM while (b) solving shortest path problems exponentially faster. Second, a TDB extracts interpretable representations from text datasets, while reaching higher in-context accuracy than vanilla sequence models. Finally, in new POEs, a TDB (a) reaches near-perfect in-context accuracy, (b) learns accurate in-context cognitive maps (c) solves in-context path planning problems.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as identifiability. A recent breakthrough explores identifiability by leveraging the change of causal influences among latent causal variables across multiple environments liu2022identifying. However, this progress rests on the assumption that the causal relationships among latent causal variables adhere strictly to linear Gaussian models. In this paper, we extend the scope of latent causal models to involve nonlinear causal relationships, represented by polynomial models, and general noise distributions conforming to the exponential family. Additionally, we investigate the necessity of imposing changes on all causal parameters and present partial identifiability results when part of them remains unchanged. Further, we propose a novel empirical estimation method, grounded in our theoretical finding, that enables learning consistent latent causal representations. Our experimental results, obtained from both synthetic and real-world data, validate our theoretical contributions concerning identifiability and consistency.

Multiple types of inference are available for probabilistic graphical models, e.g., marginal, maximum-a-posteriori, and even marginal maximum-a-posteriori. Which one do researchers mean when they talk about ``planning as inference''? There is no consistency in the literature, different types are used, and their ability to do planning is further entangled with specific approximations or additional constraints. In this work we use the variational framework to show that, just like all commonly used types of inference correspond to different weightings of the entropy terms in the variational problem, planning corresponds exactly to a different set of weights. This means that all the tricks of variational inference are readily applicable to planning. We develop an analogue of loopy belief propagation that allows us to perform approximate planning in factored-state Markov decisions processes without incurring intractability due to the exponentially large state space. The variational perspective shows that the previous types of inference for planning are only adequate in environments with low stochasticity, and allows us to characterize each type by its own merits, disentangling the type of inference from the additional approximations that its practical use requires. We validate these results empirically on synthetic MDPs and tasks posed in the International Planning Competition.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

We introduce physics informed neural networks -- neural networks that are trained to solve supervised learning tasks while respecting any given law of physics described by general nonlinear partial differential equations. In this two part treatise, we present our developments in the context of solving two main classes of problems: data-driven solution and data-driven discovery of partial differential equations. Depending on the nature and arrangement of the available data, we devise two distinct classes of algorithms, namely continuous time and discrete time models. The resulting neural networks form a new class of data-efficient universal function approximators that naturally encode any underlying physical laws as prior information. In this first part, we demonstrate how these networks can be used to infer solutions to partial differential equations, and obtain physics-informed surrogate models that are fully differentiable with respect to all input coordinates and free parameters.

In real-world applications of reinforcement learning, it is often challenging to obtain a state representation that is parsimonious and satisfies the Markov property without prior knowledge. Consequently, it is common practice to construct a state larger than necessary, e.g., by concatenating measurements over contiguous time points. However, needlessly increasing the dimension of the state may slow learning and obfuscate the learned policy. We introduce the notion of a minimal sufficient state in a Markov decision process (MDP) as the subvector of the original state under which the process remains an MDP and shares the same reward function as the original process. We propose a novel SEquEntial Knockoffs (SEEK) algorithm that estimates the minimal sufficient state in a system with high-dimensional complex nonlinear dynamics. In large samples, the proposed method achieves selection consistency. As the method is agnostic to the reinforcement learning algorithm being applied, it benefits downstream tasks such as policy learning. Empirical experiments verify theoretical results and show the proposed approach outperforms several competing methods regarding variable selection accuracy and regret.

We generalise an existing construction of Bayesian Lenses to admit lenses between pairs of objects where the backwards object is dependent on states on the forwards object (interpreted as probability distributions). This gives a natural setting for studying stochastic maps with Bayesian inverses restricted to the points supported by a given prior. In order to state this formally we develop a proposed definition by Fritz of a support object in a Markov category and show that these give rise to a section into the category of dependent Bayesian lenses encoding a more canonical notion of Bayesian inversion.

In this paper we develop a dynamic form of Bayesian optimization for machine learning models with the goal of rapidly finding good hyperparameter settings. Our method uses the partial information gained during the training of a machine learning model in order to decide whether to pause training and start a new model, or resume the training of a previously-considered model. We specifically tailor our method to machine learning problems by developing a novel positive-definite covariance kernel to capture a variety of training curves. Furthermore, we develop a Gaussian process prior that scales gracefully with additional temporal observations. Finally, we provide an information-theoretic framework to automate the decision process. Experiments on several common machine learning models show that our approach is extremely effective in practice.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild differentiability conditions, even works in the intractable case. Our contributions are two-fold. First, we show that a reparameterization of the variational lower bound yields a lower bound estimator that can be straightforwardly optimized using standard stochastic gradient methods. Second, we show that for i.i.d. datasets with continuous latent variables per datapoint, posterior inference can be made especially efficient by fitting an approximate inference model (also called a recognition model) to the intractable posterior using the proposed lower bound estimator. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.

How do we tell a world model what information to preserve? We study this question through the lens of spectral representation learning. We introduce SpecWM, a JEPA framework that explicitly specifies desired relationships between observations through a target similarity kernel and trains the encoder to reproduce those relationships in its embedding geometry. Different kernels provide different supervision, ranging from physical state information to a fully self-supervised temporal kernel requiring only the ordering of observations within trajectories. We characterize the global optima of the objective, establish conditions for linear recoverability and invariance to nuisance information, and connect temporal-kernel similarity to the behavioral successor measure under an idealized setting. Empirically, the choice of kernel strongly controls which physical quantities are recoverable from the representation. More importantly, temporal spectral alignment improves CEM planning success over LeWorldModel from 52% to 68% on OGBench Cube, 49% to 77% on OGBench Scene, and 29% to 51% on CALVIN. These results suggest that explicitly specifying representation geometry provides a simple way to steer what latent world models preserve for control.

Can we learn more from data than existed in the generating process itself? Can new and useful information be constructed from merely applying deterministic transformations to existing data? Can the learnable content in data be evaluated without considering a downstream task? On these questions, Shannon information and Kolmogorov complexity come up nearly empty-handed, in part because they assume observers with unlimited computational capacity and fail to target the useful information content. In this work, we identify and exemplify three seeming paradoxes in information theory: (1) information cannot be increased by deterministic transformations; (2) information is independent of the order of data; (3) likelihood modeling is merely distribution matching. To shed light on the tension between these results and modern practice, and to quantify the value of data, we introduce epiplexity, a formalization of information capturing what computationally bounded observers can learn from data. Epiplexity captures the structural content in data while excluding time-bounded entropy, the random unpredictable content exemplified by pseudorandom number generators and chaotic dynamical systems. With these concepts, we demonstrate how information can be created with computation, how it depends on the ordering of the data, and how likelihood modeling can produce more complex programs than present in the data generating process itself. We also present practical procedures to estimate epiplexity which we show capture differences across data sources, track with downstream performance, and highlight dataset interventions that improve out-of-distribution generalization. In contrast to principles of model selection, epiplexity provides a theoretical foundation for data selection, guiding how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems.

This paper addresses the general problem of reinforcement learning (RL) in partially observable environments. In 2013, our large RL recurrent neural networks (RNNs) learned from scratch to drive simulated cars from high-dimensional video input. However, real brains are more powerful in many ways. In particular, they learn a predictive model of their initially unknown environment, and somehow use it for abstract (e.g., hierarchical) planning and reasoning. Guided by algorithmic information theory, we describe RNN-based AIs (RNNAIs) designed to do the same. Such an RNNAI can be trained on never-ending sequences of tasks, some of them provided by the user, others invented by the RNNAI itself in a curious, playful fashion, to improve its RNN-based world model. Unlike our previous model-building RNN-based RL machines dating back to 1990, the RNNAI learns to actively query its model for abstract reasoning and planning and decision making, essentially "learning to think." The basic ideas of this report can be applied to many other cases where one RNN-like system exploits the algorithmic information content of another. They are taken from a grant proposal submitted in Fall 2014, and also explain concepts such as "mirror neurons." Experimental results will be described in separate papers.

Long-horizon manipulation is partially observable: the information needed to choose the next action may appear only in observations from minutes earlier. Existing memory mechanisms: retrieval banks, learned compressors, recurrent states must decide what to keep from the past before knowing what a future decision will require. This was motivated by the assumption that minute-scale history is too large to process directly, which modern VLM backbones no longer make true. In this work, we introduce SimpleMemVLA, a VLA without a dedicated memory module. It keeps the sampled history intact and passes it to the backbone in the timestamped video format the backbone was pretrained to process; the hidden states of a generated sub-task then form the only channel from history to a standard flow-matching action head. Since consecutive decisions share most of their history, prefilling the shared prefix during action execution keeps latency close to a single-frame VLA. SimpleMemVLA sets a new state of the art on four memory benchmarks without cost on general-purpose control. Holding the backbone and training setup fixed, it outperforms retrieval, compression and recurrent-state mechanisms by a wide margin, and causal interventions confirm that the policy genuinely reads its history. Code available at https://github.com/wadeKeith/SimpleMemVLA

Imitation from observation is a computational technique that teaches an agent on how to mimic the behavior of an expert by observing only the sequence of states from the expert demonstrations. Recent approaches learn the inverse dynamics of the environment and an imitation policy by interleaving epochs of both models while changing the demonstration data. However, such approaches often get stuck into sub-optimal solutions that are distant from the expert, limiting their imitation effectiveness. We address this problem with a novel approach that overcomes the problem of reaching bad local minima by exploring: (I) a self-attention mechanism that better captures global features of the states; and (ii) a sampling strategy that regulates the observations that are used for learning. We show empirically that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches in four different environments by a large margin.

Multi-robot collaboration could enable more efficient and scalable solutions to complex robotic tasks, but collaboration under partial observability remains challenging. Natural-language communication offers a promising approach to coordinating robots under partial observability. However, in decentralized manipulation, jointly learning explicit inter-robot communication and skill-level action selection from multimodal demonstrations remains underexplored for small vision-language models (VLMs) intended for on-device deployment. To address this gap, we introduce RoboTalk, a synthetic data-generation pipeline and dataset of 7,950 multimodal trajectories spanning 53 mobile-manipulation kitchen tasks for training small VLMs to communicate and coordinate. The dataset includes a leader-follower planning protocol, tool calls (perception, manipulation, navigation, and communication), rationale traces, and diversified natural-language communication. Fine-tuning open-source models on our dataset can reach 77% success on novel held-out tasks, a significant improvement over the untuned open source models, which had a success rate of around ~2%.

We study the behavior of deterministic methods for solving inverse problems in imaging. These methods are commonly designed to achieve two goals: (1) attaining high perceptual quality, and (2) generating reconstructions that are consistent with the measurements. We provide a rigorous proof that the better a predictor satisfies these two requirements, the larger its Lipschitz constant must be, regardless of the nature of the degradation involved. In particular, to approach perfect perceptual quality and perfect consistency, the Lipschitz constant of the model must grow to infinity. This implies that such methods are necessarily more susceptible to adversarial attacks. We demonstrate our theory on single image super-resolution algorithms, addressing both noisy and noiseless settings. We also show how this undesired behavior can be leveraged to explore the posterior distribution, thereby allowing the deterministic model to imitate stochastic methods.

Classical state estimation algorithms rely on predefined target's state-space model, which complicates model derivation and limits adaptability when system dynamics change. Neural network based estimators offer a data-driven alternative, but rarely fuse classical estimation theory into their structure and demand large, pre-computed training sets. To overcome these limitations, we propose a unified state-space structure without target's state-space model and treats both the input-layer activations and all network weights as latent states to be estimated online. We instantiate this nonlinear model with three canonical estimators-the extended Kalman estimator, the unscented Kalman estimator, and the particle estimator to simulate different neural network and demonstrate its generality. We then benchmark our approach against seven leading neural network estimators across three representative scenarios. Results show that our neural network state-space estimators not only retain the robust learning capability, but also match or exceed the accuracy of both classical and pre-trained neural network methods. Code, data, and more result: github.com/ShineMinxing/PaperNNSSE.git

Understanding a dynamical world calls for more than a latent state that summarizes its observations: the state should also be organized into the factors that stay shared across related observations and the factors that vary between them. For example, a robot pushing a cube to a goal should take the same action when the camera shifts or the lights dim, since nothing in the scene has moved. Existing approaches to this decomposition commonly obtain it through reconstruction, so the latent variables must first explain the entire observational world before their organization can be trusted. Joint embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) model the latent state directly and never reconstruct, yet no existing result recovers the invariant and variant parts of the state they learn. How to learn the invariant-variant structure of the latent world without paying for its reconstruction therefore remains open. To close this gap, we introduce SplitJEPA, a JEPA that jointly recovers the latent state and its invariant and variant organization directly in representation space, without any reconstruction. We prove that, under stationary Gaussian predictive dynamics and a full-rank variation condition, SplitJEPA identifies the invariant and variant subspaces up to independent block-wise isometries, without introducing an observation decoder. Since the guarantee needs no decoder, the result extends reconstruction-free latent recovery to invariant-variant block identification. Experiments on synthetic nonlinear systems and robotic manipulation tasks support the theoretical results and show their practical value for both robustness and efficiency.

In meta reinforcement learning (meta RL), an agent seeks a Bayes-optimal policy -- the optimal policy when facing an unknown task that is sampled from some known task distribution. Previous approaches tackled this problem by inferring a belief over task parameters, using variational inference methods. Motivated by recent successes of contrastive learning approaches in RL, such as contrastive predictive coding (CPC), we investigate whether contrastive methods can be used for learning Bayes-optimal behavior. We begin by proving that representations learned by CPC are indeed sufficient for Bayes optimality. Based on this observation, we propose a simple meta RL algorithm that uses CPC in lieu of variational belief inference. Our method, ContraBAR, achieves comparable performance to state-of-the-art in domains with state-based observation and circumvents the computational toll of future observation reconstruction, enabling learning in domains with image-based observations. It can also be combined with image augmentations for domain randomization and used seamlessly in both online and offline meta RL settings.

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) is a promising paradigm for improving large language model (LLM) agents on long-horizon interactive tasks. However, in partially observable environments, incomplete observations cause agent beliefs to drift over time, while delayed rewards obscure the causal impact of intermediate decisions, exacerbating temporal credit assignment challenges. To address this, we propose ReBel (Reward Belief), a process-level reinforcement learning algorithm that explicitly models structured belief states to summarize interaction history and guide subsequent policy learning. ReBel introduces belief-consistency supervision, converting discrepancies between predicted beliefs and observed feedback into dense self-supervised signals without requiring external step-wise annotations or verifiers. It also employs belief-aware grouping to compare trajectories under similar belief states, yielding more robust and lower-variance advantage estimates. We evaluate ReBel on challenging long-horizon benchmarks, including ALFWorld and WebShop. ReBel improves task success by up to 20.4 percentage points over the episode-level baseline GRPO and increases sample efficiency by 2.1times. These results suggest that belief-aware self-supervision is a promising direction for reliable long-horizon decision-making under partial observability. Code is available at: https://github.com/Fateyetian/Rebel.git.

Partial label learning (PLL) aims to train multiclass classifiers from the examples each annotated with a set of candidate labels where a fixed but unknown candidate label is correct. In the last few years, the instance-independent generation process of candidate labels has been extensively studied, on the basis of which many theoretical advances have been made in PLL. Nevertheless, the candidate labels are always instance-dependent in practice and there is no theoretical guarantee that the model trained on the instance-dependent PLL examples can converge to an ideal one. In this paper, a theoretically grounded and practically effective approach named POP, i.e. PrOgressive Purification for instance-dependent partial label learning, is proposed. Specifically, POP updates the learning model and purifies each candidate label set progressively in every epoch. Theoretically, we prove that POP enlarges the region appropriately fast where the model is reliable, and eventually approximates the Bayes optimal classifier with mild assumptions. Technically, POP is flexible with arbitrary PLL losses and could improve the performance of the previous PLL losses in the instance-dependent case. Experiments on the benchmark datasets and the real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Perception for action suggests that representations of the world should be shaped not by visual fidelity alone, but by their relevance for actions. At the same time, latent JEPA-style world models advocate learning compact predictive states from high-dimensional observations to facilitate the prediction of future states, but end-to-end training of these models is nontrivial because representations may collapse if our only goal is to construct a latent state that is easy to predict. We introduce a sensorimotor world model (SMWM): a latent world model trained end-to-end with inverse dynamics regularization. This single regularizer addresses both issues: it prevents representation collapse and induces action-aligned representations. By forcing latent states to preserve information about the action underlying a transition, it biases the model toward the controllable degrees of freedom of the environment while discarding uncontrollable distractors. This yields stable latent world models trained from offline, reward-free trajectories, without frozen encoders, exponential moving averages, or complex latent regularizers. Empirically, SMWM learns compact, interpretable latent spaces and enables competitive planning performance across simple 2D and 3D control tasks.