Daily Papers

Dynamic 3D Gaussian splatting faces a fundamental tension between motion consistency and visual fidelity. Deformation-based approaches preserve temporal correspondence but suffer from motion over-factorization, oversmoothing high-frequency dynamics. In contrast, 4D-primitive methods capture fine visual details yet incur temporal overparameterization, breaking object identity and leading to severe storage overhead. To resolve this, we introduce Multi4D, a framework for high-fidelity dynamic Gaussian Splatting based on multi-level competitive allocation. Instead of a monolithic representation, we distribute modeling capacity across three structured levels: static structure, persistent dynamic geometry, and transient appearance primitives. Through shared rasterization and residual-driven optimization, these levels dynamically compete to explain photometric error, enabling adaptive specialization without pre-assigned decomposition. This allocation preserves long-term motion consistency while capturing fine dynamic detail, achieving state-of-the-art rendering quality and real-time performance with significantly fewer dynamic primitives. Furthermore, because our representation explicitly tracks compact persistent Gaussians over time, semantic features can be embedded afterward, enabling Multi4D to achieve state-of-the-art 4D segmentation accuracy with an order-of-magnitude speedup. Project page: https://batfacewayne.github.io/Multi4D.io/

Temporal Difference (TD) algorithms are widely used in Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL). Their performance is heavily influenced by the size of the neural network. While in supervised learning, the regime of over-parameterization and its benefits are well understood, the situation in RL is much less clear. In this paper, we present a theoretical analysis of the influence of network size and l_2-regularization on performance. We identify the ratio between the number of parameters and the number of visited states as a crucial factor and define over-parameterization as the regime when it is larger than one. Furthermore, we observe a double descent phenomenon, i.e., a sudden drop in performance around the parameter/state ratio of one. Leveraging random features and the lazy training regime, we study the regularized Least-Square Temporal Difference (LSTD) algorithm in an asymptotic regime, as both the number of parameters and states go to infinity, maintaining a constant ratio. We derive deterministic limits of both the empirical and the true Mean-Squared Bellman Error (MSBE) that feature correction terms responsible for the double descent. Correction terms vanish when the l_2-regularization is increased or the number of unvisited states goes to zero. Numerical experiments with synthetic and small real-world environments closely match the theoretical predictions.

LLM-for-time series (TS) methods typically treat time shallowly, injecting positional or prompt-based cues once at the input of a largely frozen decoder, which limits temporal reasoning as this information degrades through the layers. We introduce Temporal-Prior Conditioning (TPC), which elevates time to a first-class modality that conditions the model at multiple depths. TPC attaches a small set of learnable time series tokens to the patch stream; at selected layers these tokens cross-attend to temporal embeddings derived from compact, human-readable temporal descriptors encoded by the same frozen LLM, then feed temporal context back via self-attention. This disentangles time series signal and temporal information while maintaining a low parameter budget. We show that by training only the cross-attention modules and explicitly disentangling time series signal and temporal information, TPC consistently outperforms both full fine-tuning and shallow conditioning strategies, achieving state-of-the-art performance in long-term forecasting across diverse datasets. Code available at: https://github.com/fil-mp/Deep_tpc

Reasoning about time is essential for Large Language Models (LLMs) to understand the world. Previous works focus on solving specific tasks, primarily on time-sensitive question answering. While these methods have proven effective, they cannot generalize to a wider spectrum of temporal reasoning tasks. Therefore, we propose a crucial question: Can we build a universal framework to handle a variety of temporal reasoning tasks? To that end, we systematically study 38 temporal reasoning tasks. Based on the observation that 19 tasks are directly related to mathematics, we first leverage the available mathematical dataset to set a solid foundation for temporal reasoning. However, the in-depth study indicates that focusing solely on mathematical enhancement falls short of addressing pure temporal reasoning tasks. To mitigate this limitation, we propose a simple but effective self-critic temporal optimization method to enhance the model's temporal reasoning capabilities without sacrificing general task abilities. Finally, we develop Timo, a model designed to excel in temporal reasoning at the 7B and 13B scales. Notably, Timo outperforms the counterpart LLMs by 10.0 and 7.6 in average accuracy scores and achieves the new state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance of comparable size. Extensive experiments further validate our framework's effectiveness and its generalization across diverse temporal tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/zhaochen0110/Timo.

Pretrained Vision-Language-Action (VLA) policies have achieved strong single-step manipulation, but their inference remains largely memoryless, which is brittle in non-Markovian long-horizon settings with occlusion, state aliasing, and subtle post-action changes. Prior approaches inject history either by stacking frames, which scales visual tokens and latency while adding near-duplicate pixels, or by learning additional temporal interfaces that require (re-)training and may break the original single-frame inference graph. We present TempoFit, a training-free temporal retrofit that upgrades frozen VLAs through state-level memory. Our key insight is that prefix attention K/V already form a model-native, content-addressable runtime state; reusing them across timesteps introduces history without new tokens or trainable modules. TempoFit stores layer-wise FIFO prefix K/V at selected intermediate layers, performs parameter-free K-to-K retrieval with Frame-Gap Temporal Bias (FGTB), a fixed recency bias inspired by positional biases in NLP, to keep decisions present-dominant, and injects the retrieved context via pre-attention residual loading with norm-preserving rescaling to avoid distribution shift under frozen weights. On LIBERO-LONG, TempoFit improves strong pretrained backbones by up to +4.0% average success rate while maintaining near-real-time latency, and it transfers consistently to CALVIN and real-robot long-horizon tasks.

In continual learning, catastrophic forgetting is affected by multiple aspects of the tasks. Previous works have analyzed separately how forgetting is affected by either task similarity or overparameterization. In contrast, our paper examines how task similarity and overparameterization jointly affect forgetting in an analyzable model. Specifically, we focus on two-task continual linear regression, where the second task is a random orthogonal transformation of an arbitrary first task (an abstraction of random permutation tasks). We derive an exact analytical expression for the expected forgetting - and uncover a nuanced pattern. In highly overparameterized models, intermediate task similarity causes the most forgetting. However, near the interpolation threshold, forgetting decreases monotonically with the expected task similarity. We validate our findings with linear regression on synthetic data, and with neural networks on established permutation task benchmarks.

Keeping the performance of language technologies optimal as time passes is of great practical interest. We study temporal effects on model performance on downstream language tasks, establishing a nuanced terminology for such discussion and identifying factors essential to conduct a robust study. We present experiments for several tasks in English where the label correctness is not dependent on time and demonstrate the importance of distinguishing between temporal model deterioration and temporal domain adaptation for systems using pre-trained representations. We find that depending on the task, temporal model deterioration is not necessarily a concern. Temporal domain adaptation however is beneficial in all cases, with better performance for a given time period possible when the system is trained on temporally more recent data. Therefore, we also examine the efficacy of two approaches for temporal domain adaptation without human annotations on new data. Self-labeling shows consistent improvement and notably, for named entity recognition, leads to better temporal adaptation than even human annotations.

We present time vectors, a simple tool to customize language models to new time periods. Time vectors are created by finetuning a language model on data from a single time (e.g., a year or month), and then subtracting the weights of the original pretrained model. This vector specifies a direction in weight space that, as our experiments show, improves performance on text from that time period. Time vectors specialized to adjacent time periods appear to be positioned closer together in a manifold. Using this structure, we interpolate between time vectors to induce new models that perform better on intervening and future time periods, without any additional training. We demonstrate the consistency of our findings across different tasks, domains, model sizes, and time scales. Our results suggest that time is encoded in the weight space of finetuned models.

Temporal point processes are the dominant paradigm for modeling sequences of events happening at irregular intervals. The standard way of learning in such models is by estimating the conditional intensity function. However, parameterizing the intensity function usually incurs several trade-offs. We show how to overcome the limitations of intensity-based approaches by directly modeling the conditional distribution of inter-event times. We draw on the literature on normalizing flows to design models that are flexible and efficient. We additionally propose a simple mixture model that matches the flexibility of flow-based models, but also permits sampling and computing moments in closed form. The proposed models achieve state-of-the-art performance in standard prediction tasks and are suitable for novel applications, such as learning sequence embeddings and imputing missing data.

This work studies the convergence of two-timescale stochastic approximations (SA), a class of iterative algorithms that update two sets of parameters in fast and slow timescales respectively. Notable examples of two-timescale SA in reinforcement learning (RL) include temporal difference learning with gradient correction (TDC) and actor-critic methods. Previously, the stability (i.e., boundedness) and convergence of two-timescale SA were only established under i.i.d. noise. This work instead establishes the stability and convergence of two-timescale SA under Markovian noise, a setup that is more realistic in RL. Notably, we do not need to use any projection operator and the noise does not need to live in a compact space. Our key technical novelty is to control the fast timescale parameter with the running max of the slow timescale parameter, instead of with the current slow timescale parameter, as most prior works do. As a key application, we establish the first almost sure convergence of TDC with eligibility traces under off-policy learning with linear function approximation.

Time series foundation models have shown impressive performance on a variety of tasks, across a wide range of domains, even in zero-shot settings. However, most of these models are designed to handle short univariate time series as an input. This limits their practical use, especially in domains such as healthcare with copious amounts of long and multivariate data with strong temporal and intra-variate dependencies. Our study bridges this gap by cataloging and systematically comparing various context expansion techniques from both language and time series domains, and introducing a novel compressive memory mechanism to allow encoder-only TSFMs to effectively model intra-variate dependencies. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach by imbuing MOMENT, a recent family of multi-task time series foundation models, with the multivariate context.

While diffusion model fine-tuning offers a powerful approach for customizing pre-trained models to generate specific objects, it frequently suffers from overfitting when training samples are limited, compromising both generalization capability and output diversity. This paper tackles the challenging yet most impactful task of adapting a diffusion model using just a single concept image, as single-image customization holds the greatest practical potential. We introduce T-LoRA, a Timestep-Dependent Low-Rank Adaptation framework specifically designed for diffusion model personalization. In our work we show that higher diffusion timesteps are more prone to overfitting than lower ones, necessitating a timestep-sensitive fine-tuning strategy. T-LoRA incorporates two key innovations: (1) a dynamic fine-tuning strategy that adjusts rank-constrained updates based on diffusion timesteps, and (2) a weight parametrization technique that ensures independence between adapter components through orthogonal initialization. Extensive experiments show that T-LoRA and its individual components outperform standard LoRA and other diffusion model personalization techniques. They achieve a superior balance between concept fidelity and text alignment, highlighting the potential of T-LoRA in data-limited and resource-constrained scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/ControlGenAI/T-LoRA.

Learning Rate Rewinding (LRR) has been established as a strong variant of Iterative Magnitude Pruning (IMP) to find lottery tickets in deep overparameterized neural networks. While both iterative pruning schemes couple structure and parameter learning, understanding how LRR excels in both aspects can bring us closer to the design of more flexible deep learning algorithms that can optimize diverse sets of sparse architectures. To this end, we conduct experiments that disentangle the effect of mask learning and parameter optimization and how both benefit from overparameterization. The ability of LRR to flip parameter signs early and stay robust to sign perturbations seems to make it not only more effective in mask identification but also in optimizing diverse sets of masks, including random ones. In support of this hypothesis, we prove in a simplified single hidden neuron setting that LRR succeeds in more cases than IMP, as it can escape initially problematic sign configurations.

We study grokking, the onset of generalization long after overfitting, in a classical ridge regression setting. We prove end-to-end grokking results for learning over-parameterized linear regression models using gradient descent with weight decay. Specifically, we prove that the following stages occur: (i) the model overfits the training data early during training; (ii) poor generalization persists long after overfitting has manifested; and (iii) the generalization error eventually becomes arbitrarily small. Moreover, we show, both theoretically and empirically, that grokking can be amplified or eliminated in a principled manner through proper hyperparameter tuning. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first rigorous quantitative bounds on the generalization delay (which we refer to as the "grokking time") in terms of training hyperparameters. Lastly, going beyond the linear setting, we empirically demonstrate that our quantitative bounds also capture the behavior of grokking on non-linear neural networks. Our results suggest that grokking is not an inherent failure mode of deep learning, but rather a consequence of specific training conditions, and thus does not require fundamental changes to the model architecture or learning algorithm to avoid.

Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) serve as the standard mathematical framework for modeling asynchronous event sequences in continuous time. However, classical TPP models are often constrained by strong assumptions, limiting their ability to capture complex real-world event dynamics. To overcome this limitation, researchers have proposed Neural TPPs, which leverage neural network parametrizations to offer more flexible and efficient modeling. While recent studies demonstrate the effectiveness of Neural TPPs, they often lack a unified setup, relying on different baselines, datasets, and experimental configurations. This makes it challenging to identify the key factors driving improvements in predictive accuracy, hindering research progress. To bridge this gap, we present a comprehensive large-scale experimental study that systematically evaluates the predictive accuracy of state-of-the-art neural TPP models. Our study encompasses multiple real-world and synthetic event sequence datasets, following a carefully designed unified setup. We thoroughly investigate the influence of major architectural components such as event encoding, history encoder, and decoder parametrization on both time and mark prediction tasks. Additionally, we delve into the less explored area of probabilistic calibration for neural TPP models. By analyzing our results, we draw insightful conclusions regarding the significance of history size and the impact of architectural components on predictive accuracy. Furthermore, we shed light on the miscalibration of mark distributions in neural TPP models. Our study aims to provide valuable insights into the performance and characteristics of neural TPP models, contributing to a better understanding of their strengths and limitations.

The Diffusion models, widely used for image generation, face significant challenges related to their broad applicability due to prolonged inference times and high memory demands. Efficient Post-Training Quantization (PTQ) is crucial to address these issues. However, unlike traditional models, diffusion models critically rely on the time-step for the multi-round denoising. Typically, each time-step is encoded into a hypersensitive temporal feature by several modules. Despite this, existing PTQ methods do not optimize these modules individually. Instead, they employ unsuitable reconstruction objectives and complex calibration methods, leading to significant disturbances in the temporal feature and denoising trajectory, as well as reduced compression efficiency. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel quantization framework that includes three strategies: 1) TIB-based Maintenance: Based on our innovative Temporal Information Block (TIB) definition, Temporal Information-aware Reconstruction (TIAR) and Finite Set Calibration (FSC) are developed to efficiently align original temporal features. 2) Cache-based Maintenance: Instead of indirect and complex optimization for the related modules, pre-computing and caching quantized counterparts of temporal features are developed to minimize errors. 3) Disturbance-aware Selection: Employ temporal feature errors to guide a fine-grained selection between the two maintenance strategies for further disturbance reduction. This framework preserves most of the temporal information and ensures high-quality end-to-end generation. Extensive testing on various datasets, diffusion models and hardware confirms our superior performance and acceleration..

Continual learning (CL), which aims to learn a sequence of tasks, has attracted significant recent attention. However, most work has focused on the experimental performance of CL, and theoretical studies of CL are still limited. In particular, there is a lack of understanding on what factors are important and how they affect "catastrophic forgetting" and generalization performance. To fill this gap, our theoretical analysis, under overparameterized linear models, provides the first-known explicit form of the expected forgetting and generalization error. Further analysis of such a key result yields a number of theoretical explanations about how overparameterization, task similarity, and task ordering affect both forgetting and generalization error of CL. More interestingly, by conducting experiments on real datasets using deep neural networks (DNNs), we show that some of these insights even go beyond the linear models and can be carried over to practical setups. In particular, we use concrete examples to show that our results not only explain some interesting empirical observations in recent studies, but also motivate better practical algorithm designs of CL.

As large language models (LLMs) increasingly tackle complex reasoning tasks, test-time scaling has become critical for enhancing capabilities. However, in agentic scenarios with frequent tool calls, the traditional generation-length-based definition breaks down: tool latency decouples inference time from generation length. We propose Timely Machine, redefining test-time as wall-clock time, where models dynamically adjust strategies based on time budgets. We introduce Timely-Eval, a benchmark spanning high-frequency tool calls, low-frequency tool calls, and time-constrained reasoning. By varying tool latency, we find smaller models excel with fast feedback through more interactions, while larger models dominate high-latency settings via superior interaction quality. Moreover, existing models fail to adapt reasoning to time budgets. We propose Timely-RL to address this gap. After cold-start supervised fine-tuning, we use reinforcement learning to enhance temporal planning. Timely-RL improves time budget awareness and consistently boosts performance across Timely-Eval. We hope our work offers a new perspective on test-time scaling for the agentic era.

We introduce MOMENT, a family of open-source foundation models for general-purpose time-series analysis. Pre-training large models on time-series data is challenging due to (1) the absence of a large and cohesive public time-series repository, and (2) diverse time-series characteristics which make multi-dataset training onerous. Additionally, (3) experimental benchmarks to evaluate these models, especially in scenarios with limited resources, time, and supervision, are still in their nascent stages. To address these challenges, we compile a large and diverse collection of public time-series, called the Time-series Pile, and systematically tackle time-series-specific challenges to unlock large-scale multi-dataset pre-training. Finally, we build on recent work to design a benchmark to evaluate time-series foundation models on diverse tasks and datasets in limited supervision settings. Experiments on this benchmark demonstrate the effectiveness of our pre-trained models with minimal data and task-specific fine-tuning. Finally, we present several interesting empirical observations about large pre-trained time-series models. Our code is available anonymously at anonymous.4open.science/r/BETT-773F/.

This study explores the interference in temporal processing within a dual-task paradigm from an artificial intelligence (AI) perspective. In this context, the dual-task setup is implemented as a simplified version of the Overcooked environment with two variations, single task (T) and dual task (T+N). Both variations involve an embedded time production task, but the dual task (T+N) additionally involves a concurrent number comparison task. Two deep reinforcement learning (DRL) agents were separately trained for each of these tasks. These agents exhibited emergent behavior consistent with human timing research. Specifically, the dual task (T+N) agent exhibited significant overproduction of time relative to its single task (T) counterpart. This result was consistent across four target durations. Preliminary analysis of neural dynamics in the agents' LSTM layers did not reveal any clear evidence of a dedicated or intrinsic timer. Hence, further investigation is needed to better understand the underlying time-keeping mechanisms of the agents and to provide insights into the observed behavioral patterns. This study is a small step towards exploring parallels between emergent DRL behavior and behavior observed in biological systems in order to facilitate a better understanding of both.

Time-series forecasting research has been moving steadily toward larger architectures, from specialized transformers to general-purpose foundation models, on the assumption that capacity is what unlocks accuracy. We take the opposite position: most of the gap can be closed at far lower cost by tuning preprocessing rather than scaling models. We use Ridge regression as the testbed, since it has a closed-form solution and interpretable weights, which let the optimal hyperparameters be read off the search directly. We search over context length, local normalization, regularization, and augmentation on eight standard benchmarks and find three patterns. (1) Optimal lookback is strongly series-specific and often non-monotonic in forecast horizon, with fitted power-law exponents ranging from +0.46 on ETTm2 to -0.19 on Exchange and Traffic, challenging the convention that longer horizons need longer history. (2) Normalizing over a learned trailing fraction of the context, rather than its entirety, is almost universally preferred. (3) Series within the same dataset often disagree on hyperparameters; the optimal degree of cross-series sharing varies from fully shared to fully per-series. The resulting models beat prior linear forecasters on most dataset-horizon entries and exceed Transformer, MLP, and CNN baselines on six of eight benchmarks. The optimized hyperparameters also serve as a diagnostic on the data itself, revealing structures that larger models absorb silently into their learned parameters.

In the pursuit of superior video-processing MLLMs, we have encountered a perplexing paradox: the "anti-scaling law", where more data and larger models lead to worse performance. This study unmasks the culprit: "temporal hacking", a phenomenon where models shortcut by fixating on select frames, missing the full video narrative. In this work, we systematically establish a comprehensive theory of temporal hacking, defining it from a reinforcement learning perspective, introducing the Temporal Perplexity (TPL) score to assess this misalignment, and proposing the Unhackable Temporal Rewarding (UTR) framework to mitigate the temporal hacking. Both theoretically and empirically, TPL proves to be a reliable indicator of temporal modeling quality, correlating strongly with frame activation patterns. Extensive experiments reveal that UTR not only counters temporal hacking but significantly elevates video comprehension capabilities. This work not only advances video-AI systems but also illuminates the critical importance of aligning proxy rewards with true objectives in MLLM development.

We introduce Timer-S1, a strong Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) time series foundation model with 8.3B total parameters, 0.75B activated parameters for each token, and a context length of 11.5K. To overcome the scalability bottleneck in existing pre-trained time series foundation models, we perform Serial Scaling in three dimensions: model architecture, dataset, and training pipeline. Timer-S1 integrates sparse TimeMoE blocks and generic TimeSTP blocks for Serial-Token Prediction (STP), a generic training objective that adheres to the serial nature of forecasting. The proposed paradigm introduces serial computations to improve long-term predictions while avoiding costly rolling-style inference and pronounced error accumulation in the standard next-token prediction. Pursuing a high-quality and unbiased training dataset, we curate TimeBench, a corpus with one trillion time points, and apply meticulous data augmentation to mitigate predictive bias. We further pioneer a post-training stage, including continued pre-training and long-context extension, to enhance short-term and long-context performance. Evaluated on the large-scale GIFT-Eval leaderboard, Timer-S1 achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, attaining the best MASE and CRPS scores as a pre-trained model. Timer-S1 will be released to facilitate further research.

We introduce the concept of multiple temporal perspectives, a novel approach applicable to Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architectures for enhancing their understanding of sequential data. This method involves maintaining diverse temporal views of previously encountered text, significantly enriching the language models' capacity to interpret context. To show the efficacy of this approach, we incorporate it into the Receptance Weighted Key Value (RWKV) architecture, addressing its inherent challenge of retaining all historical information within a single hidden state. Notably, this improvement is achieved with a minimal increase in the number of parameters --even as little as 0.04% of the original number of parameters. Further, the additional parameters necessary for the multiple temporal perspectives are fine-tuned with minimal computational overhead, avoiding the need for a full pre-training. The resulting model maintains linear computational complexity during prompt inference, ensuring consistent efficiency across various sequence lengths. The empirical results and ablation studies included in our research validate the effectiveness of our approach, showcasing improved performance across multiple benchmarks. The code, model weights and datasets are open-sourced at: https://github.com/RazvanDu/TemporalRNNs.

Multivariate time-series data in numerous real-world applications (e.g., healthcare and industry) are informative but challenging due to the lack of labels and high dimensionality. Recent studies in self-supervised learning have shown their potential in learning rich representations without relying on labels, yet they fall short in learning disentangled embeddings and addressing issues of inductive bias (e.g., transformation-invariance). To tackle these challenges, we propose TimeDRL, a generic multivariate time-series representation learning framework with disentangled dual-level embeddings. TimeDRL is characterized by three novel features: (i) disentangled derivation of timestamp-level and instance-level embeddings from patched time-series data using a [CLS] token strategy; (ii) utilization of timestamp-predictive and instance-contrastive tasks for disentangled representation learning, with the former optimizing timestamp-level embeddings with predictive loss, and the latter optimizing instance-level embeddings with contrastive loss; and (iii) avoidance of augmentation methods to eliminate inductive biases, such as transformation-invariance from cropping and masking. Comprehensive experiments on 6 time-series forecasting datasets and 5 time-series classification datasets have shown that TimeDRL consistently surpasses existing representation learning approaches, achieving an average improvement of forecasting by 58.02% in MSE and classification by 1.48% in accuracy. Furthermore, extensive ablation studies confirmed the relative contribution of each component in TimeDRL's architecture, and semi-supervised learning evaluations demonstrated its effectiveness in real-world scenarios, even with limited labeled data. The code is available at https://github.com/blacksnail789521/TimeDRL.

Diffusion models have been widely adopted in image and video generation. However, their complex network architecture leads to high inference overhead for its generation process. Existing diffusion quantization methods primarily focus on the quantization of the model structure while ignoring the impact of time-steps variation during sampling. At the same time, most current approaches fail to account for significant activations that cannot be eliminated, resulting in substantial performance degradation after quantization. To address these issues, we propose Time-Rotation Diffusion Quantization (TR-DQ), a novel quantization method incorporating time-step and rotation-based optimization. TR-DQ first divides the sampling process based on time-steps and applies a rotation matrix to smooth activations and weights dynamically. For different time-steps, a dedicated hyperparameter is introduced for adaptive timing modeling, which enables dynamic quantization across different time steps. Additionally, we also explore the compression potential of Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG-wise) to establish a foundation for subsequent work. TR-DQ achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on image generation and video generation tasks and a 1.38-1.89x speedup and 1.97-2.58x memory reduction in inference compared to existing quantization methods.

Time Series Language Models (TSLMs) are emerging as unified models for reasoning over continuous signals in natural language. However, long-context retrieval remains a major limitation: existing models are typically trained and evaluated on short sequences, while real-world time-series sensor streams can span millions of datapoints. This mismatch requires precise temporal localization under strict computational constraints, a regime that is not captured by current benchmarks. We introduce TS-Haystack, a long-context temporal retrieval benchmark comprising ten task types across four categories: direct retrieval, temporal reasoning, multi-step reasoning and contextual anomaly. The benchmark uses controlled needle insertion by embedding short activity bouts into longer longitudinal accelerometer recordings, enabling systematic evaluation across context lengths ranging from seconds to 2 hours per sample. We hypothesize that existing TSLM time series encoders overlook temporal granularity as context length increases, creating a task-dependent effect: compression aids classification but impairs retrieval of localized events. Across multiple model and encoding strategies, we observe a consistent divergence between classification and retrieval behavior. Learned latent compression preserves or improves classification accuracy at compression ratios up to 176times, but retrieval performance degrades with context length, incurring in the loss of temporally localized information. These results highlight the importance of architectural designs that decouple sequence length from computational complexity while preserving temporal fidelity.

The past decade has witnessed significant advances in time series modeling with deep learning. While achieving state-of-the-art results, the best-performing architectures vary highly across applications and domains. Meanwhile, for natural language processing, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) has demonstrated impressive performance via training one general-purpose model across various textual datasets. It is intriguing to explore whether GPT-type architectures can be effective for time series, capturing the intrinsic dynamic attributes and leading to significant accuracy improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, TEMPO, that can effectively learn time series representations. We focus on utilizing two essential inductive biases of the time series task for pre-trained models: (i) decomposition of the complex interaction between trend, seasonal and residual components; and (ii) introducing the selection-based prompts to facilitate distribution adaptation in non-stationary time series. TEMPO expands the capability for dynamically modeling real-world temporal phenomena from data within diverse domains. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of TEMPO over state-of-the-art methods on a number of time series benchmark datasets. This performance gain is observed not only in standard supervised learning settings but also in scenarios involving previously unseen datasets as well as in scenarios with multi-modal inputs. This compelling finding highlights TEMPO's potential to constitute a foundational model-building framework.

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has led to the development of benchmarks that consider temporal dynamics, however, there remains a gap in understanding how well these models can generalize across temporal contexts due to the inherent dynamic nature of language and information. This paper introduces the concept of temporal generalization in LLMs, including bias in past and future generalizations. Then we introduce FreshBench, a new evaluation framework that employs fresh text and event prediction for assessing LLMs' temporal adaptability, ensuring the evaluation process free from data leakage and subjective bias. The experiment shows significant temporal biases and a decline in performance over time. Our findings reveal that powerful models, while initially superior, tend to decline more rapidly in future generalization. Additionally, powerful open-source models demonstrate better long-term adaptability compared to their closed-source counterparts. Our code is available at https://github.com/FreedomIntelligence/FreshBench.

Bridging the gap between diffusion models and human preferences is crucial for their integration into practical generative workflows. While optimizing downstream reward models has emerged as a promising alignment strategy, concerns arise regarding the risk of excessive optimization with learned reward models, which potentially compromises ground-truth performance. In this work, we confront the reward overoptimization problem in diffusion model alignment through the lenses of both inductive and primacy biases. We first identify a mismatch between current methods and the temporal inductive bias inherent in the multi-step denoising process of diffusion models, as a potential source of reward overoptimization. Then, we surprisingly discover that dormant neurons in our critic model act as a regularization against reward overoptimization while active neurons reflect primacy bias. Motivated by these observations, we propose Temporal Diffusion Policy Optimization with critic active neuron Reset (TDPO-R), a policy gradient algorithm that exploits the temporal inductive bias of diffusion models and mitigates the primacy bias stemming from active neurons. Empirical results demonstrate the superior efficacy of our methods in mitigating reward overoptimization. Code is avaliable at https://github.com/ZiyiZhang27/tdpo.

Conventional wisdom in deep learning states that increasing depth improves expressiveness but complicates optimization. This paper suggests that, sometimes, increasing depth can speed up optimization. The effect of depth on optimization is decoupled from expressiveness by focusing on settings where additional layers amount to overparameterization - linear neural networks, a well-studied model. Theoretical analysis, as well as experiments, show that here depth acts as a preconditioner which may accelerate convergence. Even on simple convex problems such as linear regression with ell_p loss, p>2, gradient descent can benefit from transitioning to a non-convex overparameterized objective, more than it would from some common acceleration schemes. We also prove that it is mathematically impossible to obtain the acceleration effect of overparametrization via gradients of any regularizer.

Large language models are pre-trained on ever-growing token budgets under the assumption that better pre-training performance translates to improved downstream models. In this work, we challenge this assumption and show that extended pre-training can make models harder to fine-tune, leading to degraded final performance. We term this phenomenon catastrophic overtraining. For example, the instruction-tuned OLMo-1B model pre-trained on 3T tokens leads to over 2% worse performance on multiple standard LLM benchmarks than its 2.3T token counterpart. Through controlled experiments and theoretical analysis, we show that catastrophic overtraining arises from a systematic increase in the broad sensitivity of pre-trained parameters to modifications, including but not limited to fine-tuning. Our findings call for a critical reassessment of pre-training design that considers the downstream adaptability of the model.

Markov processes are widely used mathematical models for describing dynamic systems in various fields. However, accurately simulating large-scale systems at long time scales is computationally expensive due to the short time steps required for accurate integration. In this paper, we introduce an inference process that maps complex systems into a simplified representational space and models large jumps in time. To achieve this, we propose Time-lagged Information Bottleneck (T-IB), a principled objective rooted in information theory, which aims to capture relevant temporal features while discarding high-frequency information to simplify the simulation task and minimize the inference error. Our experiments demonstrate that T-IB learns information-optimal representations for accurately modeling the statistical properties and dynamics of the original process at a selected time lag, outperforming existing time-lagged dimensionality reduction methods.

Time series classification (TSC) is dominated by a two-stage paradigm: train a feature encoder -- either from scratch on the target dataset or via pretraining on large corpora -- and then fit a task-specific classifier on top. While effective, this decoupling optimizes representation learning independently of the classification objective, requires per-dataset training, and prevents the model from exploiting label information during inference. We introduce TimEE, a 4.5M-parameter foundation model for end-to-end TSC via in-context learning. Given a labeled support set and a query time series, TimEE directly outputs a predicted class distribution in a single forward pass with no per-dataset training required. Following the prior-data fitted network (PFN) framework, TimEE is meta-trained exclusively on synthetic TSC tasks, where each task contains time series with distinct class identities arising from structured distributional shifts in the generative process. Despite seeing no real time series during pre-training, TimEE ranks first in ROC AUC (and third on accuracy) on the UCR benchmark among all compared methods, which include both foundation models and supervised deep learning baselines. To our knowledge, TimEE is the first purely synthetic-pretrained model to reach state-of-the-art performance on the UCR benchmark. These results establish end-to-end ICL with synthetic priors as a compelling, largely unexplored direction for TSC, with scaling, prior design, and richer generation mechanisms as natural avenues for improvement. Code is publicly available at http://github.com/automl/timee.

Machine learning models are vulnerable to adversarial perturbations, and a thought-provoking paper by Bubeck and Sellke has analyzed this phenomenon through the lens of over-parameterization: interpolating smoothly the data requires significantly more parameters than simply memorizing it. However, this "universal" law provides only a necessary condition for robustness, and it is unable to discriminate between models. In this paper, we address these gaps by focusing on empirical risk minimization in two prototypical settings, namely, random features and the neural tangent kernel (NTK). We prove that, for random features, the model is not robust for any degree of over-parameterization, even when the necessary condition coming from the universal law of robustness is satisfied. In contrast, for even activations, the NTK model meets the universal lower bound, and it is robust as soon as the necessary condition on over-parameterization is fulfilled. This also addresses a conjecture in prior work by Bubeck, Li and Nagaraj. Our analysis decouples the effect of the kernel of the model from an "interaction matrix", which describes the interaction with the test data and captures the effect of the activation. Our theoretical results are corroborated by numerical evidence on both synthetic and standard datasets (MNIST, CIFAR-10).

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Despite advances in general video understanding, Video Large Language Models (Video-LLMs) face challenges in precise temporal localization due to discrete time representations and limited temporally aware datasets. Existing methods for temporal expression either conflate time with text-based numerical values, add a series of dedicated temporal tokens, or regress time using specialized temporal grounding heads. To address these issues, we introduce DisTime, a lightweight framework designed to enhance temporal comprehension in Video-LLMs. DisTime employs a learnable token to create a continuous temporal embedding space and incorporates a Distribution-based Time Decoder that generates temporal probability distributions, effectively mitigating boundary ambiguities and maintaining temporal continuity. Additionally, the Distribution-based Time Encoder re-encodes timestamps to provide time markers for Video-LLMs. To overcome temporal granularity limitations in existing datasets, we propose an automated annotation paradigm that combines the captioning capabilities of Video-LLMs with the localization expertise of dedicated temporal models. This leads to the creation of InternVid-TG, a substantial dataset with 1.25M temporally grounded events across 179k videos, surpassing ActivityNet-Caption by 55 times. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DisTime achieves state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks in three time-sensitive tasks while maintaining competitive performance in Video QA tasks. Code and data are released at https://github.com/josephzpng/DisTime.

We first raise and tackle a ``time synchronization'' issue between the agent and the environment in non-stationary reinforcement learning (RL), a crucial factor hindering its real-world applications. In reality, environmental changes occur over wall-clock time (t) rather than episode progress (k), where wall-clock time signifies the actual elapsed time within the fixed duration t in [0, T]. In existing works, at episode k, the agent rolls a trajectory and trains a policy before transitioning to episode k+1. In the context of the time-desynchronized environment, however, the agent at time t_{k} allocates Δt for trajectory generation and training, subsequently moves to the next episode at t_{k+1}=t_{k}+Δt. Despite a fixed total number of episodes (K), the agent accumulates different trajectories influenced by the choice of interaction times (t_1,t_2,...,t_K), significantly impacting the suboptimality gap of the policy. We propose a Proactively Synchronizing Tempo (ProST) framework that computes a suboptimal sequence {t_1,t_2,...,t_K} (= { t_{1:K}}) by minimizing an upper bound on its performance measure, i.e., the dynamic regret. Our main contribution is that we show that a suboptimal {t_{1:K}} trades-off between the policy training time (agent tempo) and how fast the environment changes (environment tempo). Theoretically, this work develops a suboptimal {t_{1:K}} as a function of the degree of the environment's non-stationarity while also achieving a sublinear dynamic regret. Our experimental evaluation on various high-dimensional non-stationary environments shows that the ProST framework achieves a higher online return at suboptimal {t_{1:K}} than the existing methods.

Language Models (LMs) have shown substantial improvements in handling factual knowledge, yet their capability to consistently represent temporal facts, which are valid only within specific timeframes, remains underexplored. To investigate this, we introduce TimeStress, a novel dataset comprising 521K statements on 2003 of the most popular temporal facts in Wikidata. Each statement contextualizes a fact with correct and incorrect dates across three precisions (Day, Month, Year). This setup allows us to evaluate LMs' ability to discern between correct and incorrect temporal statements based on their probability of being generated. We assess 18 LMs across various architectures using two metrics: the win rate, indicating how often correct dates outperform incorrect ones, and robustness, reflecting consistent performance across all dates. Our findings reveal that while some LMs achieve a win rate exceeding 80\%, robustness remains low, with the best model achieving only 6\%. Furthermore, robust knowledge at one date precision does not reliably transfer to others, highlighting a significant generalization gap. These results underscore the struggle of LMs to maintain a consistent temporal representation, supporting their limitations as reliable sources of temporal knowledge. We provide all data and code for further research.

Large language models achieve strong performance across diverse tasks, but deployment remains costly because of memory, latency, and energy demands. Structured pruning reduces these costs by removing architectural components, yet its recovery stage is often limited by a mismatch between the recovery module's representational capacity and the complexity of the removed knowledge. We call this bottleneck the capacity-knowledge asymmetry and propose OverRep, an Overcomplete Reparameterization framework for structured LLM pruning. Following the principle of "train overcomplete, deploy compact", OverRep temporarily overparameterizes the recovery module during training to absorb complex knowledge distilled from the original model. After recovery, the overcomplete re-parameterization is algebraically merged into a mathematically equivalent compact module, preserving the pruned model's inference-time architecture and computational cost. OverRep further introduces an annealed activation that enables nonlinear training dynamics while converging to a linear regime for exact algebraic merging. Across three backbone families, OverRep improves retained reasoning performance over strong recovery baselines by up to 5.5 and 8.4 points at 25% and 50% pruning, respectively, while keeping memory usage and TFLOPs comparable to existing recovery methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/mmai-laboratory/OverRep.

Overparameterized large-scale language models have impressive generalization performance of in-context few-shot learning. However, most language models allocate the same amount of parameters or computation to each token, disregarding the complexity or importance of the input data. We argue that in language model pretraining, a variable amount of computation should be assigned to different tokens, and this can be efficiently achieved via a simple routing mechanism. Different from conventional early stopping techniques where tokens can early exit at only early layers, we propose a more general method that dynamically skips the execution of a layer (or module) for any input token with a binary router. In our extensive evaluation across 24 NLP tasks, we demonstrate that the proposed method can significantly improve the 1-shot performance compared to other competitive baselines only at mild extra cost for inference.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success as generative models. However, even a well-trained model can accumulate errors throughout the generation process. These errors become particularly problematic when arbitrary guidance is applied to steer samples toward desired properties, which often breaks sample fidelity. In this paper, we propose a general solution to address the off-manifold phenomenon observed in diffusion models. Our approach leverages a time predictor to estimate deviations from the desired data manifold at each timestep, identifying that a larger time gap is associated with reduced generation quality. We then design a novel guidance mechanism, `Temporal Alignment Guidance' (TAG), attracting the samples back to the desired manifold at every timestep during generation. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that TAG consistently produces samples closely aligned with the desired manifold at each timestep, leading to significant improvements in generation quality across various downstream tasks.

Large-scale pre-trained models (PTMs) such as BERT and GPT have recently achieved great success in Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision domains. However, the development of PTMs on healthcare time-series data is lagging behind.This underscores the limitations of the existing transformer-based architectures, particularly their scalability to handle large-scale time series and ability to capture long-term temporal dependencies. In this study, we present Timely Generative Pre-trained Transformer (TimelyGPT). TimelyGPT employs an extrapolatable position (xPos) embedding to encode trend and periodic patterns into time-series representations. It also integrates recurrent attention and temporal convolution modules to effectively capture global-local temporal dependencies. We evaluated TimelyGPT on two large-scale healthcare time series datasets corresponding to continuous biosignals and irregularly-sampled time series, respectively. Our experiments show that during pre-training, TimelyGPT excels in learning time-series representations from continuously monitored biosignals and irregularly-sampled time series data commonly observed in longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs). In forecasting continuous biosignals, TimelyGPT achieves accurate extrapolation up to 6,000 timesteps of body temperature during the sleep stage transition, given a short look-up window (i.e., prompt) containing only 2,000 timesteps. For irregularly-sampled time series, TimelyGPT with a proposed time-specific inference demonstrates high top recall scores in predicting future diagnoses using early diagnostic records, effectively handling irregular intervals between clinical records. Together, we envision TimelyGPT to be useful in a broad spectrum of health domains, including long-term patient health state forecasting and patient risk trajectory prediction.

Many real-world systems exhibit temporal, dynamic behaviors, which are captured as time series of complex agent interactions. To perform temporal reasoning, current methods primarily encode temporal dynamics through simple sequence-based models. However, in general these models fail to efficiently capture the full spectrum of rich dynamics in the input, since the dynamics is not uniformly distributed. In particular, relevant information might be harder to extract and computing power is wasted for processing all individual timesteps, even if they contain no significant changes or no new information. Here we propose TimeGraphs, a novel approach that characterizes dynamic interactions as a hierarchical temporal graph, diverging from traditional sequential representations. Our approach models the interactions using a compact graph-based representation, enabling adaptive reasoning across diverse time scales. Adopting a self-supervised method, TimeGraphs constructs a multi-level event hierarchy from a temporal input, which is then used to efficiently reason about the unevenly distributed dynamics. This construction process is scalable and incremental to accommodate streaming data. We evaluate TimeGraphs on multiple datasets with complex, dynamic agent interactions, including a football simulator, the Resistance game, and the MOMA human activity dataset. The results demonstrate both robustness and efficiency of TimeGraphs on a range of temporal reasoning tasks. Our approach obtains state-of-the-art performance and leads to a performance increase of up to 12.2% on event prediction and recognition tasks over current approaches. Our experiments further demonstrate a wide array of capabilities including zero-shot generalization, robustness in case of data sparsity, and adaptability to streaming data flow.

A temporal point process is a mathematical model for a time series of discrete events, which covers various applications. Recently, recurrent neural network (RNN) based models have been developed for point processes and have been found effective. RNN based models usually assume a specific functional form for the time course of the intensity function of a point process (e.g., exponentially decreasing or increasing with the time since the most recent event). However, such an assumption can restrict the expressive power of the model. We herein propose a novel RNN based model in which the time course of the intensity function is represented in a general manner. In our approach, we first model the integral of the intensity function using a feedforward neural network and then obtain the intensity function as its derivative. This approach enables us to both obtain a flexible model of the intensity function and exactly evaluate the log-likelihood function, which contains the integral of the intensity function, without any numerical approximations. Our model achieves competitive or superior performances compared to the previous state-of-the-art methods for both synthetic and real datasets.

Temporal question answering is an established method for evaluating temporal reasoning in large language models. Expected answers are often numeric (e.g., dates or durations), yet model responses are evaluated like regular text with exact match (EM), unable to distinguish small from large errors. In this investigative work, we frame temporal question answering as a numerical estimation task to assess the shortcomings of EM. We introduce TempAnswerQA, a benchmark distilled from Test of Time and TempTabQA, where all questions require a numerical, temporal answer, allowing us to evaluate models beyond EM. We use the forecasting metrics symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). With sMAPE, we find that error size and EM are decoupled. Models with low EM still have low sMAPE (both ~20%), and some models have high sMAPE despite high EM. Scaling errors by the deviation of the ground truth data with MASE reshuffles model rankings compared to EM, revealing gaps in models' understanding of temporal domain knowledge, especially when trained with synthetic data. Lastly, the models' most frequent error is to deviate by only pm1 from the ground truth. sMAPE and MASE, unlike EM, adequately weight these errors. Our findings underscore the need for specialised metrics for temporal QA tasks. Code and data are available on https://github.com/aauss/temporal-answer-qa.

Extrapolation remains a grand challenge in deep neural networks across all application domains. We propose an operator learning method to solve time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) continuously and with extrapolation in time without any temporal discretization. The proposed method, named Diffusion-inspired Temporal Transformer Operator (DiTTO), is inspired by latent diffusion models and their conditioning mechanism, which we use to incorporate the temporal evolution of the PDE, in combination with elements from the transformer architecture to improve its capabilities. Upon training, DiTTO can make inferences in real-time. We demonstrate its extrapolation capability on a climate problem by estimating the temperature around the globe for several years, and also in modeling hypersonic flows around a double-cone. We propose different training strategies involving temporal-bundling and sub-sampling and demonstrate performance improvements for several benchmarks, performing extrapolation for long time intervals as well as zero-shot super-resolution in time.

Financial time series forecasting is central to trading, portfolio optimization, and risk management, yet it remains challenging due to noisy, non-stationary, and heterogeneous data. Recent advances in time series foundation models (TSFMs), inspired by large language models, offer a new paradigm for learning generalizable temporal representations from large and diverse datasets. This paper presents the first comprehensive empirical study of TSFMs in global financial markets. Using a large-scale dataset of daily excess returns across diverse markets, we evaluate zero-shot inference, fine-tuning, and pre-training from scratch against strong benchmark models. We find that off-the-shelf pre-trained TSFMs perform poorly in zero-shot and fine-tuning settings, whereas models pre-trained from scratch on financial data achieve substantial forecasting and economic improvements, underscoring the value of domain-specific adaptation. Increasing the dataset size, incorporating synthetic data augmentation, and applying hyperparameter tuning further enhance performance.

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) seeks to model temporal dynamics among variables to predict future trends. Transformer-based models and large language models (LLMs) have shown promise due to their ability to capture long-range dependencies and patterns. However, current methods often rely on rigid inductive biases, ignore intervariable interactions, or apply static fusion strategies that limit adaptability across forecast horizons. These limitations create bottlenecks in capturing nuanced, horizon-specific relationships in time-series data. To solve this problem, we propose T3Time, a novel trimodal framework consisting of time, spectral, and prompt branches, where the dedicated frequency encoding branch captures the periodic structures along with a gating mechanism that learns prioritization between temporal and spectral features based on the prediction horizon. We also proposed a mechanism which adaptively aggregates multiple cross-modal alignment heads by dynamically weighting the importance of each head based on the features. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that our model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving an average reduction of 3.28% in MSE and 2.29% in MAE. Furthermore, it shows strong generalization in few-shot learning settings: with 5% training data, we see a reduction in MSE and MAE by 4.13% and 1.91%, respectively; and with 10% data, by 3.62% and 1.98% on average. Code - https://github.com/monaf-chowdhury/T3Time/

Unsupervised dense retrievers offer scalability by learning semantic similarity from unlabeled documents via contrastive learning, but they struggle to capture the temporal relevance, retrieving semantically related but temporally misaligned documents-an important aspect when a document collection spans multiple time periods (e.g., retrieving documents from 2018-2025 for "Who is the president in 2019?" introduces temporal ambiguity). Existing methods rely on supervised training with explicit timestamps, which are not always feasible. We propose TPOUR (Temporal Preference Optimization for Unsupervised Retriever), which uses our novel training method Temporal Retrieval Preference Optimization (TRPO). TRPO reinterprets preference learning in the temporal dimension, guiding the retriever to favor temporally aligned documents. TPOUR further generalizes to unseen time periods via interpolation in a learned time embedding, enabling continuous temporal alignment. Experiments on temporal information retrieval (T-IR), TPOUR outperforms both unsupervised and supervised baselines. Compared to Qwen-Embedding-8B, despite being about 72.7x smaller, TPOUR Contriever improves average nDCG@5 by +4.04 (+12.15%) on explicit and +4.98 (+15.21%) on implicit queries. We provide our code at https://github.com/agwaBom/TPOUR.

Generating temporal data under conditions is crucial for forecasting, imputation, and generative tasks. Such data often has metadata and partially observed signals that jointly influence the generated values. However, existing methods face three key limitations: (1) they condition on either the metadata or observed values, but rarely both together; (2) they adopt either training-time approaches that fail to generalize to unseen scenarios, or inference-time approaches that ignore metadata; and (3) they suffer from trade-offs between generation speed and temporal coherence across time windows--choosing either slow but coherent autoregressive methods or fast but incoherent parallel ones. We propose WaveStitch, a novel diffusion-based method to overcome these hurdles through: (1) dual-sourced conditioning on both metadata and partially observed signals; (2) a hybrid training-inference architecture, incorporating metadata during training and observations at inference via gradient-based guidance; and (3) a novel pipeline-style paradigm that generates time windows in parallel while preserving coherence through an inference-time conditional loss and a stitching mechanism. Across diverse datasets, WaveStitch demonstrates adaptability to arbitrary patterns of observed signals, achieving 1.81x lower mean-squared-error compared to the state-of-the-art, and generates data up to 166.48x faster than autoregressive methods while maintaining coherence. Our code is available at: https://github.com/adis98/WaveStitch

In the evolving field of Natural Language Processing, understanding the temporal context of text is increasingly crucial. This study investigates methods to incorporate temporal information during pre-training, aiming to achieve effective time-aware language representation for improved performance on time-related tasks. In contrast to common pre-trained models like BERT, which rely on synchronic document collections such as BookCorpus and Wikipedia, our research introduces BiTimeBERT 2.0, a novel language model pre-trained on a temporal news article collection. BiTimeBERT 2.0 utilizes this temporal news collection, focusing on three innovative pre-training objectives: Time-Aware Masked Language Modeling (TAMLM), Document Dating (DD), and Time-Sensitive Entity Replacement (TSER). Each objective targets a unique aspect of temporal information. TAMLM is designed to enhance the understanding of temporal contexts and relations, DD integrates document timestamps as chronological markers, and TSER focuses on the temporal dynamics of "Person" entities, recognizing their inherent temporal significance. The experimental results consistently demonstrate that BiTimeBERT 2.0 outperforms models like BERT and other existing pre-trained models, achieving substantial gains across a variety of downstream NLP tasks and applications where time plays a pivotal role.

Time plays a critical role in how information is generated, retrieved, and interpreted. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive overview of Temporal Information Retrieval and Temporal Question Answering, two research areas aimed at handling and understanding time-sensitive information. As the amount of time-stamped content from sources like news articles, web archives, and knowledge bases increases, systems must address challenges such as detecting temporal intent, normalizing time expressions, ordering events, and reasoning over evolving or ambiguous facts. These challenges are critical across many dynamic and time-sensitive domains, from news and encyclopedias to science, history, and social media. We review both traditional approaches and modern neural methods, including those that use transformer models and Large Language Models (LLMs). We also review recent advances in temporal language modeling, multi-hop reasoning, and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), alongside benchmark datasets and evaluation strategies that test temporal robustness, recency awareness, and generalization.

We investigate the geometric structure of learning dynamics in overparameterized transformer models through carefully controlled modular arithmetic tasks. Our primary finding is that despite operating in high-dimensional parameter spaces (d=128), transformer training trajectories rapidly collapse onto low-dimensional execution manifolds of dimension 3--4. This dimensional collapse is robust across random seeds and moderate task difficulties, though the orientation of the manifold in parameter space varies between runs. We demonstrate that this geometric structure underlies several empirically observed phenomena: (1) sharp attention concentration emerges as saturation along routing coordinates within the execution manifold, (2) SGD commutators are preferentially aligned with the execution subspace (up to 10times random baseline) early in training, with >92% of non-commutativity confined to orthogonal staging directions and this alignment decreasing as training converges, and (3) sparse autoencoders capture auxiliary routing structure but fail to isolate execution itself, which remains distributed across the low-dimensional manifold. Our results suggest a unifying geometric framework for understanding transformer learning, where the vast majority of parameters serve to absorb optimization interference while core computation occurs in a dramatically reduced subspace. These findings have implications for interpretability, training curriculum design, and understanding the role of overparameterization in neural network learning.

Spatially dense self-supervised learning is a rapidly growing problem domain with promising applications for unsupervised segmentation and pretraining for dense downstream tasks. Despite the abundance of temporal data in the form of videos, this information-rich source has been largely overlooked. Our paper aims to address this gap by proposing a novel approach that incorporates temporal consistency in dense self-supervised learning. While methods designed solely for images face difficulties in achieving even the same performance on videos, our method improves not only the representation quality for videos-but also images. Our approach, which we call time-tuning, starts from image-pretrained models and fine-tunes them with a novel self-supervised temporal-alignment clustering loss on unlabeled videos. This effectively facilitates the transfer of high-level information from videos to image representations. Time-tuning improves the state-of-the-art by 8-10% for unsupervised semantic segmentation on videos and matches it for images. We believe this method paves the way for further self-supervised scaling by leveraging the abundant availability of videos. The implementation can be found here : https://github.com/SMSD75/Timetuning

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities but lack robust temporal intelligence, struggling to integrate reasoning about the past with predictions and plausible generations of the future. Meanwhile, existing methods typically target isolated temporal skills, such as question answering about past events or basic forecasting, and exhibit poor generalization, particularly when dealing with events beyond their knowledge cutoff or requiring creative foresight. To address these limitations, we introduce Time-R1, the first framework to endow a moderate-sized (3B-parameter) LLM with comprehensive temporal abilities: understanding, prediction, and creative generation. Our approach features a novel three-stage development path; the first two constitute a reinforcement learning (RL) curriculum driven by a meticulously designed dynamic rule-based reward system. This framework progressively builds (1) foundational temporal understanding and logical event-time mappings from historical data, (2) future event prediction skills for events beyond its knowledge cutoff, and finally (3) enables remarkable generalization to creative future scenario generation without any fine-tuning. Strikingly, experiments demonstrate that Time-R1 outperforms models over 200 times larger, including the state-of-the-art 671B DeepSeek-R1, on highly challenging future event prediction and creative scenario generation benchmarks. This work provides strong evidence that thoughtfully engineered, progressive RL fine-tuning allows smaller, efficient models to achieve superior temporal performance, offering a practical and scalable path towards truly time-aware AI. To foster further research, we also release Time-Bench, a large-scale multi-task temporal reasoning dataset derived from 10 years of news data, and our series of Time-R1 checkpoints.

The measurement of time is central to intelligent behavior. We know that both animals and artificial agents can successfully use temporal dependencies to select actions. In artificial agents, little work has directly addressed (1) which architectural components are necessary for successful development of this ability, (2) how this timing ability comes to be represented in the units and actions of the agent, and (3) whether the resulting behavior of the system converges on solutions similar to those of biology. Here we studied interval timing abilities in deep reinforcement learning agents trained end-to-end on an interval reproduction paradigm inspired by experimental literature on mechanisms of timing. We characterize the strategies developed by recurrent and feedforward agents, which both succeed at temporal reproduction using distinct mechanisms, some of which bear specific and intriguing similarities to biological systems. These findings advance our understanding of how agents come to represent time, and they highlight the value of experimentally inspired approaches to characterizing agent abilities.

Data augmentation is a crucial technique for improving model generalization and robustness, particularly in deep learning models where training data is limited. Although many augmentation methods have been developed for time series classification, most are not directly applicable to time series forecasting due to the need to preserve temporal coherence. In this work, we propose Temporal Patch Shuffle (TPS), a simple and model-agnostic data augmentation method for forecasting that extracts overlapping temporal patches, selectively shuffles a subset of patches using variance-based ordering as a conservative heuristic, and reconstructs the sequence by averaging overlapping regions. This design increases sample diversity while preserving forecast-consistent local temporal structure. We extensively evaluate TPS across nine long-term forecasting datasets using five recent model families (TSMixer, DLinear, PatchTST, TiDE, and LightTS), and across four short-term forecasting datasets using PatchTST, observing consistent performance improvements. Comprehensive ablation studies further demonstrate the effectiveness, robustness, and design rationale of the proposed method.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) advance generalization and data efficiency in time series forecasting by unified large-scale pretraining. But TSFMs remain lacking when adapting to specific downstream forecasting tasks for two reasons. First, the non-stationary and uncertain nature of time series data lead to inevitable temporal distribution shifts between historical training and future testing data, while current Supervised FineTuning (SFT)-based methods are prone to overfitting and may degrade generalization. Second, training data availability varies across forecasting tasks, requiring TSFMs to generalize well under diverse data regimes. To address these challenges, we introduce the Time series Reinforcement Finetuning (TimeRFT) paradigm for TSFM downstream adaptation, which consists of two task-specific training recipes: i) A forecasting quality-based temporal reward mechanism that conducts a multi-faceted evaluation of the contribution of each prediction step to overall forecasting accuracy. ii) A forecasting difficulty-based data selection strategy to identify time series samples with generalizable predictive patterns and informative training signals. Extensive experiments demonstrate TimeRFT can consistently outperform SFT-based adaptation methods across various real-world forecasting tasks and training data regimes, enhancing prediction accuracy and generalization against unforeseen distribution shifts.

Although deep learning has produced dazzling successes for applications of image, speech, and video processing in the past few years, most trainings are with suboptimal hyper-parameters, requiring unnecessarily long training times. Setting the hyper-parameters remains a black art that requires years of experience to acquire. This report proposes several efficient ways to set the hyper-parameters that significantly reduce training time and improves performance. Specifically, this report shows how to examine the training validation/test loss function for subtle clues of underfitting and overfitting and suggests guidelines for moving toward the optimal balance point. Then it discusses how to increase/decrease the learning rate/momentum to speed up training. Our experiments show that it is crucial to balance every manner of regularization for each dataset and architecture. Weight decay is used as a sample regularizer to show how its optimal value is tightly coupled with the learning rates and momentums. Files to help replicate the results reported here are available.

Self-supervised learning has garnered increasing attention in time series analysis for benefiting various downstream tasks and reducing reliance on labeled data. Despite its effectiveness, existing methods often struggle to comprehensively capture both long-term dynamic evolution and subtle local patterns in a unified manner. In this work, we propose TimeDART, a novel self-supervised time series pre-training framework that unifies two powerful generative paradigms to learn more transferable representations. Specifically, we first employ a causal Transformer encoder, accompanied by a patch-based embedding strategy, to model the evolving trends from left to right. Building on this global modeling, we further introduce a denoising diffusion process to capture fine-grained local patterns through forward diffusion and reverse denoising. Finally, we optimize the model in an autoregressive manner. As a result, TimeDART effectively accounts for both global and local sequence features in a coherent way. We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets for time series forecasting and classification. The experimental results demonstrate that TimeDART consistently outperforms previous compared methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/Melmaphother/TimeDART.

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on standard benchmark datasets. This persistent gap can be attributed to the black-box nature of deep learning architectures and the inherent limitations of current evaluation frameworks, which frequently lack the capacity to provide clear, quantitative insights into the specific strengths and weaknesses of different models, thereby complicating the selection of appropriate models for particular forecasting scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a synthetic data-driven evaluation paradigm, SynTSBench, that systematically assesses fundamental modeling capabilities of time series forecasting models through programmable feature configuration. Our framework isolates confounding factors and establishes an interpretable evaluation system with three core analytical dimensions: (1) temporal feature decomposition and capability mapping, which enables systematic evaluation of model capacities to learn specific pattern types; (2) robustness analysis under data irregularities, which quantifies noise tolerance thresholds and anomaly recovery capabilities; and (3) theoretical optimum benchmarking, which establishes performance boundaries for each pattern type-enabling direct comparison between model predictions and mathematical optima. Our experiments show that current deep learning models do not universally approach optimal baselines across all types of temporal features.The code is available at https://github.com/TanQitai/SynTSBench

The rapid expansion of digital information and knowledge across structured and unstructured sources has heightened the importance of Information Retrieval (IR). While dense retrieval methods have substantially improved semantic matching for general queries, they consistently underperform on queries with explicit temporal constraints--often those containing numerical expressions and time specifiers such as ``in 2015.'' Existing approaches to Temporal Information Retrieval (TIR) improve temporal reasoning but often suffer from catastrophic forgetting, leading to reduced performance on non-temporal queries. To address this, we propose Time-Specifier Model Merging (TSM), a novel method that enhances temporal retrieval while preserving accuracy on non-temporal queries. TSM trains specialized retrievers for individual time specifiers and merges them in to a unified model, enabling precise handling of temporal constraints without compromising non-temporal retrieval. Extensive experiments on both temporal and non-temporal datasets demonstrate that TSM significantly improves performance on temporally constrained queries while maintaining strong results on non-temporal queries, consistently outperforming other baseline methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/seungyoonee/TSM .

Overparameterized Neural Networks (NN) display state-of-the-art performance. However, there is a growing need for smaller, energy-efficient, neural networks tobe able to use machine learning applications on devices with limited computational resources. A popular approach consists of using pruning techniques. While these techniques have traditionally focused on pruning pre-trained NN (LeCun et al.,1990; Hassibi et al., 1993), recent work by Lee et al. (2018) has shown promising results when pruning at initialization. However, for Deep NNs, such procedures remain unsatisfactory as the resulting pruned networks can be difficult to train and, for instance, they do not prevent one layer from being fully pruned. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis of Magnitude and Gradient based pruning at initialization and training of sparse architectures. This allows us to propose novel principled approaches which we validate experimentally on a variety of NN architectures.

Existing Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection (MTSAD) frameworks increasingly rely on integrating Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with sequence models to capture complex spatio-temporal dependencies. However, less attention is paid to the spatial over-generalization problem, where unconstrained structural modeling indiscriminately reconstructs anomalies, inevitably degrading detection recall. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel framework that unifies spatio-temporal modeling through a joint prior-observation adversarial learning paradigm. In the spatial dimension, the model alternately learns adjacency matrices as structural prior and models the association discrepancy between prior and data-driven observation in a minimax manner during training. Such adversarial optimization not only improves the model sensitivity for time-wise detection, but also enables the model to localize anomalies to specific channels. To systematically evaluate this anomaly localization capability, we further construct a synthetic benchmark equipped with precise channel-wise annotations. Extensive experiments across public datasets and our dedicated benchmark demonstrate that the proposed framework establishes a new state-of-the-art in both time-wise detection and spatial localization tasks. Our code, pre-trained models, and benchmark are publicly available at https://github.com/anocodetest1/POST.

In large language model (LLM) unlearning, private information is required to be removed. Task arithmetic unlearns by subtracting a specific task vector (TV)--defined as the parameter difference between a privacy-information-tuned model and the original model. While efficient, it can cause over-forgetting by disrupting parameters essential for retaining other information. Motivated by the observation that each parameter exhibits different importance for forgetting versus retention, we propose a per-parameter task arithmetic (PerTA) mechanism to rescale the TV, allowing per-parameter adjustment. These weights quantify the relative importance of each parameter for forgetting versus retention, estimated via gradients (i.e., PerTA-grad) or the diagonal Fisher information approximation (i.e., PerTA-fisher). Moreover, we discuss the effectiveness of PerTA, extend it to a more general form, and provide further analysis. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PerTA consistently improves upon standard TV, and in many cases surpasses widely used training-based unlearning methods in both forgetting effectiveness and overall model utility. By retaining the efficiency of task arithmetic while mitigating over-forgetting, PerTA offers a principled and practical framework for LLM unlearning.

Robustness of image classification has several benchmarks, but their video counterparts are absent. In video classification temporal dimension introduces additional degrees of freedom for adversarial attacks, defenses, and preprocessing. Temporal sampling, perturbation budgets, and metric aggregation also interact in ways with no direct analogue in the image setting. Therefore, robustness for video classifiers is studied across scattered, incompatible implementations, making reported numbers hard to reproduce and analyze. We introduce VCR-Bench, a modular open-source benchmark framework that standardizes video loading, wrappers for classifiers, adversarial attacks and defenses, perceptual metrics, configuration presets, and result logging. VCR-Bench currently integrates 30 video classification models, 14 adversarial attacks, and 10 defense wrappers under a common evaluation protocol. We evaluate representative video classifiers, attacks, and defenses on Kinetics-400 subset, reporting clean accuracy, attack success rate, perceptual quality, runtime, and memory usage. VCR-Bench is released with documented installation, reproducible run presets, component-extension interfaces, and scripts for reproducing the reported results at https://github.com/msu-video-group/vcr-bench.

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) highlights the power of scaling test-time compute to achieve strong performance on complex tasks, such as mathematical reasoning and code generation. This raises a critical question: how should model training be modified to optimize performance under a subsequent test-time compute strategy and budget? To explore this, we focus on pass@N, a simple test-time strategy that searches for a correct answer in N independent samples. We show, surprisingly, that training with cross-entropy (CE) loss can be {it misaligned} with pass@N in that pass@N accuracy {it decreases} with longer training. We explain the origins of this misalignment in terms of model overconfidence induced by CE, and experimentally verify our prediction of overconfidence as an impediment to scaling test-time compute via pass@N. Furthermore we suggest a principled, modified training loss that is better aligned to pass@N by limiting model confidence and rescuing pass@N test performance. Our algorithm demonstrates improved mathematical reasoning on MATH and MiniF2F benchmarks under several scenarios: (1) providing answers to math questions; and (2) proving theorems by searching over proof trees of varying shapes. Overall our work underscores the importance of co-designing two traditionally separate phases of LLM development: training-time protocols and test-time search and reasoning strategies.

Time Series Language Models (TSLMs) enable language-based understanding and reasoning over temporal data, yet a fundamental question remains: what information should their time-series representations preserve, and what variation should they factor out? Existing TSLMs typically expose the language model to a single representation, imposing a fixed inductive bias across downstream tasks. We instead introduce complementary representations as a design principle for time-series reasoning. Our model combines two visual views: line plots preserve absolute measurements and the observed coordinate frame, while normalized delay embeddings factor out positive amplitude rescaling and offsets while exposing temporal structure. Dedicated visual encoders integrate both views into a shared language model through visual tokens and multi-level feature fusion. Evaluation-time interventions verify that the two views exhibit distinct invariance profiles, while single-view ablations show that their combination is particularly beneficial beyond basic perception, with the large gains in prediction and reasoning. Built on Qwen3-VL-8B, our dual-view model improves overall TSRBench accuracy from 44.5% with line plots alone to 53.2%, substantially exceeding the strongest evaluated dedicated TSLM baseline at 36.7%. It further achieves 89.9% accuracy on TSExam and 86.8% numerical accuracy on multivariate ChatTS alignment. Together, these results demonstrate that complementary representations provide an effective design principle for general-purpose TSLMs, enabling models to exploit temporal structure without sacrificing access to the original measurement frame.

Model editing keeps large language models (LLMs) up to date without retraining, but temporal facts expose a limitation of the prevailing locate-and-edit paradigm: an update is not always a replacement. When a fact changes, the new answer should become current while the old answer may remain correct in historical time contexts. Building on this insight, we use causal tracing to show that LLMs already support this distinction via a two-stage internal computation: early MLP layers retrieve a time-agnostic subject representation, and later layers modulate it with temporal context to yield the time-correct answer. Motivated by this finding, we introduce PRISM Edit, which optimizes a single polysemous representation across temporal contexts and leverages the model's inherent modulation pathway to route it to temporally correct predictions, without any architectural modification. We evaluate on TimeConflict, a new temporal editing benchmark we introduce, and on temporally augmented CounterFact. PRISM Edit improves over the best baseline by +23.3 Temporal Consistency (TC) and +33.7 Current Relative-time Score (CRS) on average while being more than 2x faster. Code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/AnonymousStudy972/PRISM-Edit.

Test-Time Scaling (TTS) has significantly enhanced the capabilities of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) but introduces a critical side-effect known as Overthinking. We conduct a preliminary study to rethink this phenomenon from a fine-grained perspective. We observe that LRMs frequently conduct repetitive self-verification without revision even after obtaining the final answer during the reasoning process. We formally define this specific position where the answer first stabilizes as the Reasoning Anchor. By analyzing pre- and post-anchor reasoning behaviors, we uncover the structural redundancy fixed in LRMs: the meaningless repetitive verification after deriving the first complete answer, which we term the Answer-Stable Tail (AST). Motivated by this observation, we propose Anchor-based Process Reward (APR), a structure-aware reward shaping method that localizes the reasoning anchor and penalizes exclusively the post-anchor AST. Leveraging the policy optimization algorithm suitable for length penalties, our APR models achieved the performance-efficiency Pareto frontier at 1.5B and 7B scales averaged across five mathematical reasoning datasets while requiring substantially fewer computational resources for RL training.

Sequential learning paradigms pose challenges for gradient-based deep learning due to difficulties incorporating new data and retaining prior knowledge. While Gaussian processes elegantly tackle these problems, they struggle with scalability and handling rich inputs, such as images. To address these issues, we introduce a technique that converts neural networks from weight space to function space, through a dual parameterization. Our parameterization offers: (i) a way to scale function-space methods to large data sets via sparsification, (ii) retention of prior knowledge when access to past data is limited, and (iii) a mechanism to incorporate new data without retraining. Our experiments demonstrate that we can retain knowledge in continual learning and incorporate new data efficiently. We further show its strengths in uncertainty quantification and guiding exploration in model-based RL. Further information and code is available on the project website.

Diffusion large language models (dLLMs) generate text through iterative denoising, yet current decoding strategies discard rich intermediate predictions in favor of the final output. Our work here reveals a critical phenomenon, temporal oscillation, where correct answers often emerge in the middle process, but are overwritten in later denoising steps. To address this issue, we introduce two complementary methods that exploit temporal consistency: 1) Temporal Self-Consistency Voting, a training-free, test-time decoding strategy that aggregates predictions across denoising steps to select the most consistent output; and 2) a post-training method termed Temporal Consistency Reinforcement, which uses Temporal Semantic Entropy (TSE), a measure of semantic stability across intermediate predictions, as a reward signal to encourage stable generations. Empirical results across multiple benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Using the negative TSE reward alone, we observe a remarkable average improvement of 24.7% on the Countdown dataset over an existing dLLM. Combined with the accuracy reward, we achieve absolute gains of 2.0% on GSM8K, 4.3% on MATH500, 6.6% on SVAMP, and 25.3% on Countdown, respectively. Our findings underscore the untapped potential of temporal dynamics in dLLMs and offer two simple yet effective tools to harness them.

Time-series data augmentation mitigates the issue of insufficient training data for deep learning models. Yet, existing augmentation methods are mainly designed for classification, where class labels can be preserved even if augmentation alters the temporal dynamics. We note that augmentation designed for forecasting requires diversity as well as coherence with the original temporal dynamics. As time-series data generated by real-life physical processes exhibit characteristics in both the time and frequency domains, we propose to combine Spectral and Time Augmentation (STAug) for generating more diverse and coherent samples. Specifically, in the frequency domain, we use the Empirical Mode Decomposition to decompose a time series and reassemble the subcomponents with random weights. This way, we generate diverse samples while being coherent with the original temporal relationships as they contain the same set of base components. In the time domain, we adapt a mix-up strategy that generates diverse as well as linearly in-between coherent samples. Experiments on five real-world time-series datasets demonstrate that STAug outperforms the base models without data augmentation as well as state-of-the-art augmentation methods.

Director-style prompting, robotic action prediction, and interactive video agents demand temporal grounding over concurrent events -- a regime in which 68% of general clips and over 99% of robotics/gameplay clips contain overlapping events, yet existing multi-event generators rest on a single-active-prompt assumption. However, modern video generators, such as Diffusion Transformers (DiT), represent time as discrete points through point-wise positional encodings. This formulation creates a fundamental dimension mismatch: temporally extended intervals and overlapping events are mathematically unrepresentable to the attention mechanism. In this paper, we propose Time Interval Encoding (TIE), a principled, plug-and-play interval-aware generalization of rotary embeddings that elevates time intervals to first-class primitives inside DiT cross-attention. Rather than introducing another heuristic interval embedding, we show that, within RoPE-compatible bilinear attention, TIE is characterized by two basic principles: Temporal Integrability, which requires an event to aggregate positional evidence over its full duration, and Duration Invariance, which removes the trivial bias toward longer intervals. Under a uniform kernel, this characterization yields an efficient closed-form sinc-based solution that preserves the standard attention interface and naturally attenuates boundary noise through interval integration. Empirically, TIE preserves the visual quality of the base DiT model while substantially improving temporal controllability. In our experiments on the OmniEvents dataset, it improves human-verified Temporal Constraint Satisfaction Rate from 77.34% to 96.03% and reduces temporal boundary error from 0.261s to 0.073s, while also improving trajectory-level temporal alignment metrics. The code and dataset are available at https://github.com/MatrixTeam-AI/TIE.

This paper introduces UnSeenTimeQA, a novel time-sensitive question-answering (TSQA) benchmark that diverges from traditional TSQA benchmarks by avoiding factual and web-searchable queries. We present a series of time-sensitive event scenarios decoupled from real-world factual information. It requires large language models (LLMs) to engage in genuine temporal reasoning, disassociating from the knowledge acquired during the pre-training phase. Our evaluation of six open-source LLMs (ranging from 2B to 70B in size) and three closed-source LLMs reveal that the questions from the UnSeenTimeQA present substantial challenges. This indicates the models' difficulties in handling complex temporal reasoning scenarios. Additionally, we present several analyses shedding light on the models' performance in answering time-sensitive questions.

Temporal distribution shift (TDS) erodes the long-term accuracy of recommender systems, yet industrial practice still relies on periodic incremental training, which struggles to capture both stable and transient patterns. Existing approaches such as invariant learning and self-supervised learning offer partial solutions but often suffer from unstable temporal generalization, representation collapse, or inefficient data utilization. To address these limitations, we propose ELBO_TDS, a probabilistic framework that integrates seamlessly into industry-scale incremental learning pipelines. First, we identify key shifting factors through statistical analysis of real-world production data and design a simple yet effective data augmentation strategy that resamples these time-varying factors to extend the training support. Second, to harness the benefits of this extended distribution while preventing representation collapse, we model the temporal recommendation scenario using a causal graph and derive a self-supervised variational objective, ELBO_TDS, grounded in the causal structure. Extensive experiments supported by both theoretical and empirical analysis demonstrate that our method achieves superior temporal generalization, yielding a 2.33\% uplift in GMV per user and has been successfully deployed in Shopee Product Search. Code is available at https://github.com/FuCongResearchSquad/ELBO4TDS.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown nearly saturated performance on many natural language processing (NLP) tasks. As a result, it is natural for people to believe that LLMs have also mastered abilities such as time understanding and reasoning. However, research on the temporal sensitivity of LLMs has been insufficiently emphasized. To fill this gap, this paper constructs Multiple Sensitive Factors Time QA (MenatQA), which encompasses three temporal factors (scope factor, order factor, counterfactual factor) with total 2,853 samples for evaluating the time comprehension and reasoning abilities of LLMs. This paper tests current mainstream LLMs with different parameter sizes, ranging from billions to hundreds of billions. The results show most LLMs fall behind smaller temporal reasoning models with different degree on these factors. In specific, LLMs show a significant vulnerability to temporal biases and depend heavily on the temporal information provided in questions. Furthermore, this paper undertakes a preliminary investigation into potential improvement strategies by devising specific prompts and leveraging external tools. These approaches serve as valuable baselines or references for future research endeavors.

Most algorithms for representation learning and link prediction on relational data are designed for static data. However, the data to which they are applied typically evolves over time, including online social networks or interactions between users and items in recommender systems. This is also the case for graph-structured knowledge bases -- knowledge graphs -- which contain facts that are valid only for specific points in time. In such contexts, it becomes crucial to correctly identify missing links at a precise time point, i.e. the temporal prediction link task. Recently, Lacroix et al. and Sadeghian et al. proposed a solution to the problem of link prediction for knowledge graphs under temporal constraints inspired by the canonical decomposition of 4-order tensors, where they regularise the representations of time steps by enforcing temporal smoothing, i.e. by learning similar transformation for adjacent timestamps. However, the impact of the choice of temporal regularisation terms is still poorly understood. In this work, we systematically analyse several choices of temporal smoothing regularisers using linear functions and recurrent architectures. In our experiments, we show that by carefully selecting the temporal smoothing regulariser and regularisation weight, a simple method like TNTComplEx can produce significantly more accurate results than state-of-the-art methods on three widely used temporal link prediction datasets. Furthermore, we evaluate the impact of a wide range of temporal smoothing regularisers on two state-of-the-art temporal link prediction models. Our work shows that simple tensor factorisation models can produce new state-of-the-art results using newly proposed temporal regularisers, highlighting a promising avenue for future research.

In-context learning (ICL) enables task adaptation at inference time by conditioning on demonstrations rather than updating model parameters. Although recent time-series foundation models incorporate contextual conditioning, retrieval, or example-based prompting, they typically rely on implicit positional structure or task-specific objectives rather than explicit instruction-conditioned input-output demonstrations. We introduce iAmTime, a time-series foundation model trained with instruction-conditioned amortized meta-learning to infer tasks directly from example demonstrations. iAmTime represents each episode as a structured prompt over historical context and future-known variables using specialized semantic tokens that attend to designated time-series regions, exchange information across demonstrations, and inject task information into the query representation. The model combines a Hierarchical Multi-Scope Transformer Encoder, which captures temporal and covariate dynamics while inferring latent task structure from demonstrated input-output mappings, with a Task-Conditioned Patch Decoder, which adapts decoding through expert-based routing. We train iAmTime on large-scale real and synthetic corpora using supervised and self-supervised instruction-conditioned tasks, including forecasting, imputation, reconstruction, classification, anomaly detection, and source de-mixing. Across diverse domains, frequencies, and horizons, iAmTime improves zero-shot adaptation over strong time-series foundation baselines on probabilistic and point forecasting benchmarks, while achieving competitive or superior performance on four non-forecasting tasks.

In time series editing, we aim to modify some properties of a given time series without altering others. For example, when analyzing a hospital patient's blood pressure, we may add a sudden early drop and observe how it impacts their future while preserving other conditions. Existing diffusion-based editors rely on rigid, predefined attribute vectors as conditions and produce all-or-nothing edits through sampling. This attribute- and sampling-based approach limits flexibility in condition format and lacks customizable control over editing strength. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Instruction-based Time Series Editing, where users specify intended edits using natural language. This allows users to express a wider range of edits in a more accessible format. We then introduce InstructTime, the first instruction-based time series editor. InstructTime takes in time series and instructions, embeds them into a shared multi-modal representation space, then decodes their embeddings to generate edited time series. By learning a structured multi-modal representation space, we can easily interpolate between embeddings to achieve varying degrees of edit. To handle local and global edits together, we propose multi-resolution encoders. In our experiments, we use synthetic and real datasets and find that InstructTime is a state-of-the-art time series editor: InstructTime achieves high-quality edits with controllable strength, can generalize to unseen instructions, and can be easily adapted to unseen conditions through few-shot learning.

Understanding how overparameterized neural networks generalize despite perfect interpolation of noisy training data is a fundamental question. Mallinar et. al. 2022 noted that neural networks seem to often exhibit ``tempered overfitting'', wherein the population risk does not converge to the Bayes optimal error, but neither does it approach infinity, yielding non-trivial generalization. However, this has not been studied rigorously. We provide the first rigorous analysis of the overfitting behavior of regression with minimum norm (ell_2 of weights), focusing on univariate two-layer ReLU networks. We show overfitting is tempered (with high probability) when measured with respect to the L_1 loss, but also show that the situation is more complex than suggested by Mallinar et. al., and overfitting is catastrophic with respect to the L_2 loss, or when taking an expectation over the training set.

Multimodal foundation models (MFMs) have demonstrated significant success in tasks such as visual captioning, question answering, and image-text retrieval. However, these models face inherent limitations due to their finite internal capacity, which restricts their ability to process extended temporal sequences, a crucial requirement for comprehensive video and audio analysis. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a specialized cognitive module, temporal working memory (TWM), which aims to enhance the temporal modeling capabilities of MFMs. It selectively retains task-relevant information across temporal dimensions, ensuring that critical details are preserved throughout the processing of video and audio content. The TWM uses a query-guided attention approach to focus on the most informative multimodal segments within temporal sequences. By retaining only the most relevant content, TWM optimizes the use of the model's limited capacity, enhancing its temporal modeling ability. This plug-and-play module can be easily integrated into existing MFMs. With our TWM, nine state-of-the-art models exhibit significant performance improvements across tasks such as video captioning, question answering, and video-text retrieval. By enhancing temporal modeling, TWM extends the capability of MFMs to handle complex, time-sensitive data effectively. Our code is available at https://github.com/xid32/NAACL_2025_TWM.

Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) has recently emerged as a promising approach for tackling the robustness challenge under distribution shifts. However, the lack of consistent settings and systematic studies in prior literature hinders thorough assessments of existing methods. To address this issue, we present TTAB, a test-time adaptation benchmark that encompasses ten state-of-the-art algorithms, a diverse array of distribution shifts, and two evaluation protocols. Through extensive experiments, our benchmark reveals three common pitfalls in prior efforts. First, selecting appropriate hyper-parameters, especially for model selection, is exceedingly difficult due to online batch dependency. Second, the effectiveness of TTA varies greatly depending on the quality and properties of the model being adapted. Third, even under optimal algorithmic conditions, none of the existing methods are capable of addressing all common types of distribution shifts. Our findings underscore the need for future research in the field to conduct rigorous evaluations on a broader set of models and shifts, and to re-examine the assumptions behind the empirical success of TTA. Our code is available at https://github.com/lins-lab/ttab.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as powerful foundation models for tabular causal inference, yet their extension to time series remains limited by the absence of synthetic data generators that provide interventional targets. Existing time series benchmarks generate observational data with ground-truth causal graphs but lack the interventional data required for training causal foundation models. To address this, we propose CausalTimePrior, a principled framework for generating synthetic temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with paired observational and interventional time series. Our prior supports configurable causal graph structures, nonlinear autoregressive mechanisms, regime-switching dynamics, and multiple intervention types (hard, soft, time-varying). We demonstrate that PFNs trained on CausalTimePrior can perform in-context causal effect estimation on held-out TSCMs, establishing a pathway toward foundation models for time series causal inference.

Understanding temporal relations and answering time-sensitive questions is crucial yet a challenging task for question-answering systems powered by large language models (LLMs). Existing approaches either update the parametric knowledge of LLMs with new facts, which is resource-intensive and often impractical, or integrate LLMs with external knowledge retrieval (i.e., retrieval-augmented generation). However, off-the-shelf retrievers often struggle to identify relevant documents that require intensive temporal reasoning. To systematically study time-sensitive question answering, we introduce the TempRAGEval benchmark, which repurposes existing datasets by incorporating temporal perturbations and gold evidence labels. As anticipated, all existing retrieval methods struggle with these temporal reasoning-intensive questions. We further propose Modular Retrieval (MRAG), a trainless framework that includes three modules: (1) Question Processing that decomposes question into a main content and a temporal constraint; (2) Retrieval and Summarization that retrieves evidence and uses LLMs to summarize according to the main content; (3) Semantic-Temporal Hybrid Ranking that scores each evidence summarization based on both semantic and temporal relevance. On TempRAGEval, MRAG significantly outperforms baseline retrievers in retrieval performance, leading to further improvements in final answer accuracy.

Existing robot policy memories typically evolve with observation sequences, implicitly treating each update as the same amount of physical time. Yet identical observation histories can span different durations and require different actions, exposing physical time as a missing dimension of policy memory. We introduce Temporal Flow Policy (TFP), which learns memory dynamics to retain past events and evolve the memory state over measured time intervals. Observations and prior memory determine the content and time scales of each transition; elapsed time determines how far the state advances. TFP conditions diffusion and flow-matching policies through this memory state and is trained with their native imitation objectives. We evaluate TFP with Diffusion Policy and π_{0.5} through controlled comparisons of memory designs. These experiments show that successful timing depends on both measured intervals and retained history. TFP achieves higher average success than the recurrent and state-space memories we equip with the same intervals and than a variant that feeds the interval to a learned gate. Memory readouts recover the time since an event and motion information after occlusion. Changing the supplied intervals systematically delays or advances actions, linking time inputs to behavior. Real-robot tasks requiring timing or memory, together with LIBERO evaluations, demonstrate benefits in physical and general manipulation. These results suggest viewing robot memory not as stored observation history, but as a state that retains past events and evolves with physical time.

The diversity of time series applications and scarcity of domain-specific data highlight the need for time-series models with strong few-shot learning capabilities. In this work, we propose a novel training scheme and a transformer-based architecture, collectively referred to as TimePFN, for multivariate time-series (MTS) forecasting. TimePFN is based on the concept of Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFN), which aims to approximate Bayesian inference. Our approach consists of (1) generating synthetic MTS data through diverse Gaussian process kernels and the linear coregionalization method, and (2) a novel MTS architecture capable of utilizing both temporal and cross-channel dependencies across all input patches. We evaluate TimePFN on several benchmark datasets and demonstrate that it outperforms the existing state-of-the-art models for MTS forecasting in both zero-shot and few-shot settings. Notably, fine-tuning TimePFN with as few as 500 data points nearly matches full dataset training error, and even 50 data points yield competitive results. We also find that TimePFN exhibits strong univariate forecasting performance, attesting to its generalization ability. Overall, this work unlocks the power of synthetic data priors for MTS forecasting and facilitates strong zero- and few-shot forecasting performance.

LWM-Temporal is a new member of the Large Wireless Models (LWM) family that targets the spatiotemporal nature of wireless channels. Designed as a task-agnostic foundation model, LWM-Temporal learns universal channel embeddings that capture mobility-induced evolution and are reusable across various downstream tasks. To achieve this objective, LWM-Temporal operates in the angle-delay-time domain and introduces Sparse Spatio-Temporal Attention (SSTA), a propagation-aligned attention mechanism that restricts interactions to physically plausible neighborhoods, reducing attention complexity by an order of magnitude while preserving geometry-consistent dependencies. LWM-Temporal is pretrained in a self-supervised manner using a physics-informed masking curriculum that emulates realistic occlusions, pilot sparsity, and measurement impairments. Experimental results on channel prediction across multiple mobility regimes show consistent improvements over strong baselines, particularly under long horizons and limited fine-tuning data, highlighting the importance of geometry-aware architectures and geometry-consistent pretraining for learning transferable spatiotemporal wireless representations.

Neural surrogates for partial differential equations (PDEs) have become popular due to their potential to quickly simulate physics. With a few exceptions, neural surrogates generally treat the forward evolution of time-dependent PDEs as a black box by directly predicting the next state. While this is a natural and easy framework for applying neural surrogates, it can be an over-simplified and rigid framework for predicting physics. In this work, we propose an alternative framework in which neural solvers predict the temporal derivative and an ODE integrator forwards the solution in time, which has little overhead and is broadly applicable across model architectures and PDEs. We find that by simply changing the training target and introducing numerical integration during inference, neural surrogates can gain accuracy and stability. Predicting temporal derivatives also allows models to not be constrained to a specific temporal discretization, allowing for flexible time-stepping during inference or training on higher-resolution PDE data. Lastly, we investigate why this new framework can be beneficial and in what situations does it work well.

Recently, denoising diffusion models have led to significant breakthroughs in the generation of images, audio and text. However, it is still an open question on how to adapt their strong modeling ability to model time series. In this paper, we propose TimeDiff, a non-autoregressive diffusion model that achieves high-quality time series prediction with the introduction of two novel conditioning mechanisms: future mixup and autoregressive initialization. Similar to teacher forcing, future mixup allows parts of the ground-truth future predictions for conditioning, while autoregressive initialization helps better initialize the model with basic time series patterns such as short-term trends. Extensive experiments are performed on nine real-world datasets. Results show that TimeDiff consistently outperforms existing time series diffusion models, and also achieves the best overall performance across a variety of the existing strong baselines (including transformers and FiLM).

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly when considering exponential or non-parametric kernels. Although non-parametric kernels are an option, such models require large datasets. While exponential kernels are more data efficient and relevant for specific applications where events immediately trigger more events, they are ill-suited for applications where latencies need to be estimated, such as in neuroscience. This work aims to offer an efficient solution to TPP inference using general parametric kernels with finite support. The developed solution consists of a fast ell_2 gradient-based solver leveraging a discretized version of the events. After theoretically supporting the use of discretization, the statistical and computational efficiency of the novel approach is demonstrated through various numerical experiments. Finally, the method's effectiveness is evaluated by modeling the occurrence of stimuli-induced patterns from brain signals recorded with magnetoencephalography (MEG). Given the use of general parametric kernels, results show that the proposed approach leads to an improved estimation of pattern latency than the state-of-the-art.

We propose a new class of parameterizations for spatio-temporal point processes which leverage Neural ODEs as a computational method and enable flexible, high-fidelity models of discrete events that are localized in continuous time and space. Central to our approach is a combination of continuous-time neural networks with two novel neural architectures, i.e., Jump and Attentive Continuous-time Normalizing Flows. This approach allows us to learn complex distributions for both the spatial and temporal domain and to condition non-trivially on the observed event history. We validate our models on data sets from a wide variety of contexts such as seismology, epidemiology, urban mobility, and neuroscience.

As hyperparameter tuning becomes increasingly costly at scale, efficient tuning methods are essential. Yet principles for guiding hyperparameter tuning remain limited. In this work, we seek to establish such principles by considering a broad range of hyperparameters, including batch size, learning rate, and weight decay. We identify a phenomenon we call trajectory invariance, where pre-training loss curves, gradient noise, and gradient norm exhibit invariance--closely overlapping--with respect to a quantity that combines learning rate and weight decay. This phenomenon effectively reduces the original two-dimensional hyperparameter space to one dimension, yielding an efficient tuning rule: follow the salient direction revealed by trajectory invariance. Furthermore, we refine previous scaling laws and challenge several existing viewpoints. Overall, our work proposes new principles for efficient tuning and inspires future research on scaling laws.

One puzzling artifact in machine learning dubbed grokking is where delayed generalization is achieved tenfolds of iterations after near perfect overfitting to the training data. Focusing on the long delay itself on behalf of machine learning practitioners, our goal is to accelerate generalization of a model under grokking phenomenon. By regarding a series of gradients of a parameter over training iterations as a random signal over time, we can spectrally decompose the parameter trajectories under gradient descent into two components: the fast-varying, overfitting-yielding component and the slow-varying, generalization-inducing component. This analysis allows us to accelerate the grokking phenomenon more than times 50 with only a few lines of code that amplifies the slow-varying components of gradients. The experiments show that our algorithm applies to diverse tasks involving images, languages, and graphs, enabling practical availability of this peculiar artifact of sudden generalization. Our code is available at https://github.com/ironjr/grokfast.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

Test-time training (TTT) adapts model parameters on unlabeled test instances during inference time, which continuously extends capabilities beyond the reach of offline training. Despite initial gains, existing TTT methods for LRMs plateau quickly and do not benefit from additional test-time compute. Without external calibration, the self-generated reward signal increasingly drifts as the policy model evolves, leading to both performance plateaus and diversity collapse. We propose TEMPO, a TTT framework that interleaves policy refinement on unlabeled questions with periodic critic recalibration on a labeled dataset. By formalizing this alternating procedure through the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, we reveal that prior methods can be interpreted as incomplete variants that omit the crucial recalibration step. Reintroducing this step tightens the evidence lower bound (ELBO) and enables sustained improvement. Across diverse model families (Qwen3 and OLMO3) and reasoning tasks, TEMPO improves OLMO3-7B on AIME 2024 from 33.0% to 51.1% and Qwen3-14B from 42.3% to 65.8%, while maintaining high diversity.

Real-world time series often exhibit a non-stationary nature, degrading the performance of pre-trained forecasting models. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this by adjusting models during inference, but existing methods typically update the full model, increasing memory and compute costs. We propose PETSA, a parameter-efficient method that adapts forecasters at test time by only updating small calibration modules on the input and output. PETSA uses low-rank adapters and dynamic gating to adjust representations without retraining. To maintain accuracy despite limited adaptation capacity, we introduce a specialized loss combining three components: (1) a robust term, (2) a frequency-domain term to preserve periodicity, and (3) a patch-wise structural term for structural alignment. PETSA improves the adaptability of various forecasting backbones while requiring fewer parameters than baselines. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show that PETSA achieves competitive or better performance across all horizons. Our code is available at: https://github.com/BorealisAI/PETSA

Large pre-trained models for zero/few-shot learning excel in language and vision domains but encounter challenges in multivariate time series (TS) due to the diverse nature and scarcity of publicly available pre-training data. Consequently, there has been a recent surge in utilizing pre-trained large language models (LLMs) with token adaptations for TS forecasting. These approaches employ cross-domain transfer learning and surprisingly yield impressive results. However, these models are typically very slow and large (~billion parameters) and do not consider cross-channel correlations. To address this, we present Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), a significantly small model based on the lightweight TSMixer architecture. TTM marks the first success in developing fast and tiny general pre-trained models (<1M parameters), exclusively trained on public TS datasets, with effective transfer learning capabilities for forecasting. To tackle the complexity of pre-training on multiple datasets with varied temporal resolutions, we introduce several novel enhancements such as adaptive patching, dataset augmentation via downsampling, and resolution prefix tuning. Moreover, we employ a multi-level modeling strategy to effectively model channel correlations and infuse exogenous signals during fine-tuning, a crucial capability lacking in existing benchmarks. TTM shows significant accuracy gains (12-38\%) over popular benchmarks in few/zero-shot forecasting. It also drastically reduces the compute needs as compared to LLM-TS methods, with a 14X cut in learnable parameters, 106X less total parameters, and substantial reductions in fine-tuning (65X) and inference time (54X). In fact, TTM's zero-shot often surpasses the few-shot results in many popular benchmarks, highlighting the efficacy of our approach. Code and pre-trained models will be open-sourced.

Recent developments in large language models have shown advantages in reallocating a notable share of computational resource from training time to inference time. However, the principles behind inference time scaling are not well understood. In this paper, we introduce an analytically tractable model of inference-time scaling: Bayesian linear regression with a reward-weighted sampler, where the reward is determined from a linear model, modeling LLM-as-a-judge scenario. We study this problem in the high-dimensional regime, where the deterministic equivalents dictate a closed-form expression for the posterior predictive mean and variance. We analyze the generalization error when training data are sampled from a teacher model. We draw k inference-time samples and select via softmax at a temperature applied to a quadratic reward. When the reward is not too different from the teacher, the generalization error decreases monotonically with increasing inference time samples k. However, the specific reward that optimizes inference-time selection generally differs from the teacher. In contrast, substantial reward misspecification induces a finite optimal k beyond which more sampling can increase the generalization error. For fixed k, there exists an optimal sampling temperature. We experimentally verify these facts in large language model inference with an additional large language model as a judge. In the "best-of-k" limit with the teacher as reward, we theoretically show that the generalization error decays as Θ(1/k^2) and determine the leading coefficient via extreme value theory. These formulas delineate domains where scaling inference-time computation is provably preferable to collecting more data. Finally, we demonstrate that when task difficulty increases, the previously mentioned advantage of inference-time compute degrades.

In this work, we leverage pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance time-series forecasting. Mirroring the growing interest in unifying models for Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision, we envision creating an analogous model for long-term time-series forecasting. Due to limited large-scale time-series data for building robust foundation models, our approach LLM4TS focuses on leveraging the strengths of pre-trained LLMs. By combining time-series patching with temporal encoding, we have enhanced the capability of LLMs to handle time-series data effectively. Inspired by the supervised fine-tuning in chatbot domains, we prioritize a two-stage fine-tuning process: first conducting supervised fine-tuning to orient the LLM towards time-series data, followed by task-specific downstream fine-tuning. Furthermore, to unlock the flexibility of pre-trained LLMs without extensive parameter adjustments, we adopt several Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) techniques. Drawing on these innovations, LLM4TS has yielded state-of-the-art results in long-term forecasting. Our model has also shown exceptional capabilities as both a robust representation learner and an effective few-shot learner, thanks to the knowledge transferred from the pre-trained LLM.

Time is an important feature in many applications involving events that occur synchronously and/or asynchronously. To effectively consume time information, recent studies have focused on designing new architectures. In this paper, we take an orthogonal but complementary approach by providing a model-agnostic vector representation for time, called Time2Vec, that can be easily imported into many existing and future architectures and improve their performances. We show on a range of models and problems that replacing the notion of time with its Time2Vec representation improves the performance of the final model.

Time series data is essential in various applications, including climate modeling, healthcare monitoring, and financial analytics. Understanding the contextual information associated with real-world time series data is often essential for accurate and reliable event predictions. In this paper, we introduce TimeCAP, a time-series processing framework that creatively employs Large Language Models (LLMs) as contextualizers of time series data, extending their typical usage as predictors. TimeCAP incorporates two independent LLM agents: one generates a textual summary capturing the context of the time series, while the other uses this enriched summary to make more informed predictions. In addition, TimeCAP employs a multi-modal encoder that synergizes with the LLM agents, enhancing predictive performance through mutual augmentation of inputs with in-context examples. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeCAP outperforms state-of-the-art methods for time series event prediction, including those utilizing LLMs as predictors, achieving an average improvement of 28.75% in F1 score.

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, demonstrating that TimeGPT zero-shot inference excels in performance, efficiency, and simplicity. Our study provides compelling evidence that insights from other domains of artificial intelligence can be effectively applied to time series analysis. We conclude that large-scale time series models offer an exciting opportunity to democratize access to precise predictions and reduce uncertainty by leveraging the capabilities of contemporary advancements in deep learning.

Despite significant advancements in video large multimodal models (video-LMMs), achieving effective temporal grounding in long-form videos remains a challenge for existing models. To address this limitation, we propose Temporal Preference Optimization (TPO), a novel post-training framework designed to enhance the temporal grounding capabilities of video-LMMs through preference learning. TPO adopts a self-training approach that enables models to differentiate between well-grounded and less accurate temporal responses by leveraging curated preference datasets at two granularities: localized temporal grounding, which focuses on specific video segments, and comprehensive temporal grounding, which captures extended temporal dependencies across entire video sequences. By optimizing on these preference datasets, TPO significantly enhances temporal understanding while reducing reliance on manually annotated data. Extensive experiments on three long-form video understanding benchmarks--LongVideoBench, MLVU, and Video-MME--demonstrate the effectiveness of TPO across two state-of-the-art video-LMMs. Notably, LLaVA-Video-TPO establishes itself as the leading 7B model on the Video-MME benchmark, underscoring the potential of TPO as a scalable and efficient solution for advancing temporal reasoning in long-form video understanding. Project page: https://ruili33.github.io/tpo_website.

Iterative self-training (self-distillation) repeatedly refits a model on pseudo-labels generated by its own predictions. We study this procedure in overparameterized linear regression: an initial estimator is trained on noisy labels, and each subsequent iterate is trained on fresh covariates with noiseless pseudo-labels from the previous model. In the high-dimensional regime, we derive deterministic-equivalent recursions for the prediction risk and effective noise across iterations, and prove that the empirical quantities concentrate sharply around these limits. The recursion separates two competing forces: a systematic component that grows with iteration due to progressive signal forgetting, and a stochastic component that decays due to denoising via repeated data-dependent projections. Their interaction yields a U-shaped test-risk curve and an optimal early-stopping time. In spiked covariance models, iteration further acts as an iteration-dependent spectral filter that preserves strong eigendirections while suppressing weaker ones, inducing an implicit form of soft feature selection distinct from ridge regression. Finally, we propose an iterated generalized cross-validation criterion and prove its uniform consistency for estimating the risk along the self-training trajectory, enabling fully data-driven selection of the stopping time and regularization. Experiments on synthetic covariances validate the theory and illustrate the predicted denoising-forgetting trade-off.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically trained on fixed snapshots of the web, which means that their knowledge becomes stale and their predictions risk temporal leakage: relying on information that lies in the future relative to a query. We tackle this problem by pre-training from scratch a set of GPT-style experts on disjoint two-year slices of a 2013-2024 corpus and combining them through TiMoE, a Time-aware Mixture of Language Experts. At inference time, TiMoE masks all experts whose training window ends after the query timestamp and merges the remaining log-probabilities in a shared space, guaranteeing strict causal validity while retaining the breadth of multi-period knowledge. We also release TSQA, a 10k-question benchmark whose alternatives are explicitly labelled as past, future or irrelevant, allowing fine-grained measurement of temporal hallucinations. Experiments on eight standard NLP tasks plus TSQA show that a co-adapted TiMoE variant matches or exceeds the best single-period expert and cuts future-knowledge errors by up to 15%. Our results demonstrate that modular, time-segmented pre-training paired with causal routing is a simple yet effective path toward LLMs that stay chronologically grounded without sacrificing general performance much. We open source our code at TiMoE (Github): https://github.com/epfml/TiMoE

Reasoning about time is of fundamental importance. Many facts are time-dependent. For example, athletes change teams from time to time, and different government officials are elected periodically. Previous time-dependent question answering (QA) datasets tend to be biased in either their coverage of time spans or question types. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive probing dataset \tempreason to evaluate the temporal reasoning capability of large language models. Our dataset includes questions of three temporal reasoning levels. In addition, we also propose a novel learning framework to improve the temporal reasoning capability of large language models, based on temporal span extraction and time-sensitive reinforcement learning. We conducted experiments in closed book QA, open book QA, and reasoning QA settings and demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach. Our code and data are released on https://github.com/DAMO-NLP-SG/TempReason.

Clinical case reports encode temporal patient trajectories that are often underexploited by traditional machine learning methods relying on structured data. In this work, we introduce the forecasting problem from textual time series, where timestamped clinical findings -- extracted via an LLM-assisted annotation pipeline -- serve as the primary input for prediction. We systematically evaluate a diverse suite of models, including fine-tuned decoder-based large language models and encoder-based transformers, on tasks of event occurrence prediction, temporal ordering, and survival analysis. Our experiments reveal that encoder-based models consistently achieve higher F1 scores and superior temporal concordance for short- and long-horizon event forecasting, while fine-tuned masking approaches enhance ranking performance. In contrast, instruction-tuned decoder models demonstrate a relative advantage in survival analysis, especially in early prognosis settings. Our sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the importance of time ordering, which requires clinical time series construction, as compared to text ordering, the format of the text inputs that LLMs are classically trained on. This highlights the additional benefit that can be ascertained from time-ordered corpora, with implications for temporal tasks in the era of widespread LLM use.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

Modern LLMs scale at test-time, e.g. via repeated sampling, where inference cost grows with model size and the number of samples. This creates a trade-off that pretraining scaling laws, such as Chinchilla, do not address. We present Train-to-Test (T^2) scaling laws that jointly optimize model size, training tokens, and number of inference samples under fixed end-to-end budgets. T^2 modernizes pretraining scaling laws with pass@k modeling used for test-time scaling, then jointly optimizes pretraining and test-time decisions. Forecasts from T^2 are robust over distinct modeling approaches: measuring joint scaling effect on the task loss and modeling impact on task accuracy. Across eight downstream tasks, we find that when accounting for inference cost, optimal pretraining decisions shift radically into the overtraining regime, well-outside of the range of standard pretraining scaling suites. We validate our results by pretraining heavily overtrained models in the optimal region that T^2 scaling forecasts, confirming their substantially stronger performance compared to pretraining scaling alone. Finally, as frontier LLMs are post-trained, we show that our findings survive the post-training stage, making T^2 scaling meaningful in modern deployments.

Time series models face significant challenges in scaling to handle large and complex datasets, akin to the scaling achieved by large language models (LLMs). The unique characteristics of time series data and the computational demands of model scaling necessitate innovative approaches. While researchers have explored various architectures such as Transformers, LSTMs, and GRUs to address these challenges, we propose a novel solution using RWKV-7, which incorporates meta-learning into its state update mechanism. By integrating RWKV-7's time mix and channel mix components into the transformer-based time series model Timer, we achieve a substantial performance improvement of approximately 1.13 to 43.3x and a 4.5x reduction in training time with 1/23 parameters, all while utilizing fewer parameters. Our code and model weights are publicly available for further research and development at https://github.com/Alic-Li/BlackGoose_Rimer.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have recently become increasingly popular due to their ability to learn complex systems of relations or interactions arising in a broad spectrum of problems ranging from biology and particle physics to social networks and recommendation systems. Despite the plethora of different models for deep learning on graphs, few approaches have been proposed thus far for dealing with graphs that present some sort of dynamic nature (e.g. evolving features or connectivity over time). In this paper, we present Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs), a generic, efficient framework for deep learning on dynamic graphs represented as sequences of timed events. Thanks to a novel combination of memory modules and graph-based operators, TGNs are able to significantly outperform previous approaches being at the same time more computationally efficient. We furthermore show that several previous models for learning on dynamic graphs can be cast as specific instances of our framework. We perform a detailed ablation study of different components of our framework and devise the best configuration that achieves state-of-the-art performance on several transductive and inductive prediction tasks for dynamic graphs.

Video Large Language Models (Video LLMs) have achieved significant success by leveraging a two-stage paradigm: pretraining on large-scale video-text data for vision-language alignment, followed by supervised fine-tuning (SFT) for task-specific capabilities. However, existing approaches struggle with temporal reasoning due to weak temporal correspondence in the data and reliance on the next-token prediction paradigm during training. To address these limitations, we propose TEMPLE (TEMporal Preference Learning), a systematic framework that enhances Video LLMs' temporal reasoning capabilities through Direct Preference Optimization (DPO). To facilitate this, we introduce an automated preference data generation pipeline that systematically constructs preference pairs by selecting videos that are rich in temporal information, designing video-specific perturbation strategies, and finally evaluating model responses on clean and perturbed video inputs. Our temporal alignment features two key innovations: curriculum learning which that progressively increases perturbation difficulty to improve model robustness and adaptability; and "Pre-SFT Alignment'', applying preference optimization before instruction tuning to prioritize fine-grained temporal comprehension. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach consistently improves Video LLM performance across multiple benchmarks with a relatively small set of self-generated DPO data. We further analyze the transferability of DPO data across architectures and the role of difficulty scheduling in optimization. Our findings highlight our TEMPLE as a scalable and efficient complement to SFT-based methods, paving the way for developing reliable Video LLMs. Code is available at https://github.com/lscpku/TEMPLE.

Foundation models for zero-shot time series forecasting face challenges in efficient long-horizon prediction and reproducibility, with existing synthetic-only approaches underperforming on challenging benchmarks. This paper presents TempoPFN, a univariate time series foundation model based on linear Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) pre-trained exclusively on synthetic data. The model uses a GatedDeltaProduct architecture with state-weaving for fully parallelizable training across sequence lengths, eliminating the need for windowing or summarization techniques while maintaining robust temporal state-tracking. Our comprehensive synthetic data pipeline unifies diverse generators, including stochastic differential equations, Gaussian processes, and audio synthesis, with novel augmentations. In zero-shot evaluations on the Gift-Eval benchmark, TempoPFN achieves top-tier competitive performance, outperforming all existing synthetic-only approaches and surpassing the vast majority of models trained on real-world data, while being more efficient than existing baselines by leveraging fully parallelizable training and inference. We open-source our complete data generation pipeline and training code, providing a reproducible foundation for future research.

The Diffusion model, a prevalent framework for image generation, encounters significant challenges in terms of broad applicability due to its extended inference times and substantial memory requirements. Efficient Post-training Quantization (PTQ) is pivotal for addressing these issues in traditional models. Different from traditional models, diffusion models heavily depend on the time-step t to achieve satisfactory multi-round denoising. Usually, t from the finite set {1, ldots, T} is encoded to a temporal feature by a few modules totally irrespective of the sampling data. However, existing PTQ methods do not optimize these modules separately. They adopt inappropriate reconstruction targets and complex calibration methods, resulting in a severe disturbance of the temporal feature and denoising trajectory, as well as a low compression efficiency. To solve these, we propose a Temporal Feature Maintenance Quantization (TFMQ) framework building upon a Temporal Information Block which is just related to the time-step t and unrelated to the sampling data. Powered by the pioneering block design, we devise temporal information aware reconstruction (TIAR) and finite set calibration (FSC) to align the full-precision temporal features in a limited time. Equipped with the framework, we can maintain the most temporal information and ensure the end-to-end generation quality. Extensive experiments on various datasets and diffusion models prove our state-of-the-art results. Remarkably, our quantization approach, for the first time, achieves model performance nearly on par with the full-precision model under 4-bit weight quantization. Additionally, our method incurs almost no extra computational cost and accelerates quantization time by 2.0 times on LSUN-Bedrooms 256 times 256 compared to previous works.

The inherent capabilities of a language model (LM) and the reasoning strategies it employs jointly determine its performance in reasoning tasks. While test-time scaling is regarded as an effective approach to tackling complex reasoning tasks, it incurs substantial computational costs and often leads to "overthinking", where models become trapped in "thought pitfalls". To address this challenge, we propose Route-To-Reason (RTR), a novel unified routing framework that dynamically allocates both LMs and reasoning strategies according to task difficulty under budget constraints. RTR learns compressed representations of both expert models and reasoning strategies, enabling their joint and adaptive selection at inference time. This method is low-cost, highly flexible, and can be seamlessly extended to arbitrary black-box or white-box models and strategies, achieving true plug-and-play functionality. Extensive experiments across seven open source models and four reasoning strategies demonstrate that RTR achieves an optimal trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency among all baselines, achieving higher accuracy than the best single model while reducing token usage by over 60%.

We present Zeus, a unified tuning-free Time Series Foundation Model (TSFM) that delivers superior performance across diverse analysis tasks without any task-specific fine-tuning. Unlike prior studies that primarily focus on zero-shot forecasting but require task-specific tuning for other tasks, Zeus bridges this gap by addressing two fundamental challenges in multi-task generalization. First, to reconcile point-level granularity with long-sequence scalability, Zeus incorporates a multi-scale Transformer featuring point-wise tokenization and a U-shaped hierarchy, effectively balancing fine-grained fidelity with computational efficiency. Second, to accommodate varying inductive biases across different tasks, Zeus introduces Multi-Objective Temporal Masking (MOTM), a unified strategy that supports heterogeneous tasks (e.g., extrapolation, interpolation, and global abstraction) within a single framework. Extensive experiments across five representative tasks demonstrate that Zeus consistently achieves competitive results in tuning-free settings, underscoring its potential as a general-purpose TSFM.

Temporal credit assignment in reinforcement learning is often approached by introducing value estimates at multiple discount factors. A natural next step is to let the actor dynamically route among these temporal heads, using either differentiable attention or heuristic uncertainty weights. This paper argues that such routing can create a numerical shortcut rather than a reliable temporal abstraction. We study this issue in a controlled PPO setting on LunarLander-v2, using the environment as a visual sandbox for diagnosing failure modes. First, we formalize Surrogate Objective Hacking: a differentiable softmax router exposed to the PPO surrogate receives a direct gradient toward advantage heads that are numerically favorable for the current update, even when this routing change does not correspond to improved physical control. Because unnormalized advantages at different discount factors have different effective scales, this creates a scale-discrepancy vulnerability. Second, we identify the Paradox of Temporal Uncertainty in gradient-free error-based routing: short-horizon heads can receive the largest routing share because their prediction targets are easier, even when they are less aligned with delayed task success. As a structural response, we study Target Decoupling: the critic may retain multi-timescale auxiliary heads, but the actor is updated only with the long-horizon advantage. Target Decoupling is not presented as a broad performance booster; in this run set it removes the exploitable actor-side routing pathway and improves the observed worst-seed return. Code is available at https://github.com/ben-dlwlrma/Representation-Over-Routing.

While the ability of language models to elicit facts has been widely investigated, how they handle temporally changing facts remains underexplored. We discover Temporal Heads, specific attention heads primarily responsible for processing temporal knowledge through circuit analysis. We confirm that these heads are present across multiple models, though their specific locations may vary, and their responses differ depending on the type of knowledge and its corresponding years. Disabling these heads degrades the model's ability to recall time-specific knowledge while maintaining its general capabilities without compromising time-invariant and question-answering performances. Moreover, the heads are activated not only numeric conditions ("In 2004") but also textual aliases ("In the year ..."), indicating that they encode a temporal dimension beyond simple numerical representation. Furthermore, we expand the potential of our findings by demonstrating how temporal knowledge can be edited by adjusting the values of these heads.